A New Step to Hell: Donald Trump Unilaterally Denounces Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

President Donald Trump has decided to withdraw his country from another international strategic agreement, which will have a terrible impact on the mutual control of the U.S. and Russian arsenals.

“Russia has violated the agreement. They have been violating it for many years,” President Trump said. Thus, from that moment on, the two major treaties signed just before the collapse of the USSR disappear. The first agreement to be canceled was the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, signed in Paris on Nov. 19, 1990 between NATO and the Warsaw Pact members. In 2007, Russia suspended its participation in the treaty, before formally denouncing it in 2015. The second agreement is the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987. The treaty was regarded at the time as a decisive step toward establishing forms of mutual control over the existing arsenal, expressly forbidding the use of a whole series of ballistic missiles (ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles) with ranges of 500 km to 5,500 km (approximately 311 miles to 3,418 miles). It stopped the real crisis that existed between NATO and the Warsaw Treaty, because the USSR had been deploying nuclear-fueled SS-20 missiles heading toward major Western capitals since the early 1980s.

What could this be about? Some experts are talking about U.S. dissatisfaction with the new 9M729 Russian missile system, whose range would exceed 500 km (approximately 311 miles) and which would violate the INF.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison recently said that this new type of missile “could hit any of our countries in Europe and hit America in Alaska.” Concerns have been also raised by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who said, “We analyzed the information and we are extremely worried … Russia has not provided any credible answers on this new missile. Allies believe that, in the absence of any credible answer from Russia on this new missile, the most plausible assessment would be that Russia is in violation of the Treaty.”*

This new type of missile, 9M729 SSC-X-8, would actually be an improved version of the Caliber-NK missile, designed by OKB Innovator in Ekaterinenburg. According to reports arriving from various sources close to military intelligence agencies, it would be a long-range ground-based cruise missile with a range of about 3000 km (approximately 1,864 miles), meaning that a missile launched from one of the bases near Moscow could really hit any target in Europe. Launched from Siberia, such a missile could reach as far as Los Angeles.

Is it just about the U.S.-Russia bilateral relationship? Not in any way, because, in fact, America’s current fear concerns the capabilities of the Chinese army, which is undergoing a process of modernization and is benefiting from extremely generous funding, and which has allowed the emergence of new types of very high-performance weapons, successfully tested and operational. The strengthened military cooperation between Russia and China, reconfirmed by Chinese troop participation in the Russian military exercise that involved nearly 300,000 troops in the Far East, also includes a very important technological sector. That is especially so in the area where the Russians excel – missile engines – and, according to other sources, miniaturization of explosives, classical and nuclear, for a series of ballistic missiles. It is very likely that President Trump’s decision now will have a direct effect not only on the future Russian production of such weapons, but also on the desire of other states holding nuclear weapons to develop their own capabilities in the field. But that requires time, specific equipment and many high-level specialists. Perhaps, by adopting the fastest way to obtain new assurances for their national security, these states will begin to think about new bilateral or multilateral military assistance agreements, which, it seems, is not at all a theoretical option, given that all (except for Israel) are directly linked to Russia and China within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its growing military capacity.

But there could still be a snowball effect. President Trump’s gesture could lead to the end of negotiations on the possibility of extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expires in February 2021. If this happens, then all the gates will be opened again to a terrible nuclear conflict. The first START treaty was signed in July 1991 by President George W. Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and entered into force on Dec. 5, 1994. This treaty was extended on Dec. 5, 2009 under Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama. So, if it disappears, there will be no way for any mutual verification of the strategic weapons arsenals, as there will be no verification mechanisms. I am very afraid that we are very close to the moment when, in the name of stupid ideologies, irresponsible and senile leaders will decide on a devastating war.

*Editor’s note: Although these remarks were accurately translated, the source of the precise statements could not be verified.