Iran Has No Interest in a Stable Iraq

After the withdrawal of U.S. troops, tensions within Mesopotamia only appear to have been calmed. Iran is lying in wait for its chance.

Whether the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq is good or bad is still not certain by a long shot. The Iraqis are likely to have mixed feelings, and the revolutionary guard in neighboring Iran is likely to count the drawdown as a victory.

Rising budget deficits and an election campaign are determining the strategic agenda of the U.S. military. This policy has created a trip into the unknown at a time when the Middle East and North Africa offer little certainty except that nothing will be as it was before, that there has not been social or religious revolutions for a while, and that the only serious counterweight to a strengthening Iran is an America with the strength of a regional fleet, a base in Bahrain, and, in case of failure, Israeli allied forces.

“A Hornets’ Nest of Arab Tribes”

The land of Mesopotamia, which was labeled “Iraq” by the British between the the two world wars, is not at the edge of the Arab world. Iraq is the heartland of the Fertile Crescent, a vast reservoir of oil, and the location of a struggle for primacy between Tehran and Washington. Tensions in the region only appear to have been calmed. The word of warning given by the early 20th century British Prime Minister Asquith still holds true: The region is “a hornets’ nest of Arab tribes.”

You are better off keeping your distance. If only there was a way. The history of the power struggle between the U.S. and Iran can be traced back through three wars: the Iran-Iraq War, which began after the ascent of the Ayatollah Khomeini who, in 1979, threw torches into the House of Islam; the Gulf War of 1990-91, which a coalition of Westerners and Arabs won against Saddam Hussein in less than 100 hours; and the American-British invasion of 2003, which was militarily successful but now ends in a strategic defeat.

There is a faint hope that the Americans are leaving behind a country that is now stable, at peace with itself, and ready to fight as an American ally against Iran. In Tehran, people are striving for the opposite with growing success. Iran is using its social and religious networks, influence, aid money, and military support to help like-minded factions on the other side of their uncontrollable border with Iraq.

The greatest danger lies in an Iranian victory getting to the collective head of its people, leading them to continue building nuclear weapons unchecked. The moment of a fateful decision is coming: either to live with Iranian bombs or to bomb Iran. The decision will have global consequences.