Pragmatic Relationship

Published in El Heraldo de México
(Mexico) on 12 July 2024
by José Carreño Figueras (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephen Routledge. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Mexico's adherence to the North American concept has geopolitical and geoeconomic overtones.

Important as it is from an economic point of view, the recent announcement by the U.S. and Mexican governments against the re-export of Chinese steel and aluminum to the North American market has important political implications. First, it reaffirms Mexico's willingness to avoid a clash with its largest trading partner in a dispute that was also highly symbolic, given that the beneficiary would have been a third party and the main U.S. competitor on a global scale. It also allows us to do a favor for Brazil, although I do not recall Brazil doing any favors for Mexico.

The decision expressed in a joint communiqué by Presidents Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico and Joe Biden of the United States is a new sign of Mexico's apparent interest in resolving or overcoming some trade irritants that, according to experts, it would probably lose in mediation panels, such as the dispute over transgenic corn.

The consideration implied by the reaffirmation of Mexico's adherence to the North American concept has geopolitical and geoeconomic overtones. First, it facilitates the cancellation of legal disputes that could have become arguments against investment in Mexico and the full exploitation of the so-called nearshoring, that is, the relocation of companies from Asia to Mexico.

It certainly does not eliminate all trade disputes, nor does it mean a surrender of Mexican interests, but it does provide a welcome sign of pragmatism. López Obrador himself stated that “It is very important to maintain the partnership with Canada and the United States, as established in the trade agreement,” and “Mexico has the possibility of importing steel and other goods to the United States and Canada and benefits from that because plants and factories are established in our country […] there is investment … “

The Mexican reality is a literally intimate proximity, determined by geography and society, with the world's greatest power. The good and the bad is that it implies an enormous economic proximity and, if you will, a problem to be solved: how to reduce dependence, since 80% of Mexican trade is with its North American partners, the United States and Canada. But it is a problem that Mexico shares with Canada, which concentrates 77% of its international trade in the United States and Mexico.

Beyond that, the reality is that Mexico has no alternative. It can, and should, seek ways to reduce its dependence on a single market, but it should also be remembered that this has been sought before with varying degrees of enthusiasm, but always with little success. In exchange for the agreement, Mexico asked to compensate for the ban on Chinese steel by importing Brazilian steel. This is all well and good as an expression of regional interest, but regardless of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being "brother Lula" and in trouble, it is worth remembering that Brazil has rarely been in solidarity with Mexico.


La adherencia mexicana al concepto de Norteamérica, tiene tintes geopolíticos y geoeconómicos

Importante como es desde un punto de vista económico, el reciente anuncio de los gobiernos de Estados Unidos y México contra la reexportación de acero y aluminio chinos al mercado norteamericano tiene implicaciones políticas de importancia. De entrada, reafirma la voluntad mexicana de evitar un encontronazo con su mayor socio comercial en una disputa que tenía también mucho de simbolismo, dado que el beneficiario hubiera sido un tercero y el principal competidor estadounidense a escala mundial. Permite también hacer un favor a Brasil, aunque no recuerdo, que haya hecho favores a México.

La decisión expresada en un comunicado conjunto de los presidentes Andrés Manuel López Obrador, de México, y Joe Biden, de Estados Unidos, es una nueva señal del aparente interés mexicano en resolver o superar algunos irritantes comerciales que según expertos probablemente perdería en paneles de mediación, como la disputa a propósito del maíz transgénico.

La consideración que implica la reafirmación de la adherencia mexicana al concepto de Norteamérica, tiene tintes geopolíticos y geoeconómicos. Primero, facilita la cancelación de disputas legales que pudieran haber llegado a convertirse en argumentos contra la inversión en México y al pleno aprovechamiento del llamado nearshoring, o sea, la reubicación de empresas de Asia a México.

Ciertamente, no elimina todas las disputas comerciales ni significa una claudicación de los intereses mexicanos, pero da una bienvenida señal de pragmatismo. López Obrador mismo consignó que "nos importa mucho mantener la sociedad con Canadá y Estados Unidos, lo que se establece en el tratado comercial. México tiene la posibilidad de importar acero y otros bienes a Estados Unidos y Canadá y se beneficia con eso porque se establecen fábricas, en nuestro país, hay inversión".

La realidad mexicana es una cercanía literalmente íntima, determinada por geografía y sociedad, con la mayor potencia mundial. Lo bueno y lo malo es que implica una enorme cercanía económica y, si se quiere, un problema a resolver: cómo reducir la dependencia, toda vez que un 80 por ciento del comercio mexicano se realiza con sus socios norteamericanos, Estados Unidos y Canadá. Pero es un problema que México comparte con Canadá, que concentra un 77 por ciento de su comercio internacional en Estados Unidos y México.

Más allá, la realidad es que México no tiene otra alternativa. Puede, y debe, buscar vías para reducir su dependencia de un solo mercado, pero también hay que recordar que esto se ha buscado antes con diversos grados de entusiasmo, pero siempre con poco éxito. A cambio del acuerdo, México pidió compensar la prohibición al acero chino con la importación de acero brasileño. Bien como expresión de interés regional, pero al margen que Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sea "el hermano Lula" y en problemas, valdría la pena recordar que Brasil ha sido rara vez solidario con México.
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