Republican Primaries: Halfway Through

Herman Cain is promoting his book rather than fighting for his place; Mitt Romney changes views on demand; Rick Perry is prepping to attack, and Newt Gingrich has yet to say his final word. Oh yeah, does anyone have any idea what’s up with Obama?

Without too much preamble, let’s get straight to business: a snapshot of the Republican presidential primaries, about halfway through. And then to finish with a couple of words about the opponent awaiting the winner, Barack Obama.

Herman Cain: We’ll open with the two most important facts regarding the most intriguing candidate the Republicans have to offer: 1) In the majority of the most recently published polls, Cain leads in the race; 2) he won’t win, and won’t be the GOP candidate for the presidency.

How is this possible? Well, the main reason is that Cain has never ever served in public office. Although this detail has strong appeal in the short run — Cain presents himself through lines like “I’m not a professional politician. I’m a professional problem solver;” but in the longer term, this is a serious problem, creating “a glass ceiling” above his head that he’s going to find very hard to break.

The Americans have never elected to the presidency a candidate who had not previously held public office, except for a few exceptions who occupied high-ranking command posts in the military. Herman Cain was the CEO of a pizza chain. It’s just not sufficient.

Beyond that, you can’t escape the impression that at some point, Cain himself will realize this, and therefore he will have difficulties taking his campaign seriously. Instead of working out Iowa and New Hampshire for the sake of advancing his candidacy in the states voting first — over the past few days, he’s been all over Tennessee promoting his new book. Quite a few people believe that Cain is running not in order to win the presidency, but rather a TV show on the Fox News Channel.

Stressing Obama

Mitt Romney: The former Massachusetts governor demonstrates that if you’re consistent enough in changing your opinions, you’ll eventually hit on what the voters want to hear. To his credit, it should be said that he has made tremendous progress in his television appearances, and from a politician who puts people to sleep he has turned into a sharp and fluent contender who had made almost zero mistakes in his campaign (so far).

The presidential candidature is not in his pocket yet, but in Obama’s election headquarters, they have already put a large X on his forehead. David Axelrod, chief strategist for the faltering president, recently commented on Romney’s performance so far in a conference call he held with political reporters, “All you need to succeed in show business is sincerity. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made.”

Vanished Just As He Popped Up

Rick Perry: The Texas governor barged into the race like a tornado, though currently it seems like he has disappeared into the horizon at a dizzying speed, before he fades away completely. A number of weak performances in the television debates, and significantly, an unfortunate statement concerning the legislation he passed — granting tuition discounts for illegal immigrants — has brought his campaign down, at least until further notice.

Perry still retains at his disposal the $15 million he managed to raise in a short time, with which he intends to target Romney through a series of aggressive TV advertisements.

These ads may yet undermine the former Massachusetts governor’s campaign, but as of the moment, Perry’s condition does not look good. It had better improve, and fast, — for otherwise, it’s going to cost me a lunch.

Maybe, There’s Still a Chance

Newt Gingrich: Somehow, in recent days, there has been a feeling creeping into my stomach that the former speaker of the House of Representatives, who opened the campaign in a catastrophic way, has yet to say his last word.

Should Cain go on wasting himself on the Tennessee hills and Perry keep falling asleep in front of the cameras in the TV debates, Gingrich — no one disputes his experience and his acute intelligence — is likely to return from the dead and win in Iowa. And should this happen, then, like they say in American sports, it’s a whole new ball game.

Cuban, Conservative, from Florida

Vice President: The list of possible competitors for the role is long, but the hottest name as of now is that of freshman senator Marco Rubio. He is young, handsome and eloquent, but more significantly — he is of Cuban origin, is conservative and comes from Florida.

It means, respectively, that he can rake in voices from the Hispanic community, which always votes for the Democratic candidate; guarantee a high voter turnout from the conservative tea party movement for a contender like Mitt Romney, perceived as relatively liberal; and “lock in” for the Republican presidential candidate the most important state on the electoral map.

Patience: In October, four years ago, the battle over the Republican nomination was conducted between two frontrunners — Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. From behind, there trailed one John McCain — it looked like his campaign was over even before getting started. In parallel, across the road, Hillary Clinton confidently sailed toward winning the Democratic nomination. The endgame of these two competitions is well known.

Barack Obama: Anyone with information on his whereabouts is asked to contact the nearest police station.