President Calderon delayed his first state visit to Washington, D.C., by 1,265 days. Many criticized him for this delay, because Mexican leaders usually have made the trip during their first year in office. Anyway, the fact is that Calderon finally went to the United States Capitol as head of the Mexican state, with all the pomp and circumstance involved in a visit of this kind. What purpose will this long-anticipated visit serve?
In the first place, it’s usually a good thing when a Mexican president visits Washington to meet, not only with his counterpart, but with the elite who work within what is called “the beltway” that loops around the U.S. capital. This includes President Obama, top officials, senators, representatives, members of the federal judiciary, correspondents from the mainstream media, lobbyists, ambassadors, and so on. All the “political fauna” who swarm the U.S. empire, that area on the banks of the Potomac River, bordering Maryland and Virginia, founded by the fathers of the country.
Many of these characters will cordially receive President Calderon. After all, he is the ruler of the nation’s southern neighbor. Additionally, the relationship between the two neighboring countries is good, especially economically, which is what matters most to Americans.
As we saw yesterday, from the beginning of the tour, Calderon was going to be pampered big time. And boy, does the president need this; he has had some dark days. A party candidate was killed in Tamaulipas; they kidnapped one of his historical leaders; and, even worse, he lost the mayorship of Merida, one of his electoral strongholds. I suppose evidence of warmth and friendship received in Washington will be great for Calderon. And beyond that, which always helps, the Mexican president will surely be able to unlock any other issue presently stuck in the bilateral agenda, in addition to sending a strong message against the despicable Arizona SB 1070 law.
All this may be ample justification for the state visit to Washington. We are convinced, however, that Mexico and the U.S. should deepen their economic integration — and we’ll be frustrated, because major announcements seem unlikely.
I don’t think there will be a signal from the two countries to seek a second, more effective stage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It’s not a good time for the U.S. to introduce this issue to the public agenda. After all, the Democratic Party (traditionally, the more protectionist trade party in that country) controls the executive branch and both houses of Congress. And that party runs the risk of losing the majority in the House of Representatives and the majority necessary to avoid filibuster in Senate midterm elections next November. At this time, political conditions don’t exist for posing an improved NAFTA. NAFTA, by the way, infuriates several unions that are part of the Democratic electoral base; they are angry about negative consequences NAFTA has had for various sectors of the U.S. economy.
And we won’t even mention immigration reform. Although it was one of Obama’s campaign promises, the majority of politicians in Washington see this issue as a kind of electoral kryptonite. Because they do not want to risk losing their jobs in November, the reform is now frozen. It’s no wonder that inside traders give its approval this year a probability of seven percent.
20-May-2010
Juegos de Poder
Leo Zuckermann
Apapacho a la orilla del Potomac
El presidente Calderón se tardó mil 265 días para hacer su primera visita de Estado a Washington, D C Muchos lo criticaron por esta tardanza ya que usualmente los mandatarios mexicanos realizaban esta visita durante su primer año de gobierno. Como sea, el hecho es que Calderón finalmente llegó a la capital estadunidense como jefe del Estado mexicano, con toda la pompa y circunstancia que implica una visita de este tipo. ¿De qué servirá este viaje tan esperado?
En primer lugar, por lo general resulta positivo que un presidente mexicano visite Washington para reunirse no sólo con su homólogo sino con la élite que trabaja dentro de lo que allá se denomina como el beltway, es decir, el periférico que rodea la capital de Estados Unidos. Esto incluye al presidente Obama, sus principales funcionarios, senadores, representantes, miembros del Poder Judicial federal, corresponsales de los principales medios de comunicación, cabilderos, embajadores, etcétera. Toda la “fauna política” que pulula en la capital del imperio estadunidense y que los fundadores de ese país confinaron en un pantano a las orillas del río Potomac, en la frontera entre Maryland y Virginia.
Varios de estos personajes recibirán muy cordialmente al presidente Calderón. Al fin y al cabo, se trata del gobernante de la nación vecina del sur. Además, las relaciones de los dos países vecinos se encuentran en buenos términos, sobre todo en lo económico que es lo que más les importa a los estadunidenses.
