Biden’s Diplomacy Resembles Carter’s

Published in Hankookilbo
(South Korea) on 21 January 2022
by Lee Tae-kyu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anukrati Mehta. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Jimmy Carter is a "bad current, great former" president. His entire political career involved serving as a governor while running a peanut farm in southern Georgia. At first, the political expectations for him were high, but his new status was revealed by his clumsiness in Washington politics and his inexperience in diplomacy. In American politics, it has almost become a trend to compare President Joe Biden to Carter. Pro-Trump Congressman Jim Jordan called Biden "the new Jimmy Carter," and Senator Lindsey Graham mocked him as "worse than Carter."

Biden has had a brilliant political career, but in many ways, he is reminiscent of Carter. The two assumed power under similar circumstances, with Watergate's political corruption and Trump's divisive politics being their legacy. In diplomacy, their practical noninterventionism, with human rights at the forefront, is also similar. Biden promised to restore human rights diplomacy and alliances in place of Trump's unilateralism and the “America First” approach. The problem is that what Biden, like Carter, showed during a series of crises is close to a specious approach. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the AUKUS alliance [a trilateral security pact among Australia, the U.K, and the USA] to contain China puzzled other allies, and the process of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan marked to the world the fall of the United States.

At a press conference on the first anniversary of his inauguration yesterday, Biden talked about the Ukraine crisis by distinguishing between a full-scale Russian invasion and a partial invasion. When controversy arose, he emphasized zero tolerance toward all attacks, but implicitly recognized Russia's right to partial possession. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was a disastrous failure of the Iranian hostage rescue operation and the Carter administration. The Ukraine crisis, too, will serve as a touchstone to determine whether Biden will follow in Carter's footsteps. Not only China, but also North Korea is accusing the Biden administration of adopting a “confrontational stance.”

Biden's one-year inauguration assessment is premature and crude, but the situation is not easy. Even though Carter failed to serve a second term as a result of economic recession and diplomatic failure, he enjoyed a 50% approval rating in his early days of power, but Biden's approval rating is below 40%. Unlike Carter, who maintained a Democratic majority in the midterm elections, Biden will likely hand over the Senate’s legislative power to the Republicans. It is also painfully obvious that inflation would have worsened without congressional brakes on Biden's $2 trillion-plus* American Rescue Plan. In light of all this, the road to Donald Trump's 2024 presidential election seems to be slowly opening up.

*Editor's Note: The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021was a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.


지미 카터는 ‘나쁜 현직, 훌륭한 전직’ 대통령이다. 남부 조지아에서 땅콩 농장을 하며 주지사를 지낸 게 정치 경력의 전부였다. 처음엔 새 정치 기대가 높았지만 그의 신선함은 워싱턴 정치에서 서투름과 외교에서 미숙함으로 나타났다. 조 바이든 대통령을 이런 카터에 비유하는 게 미국 정치권에서 유행이다. 친 트럼프인 짐 조던 하원의원은 바이든을 ‘새로운 카터’로 불렀고, 린지 그레이엄 상원의원은 ‘카터보다 더하다’고 야유했다.

□ 바이든은 정치경력이 화려하지만 많은 점에서 카터를 연상시킨다. 둘은 유사한 상황에서 정권을 인수했는데 워터게이트의 정치 타락, 트럼프의 분열정치가 그들의 유산이었다. 외교에서 인권을 앞세운 실용적 불간섭주의도 닮아 있다. 바이든은 트럼프의 일방주의, 미국 우선주의 대신에 인권외교와 동맹관계 회복을 약속했다. 문제는 위기의 연속이던 카터처럼 바이든도 보여준 게 그럴듯한 말에 가까운 점이다. 중국 견제를 위한 쿼드, 오커스 동맹은 다른 동맹들을 어리둥절케 했고, 아프가니스탄 철군 과정은 전 세계에 미국의 추락을 알렸다.

□ 바이든은 엊그제 취임 1주년 기자회견에선 우크라이나 사태에 대해 러시아의 전면 침입과 일부 침입을 구분해 말했다. 논란이 되자 모든 공격의 무 용납을 강조했으나 러시아의 일부 점유 인정을 은연중 내비친 셈이다. 1979년 소련의 아프간 침공은 이란 인질 구출 작전의 처참한 실패와 함께 카터 정부의 조종을 울린 사건이었다. 우크라이나 사태도 바이든이 카터의 전철을 따를지 시금석이 될 것이다. 중국은 물론 북한도 이런 바이든 정부를 ‘강 대 강’으로 몰아붙이고 있다.

□ 바이든 취임 1년 평가는 섣부르고 야박하긴 하나 상황이 호락호락하지 않다. 카터가 경제 불황과 외교 실패로 연임에 실패했어도 집권 초기 50% 지지율을 누렸으나 바이든은 지지율 40%를 밑돈다. 카터가 중간선거에서 민주당 다수를 유지한 것과 달리 바이든은 상원 의회권력을 공화당에 내줄 상황이다. 2조 달러가 넘는 바이든의 미국 재건안에 의회 제동이 없었다면 인플레는 더 악화했을 것이란 지적도 뼈아프다. 안팎에서 트럼프의 2024년 대선 길이 서서히 열리는 모습이다.
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