Trump’s Plan*

*Editor’s note: On March 4, 2022, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

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Political analyst Denis Denisov on the topic of what the odds are that the Ukrainian conflict could be settled under the new U.S. administration.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose inauguration will take place in January 2025, made a lot of statements during his election campaign about settling the Ukrainian conflict. However, for now it’s unclear if his team has an actual, concrete plan.

Even if there’s no such document or, at least, it’s not available to the general public, we could analyze all of Trump’s statements made before the election, and, on this basis, form, at the very least, a general understanding of his basic positions and key aspirations. But, as practice has shown, this is also a dead-end approach, based on the fact that there was a minimal amount of specifics while abstract and pretty phrases are barely suitable for any future solutions.

Besides, we have experience working with the previous version of Trump; we have the knowledge of the style of his work, his attitude toward other politicians, his aspirations. This will become the foundation of our attempt to foresee initiatives that will turn into real propositions in the near future. They will be brought to Moscow and Kyiv (very possibly circumventing Brussels, Paris, Berlin and London) by the new special envoy of the U.S. president., appointed either for Ukraine or for the settlement of this conflict.

It seems that Trump is really eager to get a Nobel Peace Prize because a lot of people in the U.S. have one and he doesn’t. This is a trivial but a very important premise of Trump’s active position regarding the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Specifically this conflict, because currently, in essence, there are only two conflicts for which you can get such a prize. And we all know the new U.S. president’s position regarding the Arab-Israeli one. As a result, he shouldn’t be counting on that track.

Does Trump want to settle the Ukrainian conflict or to stop it, to freeze it, just superficially? It would seem that the latter is true, since that can be achieved not only more quickly but also more effectively, at least from the American point of view. Moscow has stressed many times that it doesn’t want to freeze the conflict; Russia wants it resolved. “The essence of our proposition is not in some temporary truce or cease-fire, as the West wants it,” Vladimir Putin said earlier. But to settle this conflict, they’ll have to study all its intricacies and contradictions, analyze preconditions, and delve deeply into history. Trump, most likely, has neither the time nor the desire for this. As a result, the first propositions from his administration will be about a cease-fire, buffer zones, and upholding a regime of silence.

Knowing Trump’s position regarding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it would be reasonable to expect that he, without any concern, will opt for freezing Ukraine’s integration into NATO, putting it in writing. Also, with the respect toward the Russian president that he feels, it would seem quite logical if he informally recognized four new Russian regions as integral parts of the Russian Federation — but, naturally, without any official statements.

Sanctions policy could well slacken, but here we certainly shouldn’t hope that, with one stroke of the pen, all restrictions against Russia will be lifted. Regardless of his attitude toward them, Trump sees them as an effective pressure tool in the dialogue with our country.

On the one hand, there are all the prerequisites for us to expect that the Republican and his administration will implement a policy of the total destruction of global security agreements — from New START to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But the U.S. representatives will also be open, it would seem, to starting new discussions regarding regional (European) and global security and stability.

Only the lazy haven’t talked about the fact that the future U.S. president will try (and will definitely be successful) to nudge the weight of financial and military support of Ukraine from the shoulders of the U.S. to the EU countries. But it’s not so simple or obvious. The thing is, Trump himself and his entourage clearly understand that, as of the present moment, Ukraine is a tool for deterring the Russian Federation. If the first contacts on the surface-level settlement of this conflict bear fruit, there’s an opportunity for the warming of Russian-American relations. However, if there are no results, a scenario is possible where Trump would go for even more escalation than the previous leader of the White House has done. As such, the support that the Joe Biden administration granted Kyiv could be viewed as a prelude to a large war.

We can’t forget that the main sponsors of Trump’s campaign were the representatives of the military-industrial complex. In their view, as well as in the view of many “hawks” dwelling in the Republican camp, the situation around Ukraine is a great pressure instrument against Russia and, therefore, against China. So, any failures can push the quite impulsive Trump into changing his position.

On the other hand, his team should see the ascension of people who truly realize the pointlessness of financing Kyiv. We can simply remember how one of Trump’s team members openly mocked the Ukrainian leader. For instance, billionaire Elon Musk, who, along with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, will head the new Department of Government Efficiency, pointed out that Volodymyr Zelenskyy lives in some parallel reality. Aside from that, Trump himself, it seems, doesn’t harbor much warm feeling toward Zelenskyy.

One way or another, we can already state that the U.S. has changed and will continue to change in the future. It will lead to a more stable world or, on the contrary, to total chaos — we’ll soon learn which. At least, it will be interesting.