Como vimos ayer desde el principio de la gira, a Calderón lo van a apapachar en grande. Y vaya que lo necesita el Presidente, quien ha tenido unos días aciagos. A su partido le mataron un candidato en Tamaulipas, le secuestraron a uno de sus líderes históricos y, para colmo, perdió la alcaldía de Mérida, uno de sus bastiones electorales. Supongo que a Calderón le vendrán bien las muestras de calidez y amistad que reciba en Washington.
Más allá de esto, que siempre ayuda, el Presidente mexicano seguramente logrará destrabar alguno que otro asunto que se encuentre atorado en la agenda bilateral, amén de mandar un mensaje contundente en contra de esa deleznable Ley SB 1070 de Arizona.
Todo esto justifica, con creces, la visita de Estado a Washington. Sin embargo, los que estamos convencidos de que México y Estados Unidos deben profundizar su integración económica, nos quedaremos con cierta frustración porque, en este rubro, todo indica que no habrá grandes anuncios.
No habrá, me parece, un mensaje de las dos naciones de buscar una segunda etapa, de mayor vigor, del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN). No es un buen momento en Estados Unidos para introducir este tema en la agenda pública. Al fin y al cabo, el Partido Demócrata (tradicionalmente el más proteccionista en la política comercial de ese país) es el que controla el Ejecutivo y ambas cámaras del Congreso. Y ese partido corre el riesgo de perder la mayoría en la de Representantes y la mayoría calificada para evitar el filibusterismo en el Senado en las próximas elecciones intermedias de noviembre. No existen, en este momento, las condiciones políticas para plantear un TLCAN mejorado, lo cual, por ejemplo, enfurecería aún más a varios sindicatos (que son parte de la base electoral de los demócratas) que de por sí están muy enojados por las consecuencias negativas para el empleo que ha tenido el TLCAN en varios sectores de la economía estadunidense.
Ni hablar, también, de una reforma migratoria. Aunque fue una de las promesas de Obama en su campaña, la mayoría de los políticos en Washington ven este tema como una especie de criptonita electoral. Y como no quieren arriesgarse a perder sus puestos en noviembre, pues dicha reforma está congelada. No por nada los apostadores de Intrade le dan una probabilidad de 7% de que efectivamente sea aprobada este año.
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link
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It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.
Thinly veiled article, calling for unregulated NAFTA provisions, & a nasty shot at Arizona for daring to try and protect it’s borders from invasion.
Obama is not trusted with “immigration reform” because the American people believe all he’ll do is grant amnesty (again) to all the illegals that violated our laws and invaded our country…it is also a given that the “reform” will simply eliminate the U.S. border, allowing unrestrained migration of anyone & everyone that wants to come to America, while the Mexican government does NOT reciprocate, still harassing & controlling American citizen that might want to invade…err, “immigrate”, to Mexico.
If you’re so hot on erasing our border…in the name of international humanitarianism, of course…then why doesn’t the U.S. simply annex Mexico?…most Americans see this as an eminently practical solution to the problem, most are in favor of it.
So lay down your arms & disband your military, accept American law & American courts, with all the rights & privileges thereof, and become one of our states, ok?
Unlike the illegals however, you’ll be required to learn English, in the new American school system.
Thinly veiled article, calling for unregulated NAFTA provisions, & a nasty shot at Arizona for daring to try and protect it’s borders from invasion.
Obama is not trusted with “immigration reform” because the American people believe all he’ll do is grant amnesty (again) to all the illegals that violated our laws and invaded our country…it is also a given that the “reform” will simply eliminate the U.S. border, allowing unrestrained migration of anyone & everyone that wants to come to America, while the Mexican government does NOT reciprocate, still harassing & controlling American citizen that might want to invade…err, “immigrate”, to Mexico.
If you’re so hot on erasing our border…in the name of international humanitarianism, of course…then why doesn’t the U.S. simply annex Mexico?…most Americans see this as an eminently practical solution to the problem, most are in favor of it.
So lay down your arms & disband your military, accept American law & American courts, with all the rights & privileges thereof, and become one of our states, ok?
Unlike the illegals however, you’ll be required to learn English, in the new American school system.