Trump on the Docket

Published in El Financiero
(Mexico) on 14 November 2019
by Jorge Berry (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nick Dauster. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
The first two witnesses appeared before the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence in the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump: William Taylor, acting ambassador to Ukraine, and George Kent, the highest-ranking official in the State Department with responsibility for Ukraine. Both had testified in closed sessions before the same committee; their testimony was recently released. Democrats are hoping support for removing Trump will grow as public hearings and the testimony of some of those involved make people aware of Trump's crimes and appeal to the public conscience.

Trump is being accused of extorting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. This is an issue not only for the U.S., but also for the entire geopolitical order; the national prestige of the United States as leader of liberal world democracies is in play. There was nothing positive for the White House in this first session.

The controversy is not too complicated. Trump is being accused of extorting President Zelenskiy, asking him to publicly announce a criminal investigation of Trump's principal political rival, Joe Biden, as part of Trump's 2020 reelection campaign.

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff of California, chairman of the Intelligence Committee, is tasked with investigating the charges. In reality, there is little doubt about the facts since Trump himself revealed - in a summary of the fateful telephone call - that he asked Zelenskiy to investigate the Bidens, father and son. That document, although not a literal transcription, is central to the allegations. A truly convoluted interpretation would be required to conclude that Trump is not guilty. Trump's allies are aiming for that in the hearings, but they cannot figure out how.

The first Republican strategy has been to discredit witnesses, which is very difficult. Taylor and Kent are career officials with more than 30 years of service, and have worked for both Democratic and Republican administrations. Both confirm the original claims of the anonymous whistleblower, whose identity remains secret, that there was an organized scheme directed by Rudy Giuliani, Trump's personal attorney. Following the instructions of his client, Giuliani operated an irregular channel of U.S. diplomatic relations, whose purpose it was to pressure the government of Ukraine and its young and inexperienced president to intervene illegally in the 2020 election and thus help the Trump campaign.

A diplomatic maneuver of that scope would not go unnoticed by career officials. For that reason, then-ambassador of the United States to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, began to resist. Giuliani spoke to Trump, and Ambassador Yovanovitch was removed from her post and additionally threatened in a frankly gangster-like fashion. She will testify in a public hearing on Friday.

There is not enough space to detail all the information that points to Trump's guilt, but, believe me, there is plenty, and it is irrefutable. But perhaps it will not be sufficient. Why?

The next step in the process will be to develop formal counts of impeachment and submit them to a vote of the full House. Each charge will be subject to a vote, and if one or more counts are approved, which is likely given the Democratic House majority, the impeachment charges will go to trial in the Senate, where Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts will preside, and Democrats and Republicans will present witnesses and arguments. In the end, the senators, who form the jury, will vote for or against removal. Two-thirds of the senators are required for removal of the president.

That is where the Republican obstacle seems insurmountable. Can you imagine the Mexican Senate voting to remove President Andrés Manuel López Obrador? I can't either.

That said, if public pressure grows during the hearings, electoral considerations might change the opinions of some senators. We will see. For now, in this column we will continue following the circus closely.


Los dos primeros testigos en el proceso de destitución contra el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, comparecieron ayer ante el Comité de Inteligencia de la Cámara de Representantes. William Taylor, el embajador de EU en funciones en Ucrania y George Kent, el funcionario de más alto rango en el Departamento de Estado responsable de Ucrania. Ambos habían ya declarado a puerta cerrada ante el mismo comité, y ambas declaraciones se dieron a conocer en días recientes. Los demócratas esperan que, con las audiencias públicas y los testimonios de algunos -que no todos- los involucrados, la percepción de los delitos cometidos por el presidente Trump penetren la conciencia ciudadana y crezca así el consenso para destituir a Trump.

El asunto es trascendente no solo para EU, sino para el orden geopolítico mismo, pues está en juego el prestigio nacional de Estados Unidos como líder de las democracias liberales en el mundo. Y esta primera sesión no resultó nada positiva para la Casa Blanca.

El tema no es tan complicado. Trump está acusado de extorsionar al presidente de Ucrania, Volodymyr Zelensky, para obligarlo a hacer pública una investigación criminal sobre su principal rival político Joe Biden, y usarla como herramienta electoral en los comicios presidenciales de 2020.

Adam Schiff, legislador demócrata de California, encabeza el comité encargado de investigar los cargos, pero en realidad, no hay muchas dudas sobre los hechos, puesto que el propio Trump reveló un resumen de la fatídica llamada telefónica en la que le pide a Zelensky que investigue a los Biden, padre e hijo. Este documento, que no es una transcripción literal, es el centro de la acusación, y hay que hacer una interpretación realmente torcida para no concluir que Trump es culpable. Es lo que intentan hacer los aliados de Trump en las audiencias, pero no hallan por dónde.

La primera estrategia republicana es desacreditar a los testigos. Será muy difícil, porque tanto Taylor como Kent son funcionarios de carrera, con más de 30 años de servicio, y que han trabajado bajo administraciones tanto demócratas como republicanas. Ambos confirman lo que originalmente expuso el informante anónimo, cuya identidad permanece secreta, que fue la existencia de todo un complot organizado por Rudy Giuliani, abogado personal de Trump, quien siguiendo las instrucciones de su cliente armó un aparato paralelo al servicio exterior estadounidense para presionar al gobierno de Ucrania, y a su joven y novato presidente, a intervenir ilegalmente en la elección de 2020 y así ayudar a la campaña de Trump.

Una maniobra diplomática de tal tamaño, no iba a pasar desapercibida por los funcionarios de carrera, y por ello la entonces embajadora de Estados Unidos en Ucrania, Marie Yovanovitch empezó a resistirse. Giuliani habló con Trump, y la embajadora fue relevada de su cargo, y además, amenazada, en una táctica francamente gangsteril. Ella declarará en audiencia pública el viernes.

No hay espacio suficiente para entrar en los detalles de todo lo que apunta a la culpabilidad de Trump, pero créame, son muchos e irrebatibles. Pero tal vez no serán suficientes. ¿Por qué?

El siguiente paso del proceso será elaborar cargos formales que se presentarán al Pleno de la cámara. Cada cargo estará sujeto a votación, y en caso de aprobarse uno o más, cosa probable por la mayoría demócrata en la Cámara baja, el tema irá al Senado, donde se realizará el juicio formal de Trump. Con el presidente de la Suprema Corte John Roberts como juez, demócratas y republicanos presentarán testigos y argumentos. Al final, los senadores, constituidos en jurado, votarán a favor o en contra de la destitución. Se requieren dos terceras parte de los senadores para destituir.

Es ahí donde parece infranqueable la barrera republicana. ¿Se imagina al senado mexicano votando para destituir a Andrés Manuel López Obrador? Yo tampoco.

Dicho lo anterior, si la presión ciudadana crece mucho ante las audiencias, las consideraciones electorales podrían hacer cambiar de opinión a algunos senadores. Ya veremos. Por lo pronto, en este espacio continuaremos siguiendo de cerca todo el circo.
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