Blinken, Wang Reveal New Direction for US, China

Published in UDN
(Taiwan) on 26 December 2022
by Chen I-hsin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
In their recent conversation, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and People’s Republic of China Foreign Minister Wang Yi each expressed their respective positions. However, the conversation also revealed a new direction in U.S.-China relations for the upcoming years. Next year, Blinken will visit China to lay the groundwork for the second in-person meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. In fact, the main purpose of this recent talk between Blinken and Wang was to let each party understand the other’s position before the meeting next year.

First, Blinken and Wang both believe that relations between the U.S. and China are of the utmost importance for the two countries’ international relations. Their conversation revealed that any notion of cutting ties between the two is entirely unfounded because the U.S. and China need each other. Second, although the two cannot cut ties, high levels of competition are unavoidable. Still, both expressed that competition will not and need not mean that the two sides are moving toward a conflict. To prevent competition from turning into a conflict or even a war, both sides agreed that they must establish the guardrail of intense communication to resolve differences.

Third, Taiwan is a critical central interest for China. The U.S. hopes that both sides of the strait can avoid a war, restart dialogue and move toward a peaceful resolution. When Biden and Xi met for the first time in November, the two hoped to draw red lines for the sake of their relationship. While President Biden suggested that China and Taiwan avoid war and restart dialogue, Xi did not respond directly. In this recent phone call, the U.S. and China made clear commitments to those red lines, which may be objectives that both parties strive for in the future.

Fourth, before and after the Group of 20 summit, participating world leaders flocked to Xi, hoping to strengthen economic and trade relations with China. Xi was like a kingpin in his interactions with them, except when he interacted with Biden. America’s military strength and high-tech might are the main reasons China takes the U.S. especially seriously.

All communist countries, as well as similar authoritarian countries, view international relations through the lens of strength, and naturally, China is no exception. This is why it is especially respectful toward the U.S. The U.S. requested that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited invest in factories in the U.S. to fill in gaps in the American chip manufacturing supply chain. Because China is far behind the U.S. in terms of chip development, of course it hopes that the U.S. will leave opportunities for China in the chip supply chain instead of ruthlessly cutting it out.

Fifth, the conversation between Blinken and Wang revealed that the two countries are going to continue developing even more opportunities for cooperation. The U.S. and China have already agreed to restart national defense talks, as well as to continue cooperation on climate change issues. During their conversation, Blinken and Wang revealed that the two countries might possibly cooperate in strategic pandemic prevention.

Ever since the White Paper Revolution, authorities in Beijing have loosened their COVID-zero policy. However, according to a medical research report from Fudan University in Shanghai, after the COVID-zero policy is dropped, China could see more than 1.5 million coronavirus deaths in China. Therefore, Wang expressed hope that China and the U.S. could strengthen cooperation in strategic pandemic prevention so the Chinese people can resume normal life even earlier and the Chinese economy can recover.

Finally, China needs the U.S. and the rest of the world, just as the U.S. and the rest of the world need China. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the global supply chain has either been unbalanced or broken. Many strong nations regard protecting their own critical industry supply chains as an important national security treasure. Therefore, many entrepreneurs and experts have proposed that the era of globalization and liberalization has passed. Looking at the political and economic relations between the U.S. and China, as well as other large countries, globalization and liberalization have a new look because of unbalanced supply chains and restructured and rebuilt chains. Still, the era of globalization and liberalization has yet to completely ebb.


【專家之眼】布林肯和王毅通話透露美中新方向

美國國務卿布林肯與中國外長王毅日前通話,雖說是各自表述立場,但卻也透露美中關係未來數年的新方向,布林肯將在明年初訪問中國大陸,為美國總統拜登與中國國家主席習近平第二次實體峰會鋪路。甚至布林肯與王毅通話的主要目的則是為明年的布王會的會前通話,讓對方了解彼此的立場。

首先,他們兩人都認為美中關係是兩國國際關係中的重中之重。他們的對話顯示,美中之間的脫鉤完全是子虛烏有之事,因為美中彼此都互相需要。其次,儘管美中不可能脫鉤,但高度競爭卻不可免。但雙方都表示競爭不會也不必然代表雙方會走向衝突。為了避免競爭轉變成衝突,甚至戰爭,雙方也都同意必需設定密集溝通與解決分歧的防護欄。

第三,台灣是中國的最重要核心利益之一,美方則期望兩岸能避免戰爭,重啟對話機制,走向和平發展。在十一月雙方第一次實體峰會時,美中兩國曾希望為雙方關係畫下紅線,但在拜登總統提出兩岸應避免戰爭與重啟對話機制後,習近平並未做出直接回應。這次雙方通話也為針對紅線做出明確的承諾,不無可能會是雙方未來努力追求的目標之一。

第四,在二十國峰會(G20)前後,與會的各國領導人都對習近平趨之若鶩,爭相期望與中國加強經貿關係。習近平也都以老大哥的姿態和他們交往,唯獨對美國總統拜登改容相見。美國的軍事實力,與高科技力量是讓中國特別重視的主要原因。

所有共產主義國家包括類似的獨裁國家都是以實力原則看待國際關係,中國自然也不例外,所以對美國才特別尊重。美國要求台積電在美國設廠投資,補足了美國製造業中晶片供應鏈的漏洞。由於中國在晶片發展上與美國相去甚遠,自然希望美國在晶片的供應鏈上網開一面,不對中國趕盡殺絕。

第五,這次布王通話也顯示美中兩國會繼續朝向更多合作的方向發展。中美兩國已經同意恢復重啟國防領域方面的對話,也同意繼續在氣候變遷議題上合作。這次布林肯與王毅在通話中也透露兩國不無可能在戰略防疫進行合作。

自從「白紙運動」之後,北京當局已下定鬆綁清零政策,但據上海復旦大學一份醫學研究報告顯示,清零政策取消後,中國大陸因新冠疫情感染致死的人數可能會超過150萬人。因此,王毅表示,希望中美兩國未來能在戰略防疫上加強合作,以便早日讓中國人民的生活恢復正常,並在經濟上走向復甦。

最後,中國需要美國與世界,美國與世界也需要中國。俄烏戰爭之後,全球供應鏈不是失調就是斷鏈,許多強國也都以維護自己重要產業供應鏈,作為國家安全的重要寶藏。因此,許多企業家與專家學者倡言,全球化與自由化的時代已經一去不復返。惟觀諸美中兩國與大國的政經關係,全球化與自由化的時代雖因供應鏈而失調、斷鏈重整與重建而有一番新氣象,但全球化與自由化的時代並未完全退潮。
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