What Is the Objective of Trump’s Impeachment?

House Democrats voted to proceed with impeaching Donald Trump Tuesday for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The decision to impeach marks the point of no return in a battle to the death with Trump, which will probably define the political future of the United States and the rest of the world for the next five years. But how will this end?

I am convinced that impeachment will not amount to anything. Let me explain. Next week, the House of Representatives will vote on it, and as the House currently contains a Democratic majority, there is no doubt that the articles of impeachment will be approved.* All the House needs is a simple majority. However, this is only the first step. From there it will pass to the Senate, where the impeachment trial will take place, and where it will be decided if the charges will be dismissed or Trump will be convicted.

Here, the situation will be complicated for the Democrats because the Senate has a Republican majority, and what’s more, the final verdict on impeachment can only be rendered by a super majority, that is, two-thirds of the entire Senate. At the moment, the Democrats have 45 senators and two independents on their side. Assuming they can obtain votes from the independents, the Democrats need to convince 19 Republican senators to vote against Trump and convict him. This is virtually impossible. This leads me to the million-dollar question: If the Democrats know it is impossible to defeat Trump via an impeachment of this nature, why are they doing it?

Two hypotheses occur to me that can help answer this question. The first is that the Democrats have something hidden up their sleeve, something they consider so powerful that it will convince at least 19 republicans to vote against Trump. Something so explosive that there is no chance the president will be acquitted. To me, this seems unlikely to happen, but it must be considered.

The second hypothesis is that the Democrats are convinced that regardless of whether Trump is acquitted or convicted, impeachment will sufficiently damage his reputation, and he will not be reelected. This seems to me the most probable goal, although I do not think impeachment will damage Trump’s reputation any worse than any of the things he already says and does himself.

A third possibility, suggested by Reny Bake,** although something I have also thought about, is that the Democrats already know for a fact Trump will be reelected, but will use the impeachment as an electoral weapon against Republican senators in swing states, with the hope of achieving a majority in the Senate.

In any case, considering that possibility is a risky, almost desperate gamble by the Democrats, and it is more likely they will shoot themselves in the foot.

In the meantime, the U.S. economy is still going strong, so much so that the analysts who a few months ago claimed a recession was imminent are already beginning to change their tune, not to the point of dismissing it outright, but at least delaying its arrival. All this will play in favor of Trump’s reelection campaign. In spite of all of the many outrageous things the president says and does, he has made a variety of good decisions since the start of his presidency, like lowering taxes and removing regulatory controls. The results continue to be seen in the economy, and as one of his predecessors so rightly said, (a Democrat, incidentally) “It’s the economy, stupid.”

*Editor’s note: The full House of Representatives voted to impeach Donald Trump on Dec. 18.

**Editor’s note: Reny Bake is a Guatemalan writer and geopolitical analyst.