Barack, an Awkward Move
Published in La Stampa
(Italy) on 26 September 2009
by Vittorio Emanuele Parsi (link to original)
After the vigorous and inspired speech delivered just two days ago to the UN Security Council ago by Barack Obama, concluded with an unanimous vote against nuclear proliferation and in favor of a future general nuclear disarmament, the discovery of a new clandestine Iranian nuclear site has been source of embarrassment for the American administration.
In fact, its existence sounds like a mocking challenge not only to the United Nations, which had repeatedly and explicitly forbidden Iran to pursue its uranium enrichment program, but also to the new course ostensibly undertaken by the U.S. president since its debut. But more surprising is that the president was probably informed about the existence of this secret place by his own intelligence and even by his predecessor George W. Bush. If so, paradoxically, the real news would be no longer the discovery of the illegal plant, instead the discovery’s concealment and the reason and timing of the revelation. The whole dynamic of events seems to indicate at least that the White House might have played a bad hand in its poker game with Iran nuclearly.
Just like he had done in the early hours of his mandate, two days ago Obama has cleverly modulated the tones of his words; openness to negotiation and to pursue the diplomatic route, but also a clear warning: America would not tolerate a fait accompli policy by Tehran. Then, within 24 hours, Obama had outlined the steps of a very clear strategy. First, in the General Assembly, he stated the American choice in favor of the "pragmatic multilateralism" (because even the United States can no longer delude themselves to resolve by their own challenges that concern all), while calling on other States to share a collective effort to make the world a better place. Then, at the Security Council, the president has spoken of a shared responsibility regarding nuclear, that binds the 'legitimate' nuclear powers to make an effort in favor of a general disarmament, and all other states to renounce nuclear weapons.
Put aside the nobility of his purpose, it was hard to miss - in that 'one-two’ game played by the president, even through a risky personal, political and mediatic exposure - a clear warning for Iran or Korea to desist from go further, showing them a world, at least in prospect, compactly contrary to their ambitions. But if Obama was already aware of the discovery of Iranian new clandestine site, then the unanimous vote, that seemed to have been a success for Obama and for his umpteenth "preventive warning" to Iran, becomes a mess, or at least another tie in a strategy that has too many constraints already. The noise of the success achieved on 1st Avenue forces the president to take a more intransigent position, it erodes his maneuver space, it consumes the already limited time available to try to find a solution that we all know may not even exist. In a word, it increases the seriousness of a crisis that is likely to bring the Middle East (and not only [the Middle East]) on the brink of the abyss entirely on its own. For now, Obama has received the Western solidarity, as important as expected. But there’s the danger of wrecking an important project just opened at UN Headquarters, which aimed to gradually bring even China and Russia among the ones in favor of a possible tightening of sanctions against Iran. Let alone the consequences that could arise in the Arab and Islamic world where any awkward American move would be immediately interpreted as the last of the many plots, and thus burn the cautious expectations raised by Barack Obama in his brilliant speech in Cairo just a few months ago.
In fact, its existence sounds like a mocking challenge not only to the United Nations, which had repeatedly and explicitly forbidden Iran to pursue its uranium enrichment program, but also to the new course ostensibly undertaken by the U.S. president since its debut. But more surprising is that the president was probably informed about the existence of this secret place by his own intelligence and even by his predecessor George W. Bush. If so, paradoxically, the real news would be no longer the discovery of the illegal plant, instead the discovery’s concealment and the reason and timing of the revelation. The whole dynamic of events seems to indicate at least that the White House might have played a bad hand in its poker game with Iran nuclearly.
Just like he had done in the early hours of his mandate, two days ago Obama has cleverly modulated the tones of his words; openness to negotiation and to pursue the diplomatic route, but also a clear warning: America would not tolerate a fait accompli policy by Tehran. Then, within 24 hours, Obama had outlined the steps of a very clear strategy. First, in the General Assembly, he stated the American choice in favor of the "pragmatic multilateralism" (because even the United States can no longer delude themselves to resolve by their own challenges that concern all), while calling on other States to share a collective effort to make the world a better place. Then, at the Security Council, the president has spoken of a shared responsibility regarding nuclear, that binds the 'legitimate' nuclear powers to make an effort in favor of a general disarmament, and all other states to renounce nuclear weapons.
Put aside the nobility of his purpose, it was hard to miss - in that 'one-two’ game played by the president, even through a risky personal, political and mediatic exposure - a clear warning for Iran or Korea to desist from go further, showing them a world, at least in prospect, compactly contrary to their ambitions. But if Obama was already aware of the discovery of Iranian new clandestine site, then the unanimous vote, that seemed to have been a success for Obama and for his umpteenth "preventive warning" to Iran, becomes a mess, or at least another tie in a strategy that has too many constraints already. The noise of the success achieved on 1st Avenue forces the president to take a more intransigent position, it erodes his maneuver space, it consumes the already limited time available to try to find a solution that we all know may not even exist. In a word, it increases the seriousness of a crisis that is likely to bring the Middle East (and not only [the Middle East]) on the brink of the abyss entirely on its own. For now, Obama has received the Western solidarity, as important as expected. But there’s the danger of wrecking an important project just opened at UN Headquarters, which aimed to gradually bring even China and Russia among the ones in favor of a possible tightening of sanctions against Iran. Let alone the consequences that could arise in the Arab and Islamic world where any awkward American move would be immediately interpreted as the last of the many plots, and thus burn the cautious expectations raised by Barack Obama in his brilliant speech in Cairo just a few months ago.
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