Is Trump in Trouble? Some Already Detect Signs of Defection in Rubio and Vance
Following America’s unsuccessful operations in Iran, top members of the U.S. government have apparently changed their positions. Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern said on a podcast episode that it is likely that Donald Trump is in trouble. Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, among others, might abandon him and distance themselves just like “rats fleeing a sinking ship.”
McGovern said that most rational people understand one point: America has already suffered setbacks in this war. It’s hard to say from the outside whether or not Trump’s right-hand men can inform the president about the actual situation or advance reasonable recommendations.
The question raised by this analyst is one that the entire world is curious about: Does Trump himself actually understand the state of the war?
After all, this is the president who has shared babbling nonsense in social media updates. He has also raised international suspicions that he is either a masterful actor or the White House is circling around his narratives of triumph, selectively presenting information favorable to the United States. This evidently makes his judgment “distorted,” and, regarding strategic decisions, to pass down unreasonable orders. So, step-by-step, America is sinking into this quagmire.
Apart from the war itself, the change in Trump’s right-hand men has garnered widespread attention, especially about Vance and Rubio. It is widely believed that one of these men might be the next president of the United States. However, their stances have followed opposite paths before the war and since the ceasefire.
Let’s examine Rubio first. For a long time, he was considered the accomplice to Trump’s remarks. Whenever the president would toss around threats, Rubio was the first to supply all the details and possibilities necessary to elevate the effect of his statements.
Before the air raid on Tehran, the secretary of state constantly briefed Trump, professing his all-out support for launching the strike. Vance, who had advised the president to proceed with caution, faded from the public eye during this time.
Some American media believe that when Trump has set his mind to take action, he sinks into a belligerently frenetic state and demands approval and words of affirmation. Consequently, he only listens to his greatest supporters and isn’t concerned about the war backfiring. Vance’s cool-headed suggestions are thereby not even considered.
According to some reports, the U.S. president held a meeting with Republican Party donors before the war. In that meeting, Rubio’s shouted demands overshadowed Vance. Per some media outlets, this reflects the core of Republican political capital, which tends entirely toward belligerence.
At the start of the war, Trump set up a provisional situation room in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, so that he and Rubio could follow the course of operations together. By contrast, Vance was 1,300 kilometers (about 808 miles) away in Washington.
Some media outlets surmise that this signals Vance has been relegated to the margins.
Although as a matter of convention, the U.S. president and vice president do not typically work together outside the White House — with the goal being to prevent the nation’s leaders from being wiped out by a single incident — the media’s doubts were by no means satisfied by arguments that the Iran war is unique and stringent security measures are in place.
However, as the war progressed, the strength of Iran’s counterattacks exceeded the entire world’s expectations and America has gradually lost control. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz set off an economic energy crisis, the calls for ceasefire among the populace have little by little reached the nation’s top command.
Internationally, the widespread view is that America already wants to give up. However, Trump doesn’t know how to make a graceful exit; after all, he has already sent out so many statements claiming victory. If America suddenly withdrew, it would make it look like the president’s reputation and impact have collapsed and lead to a total decline in approval ratings for himself and the Republican Party.
Even more importantly, an American president with a severely histrionic personality will never allow himself to be kicked off the world stage in a humiliating manner by Iran, which he had previously considered thoroughly unimportant.
One man who took a stand during this time was Vance, who had been almost forgotten by the public. About 10 days before the ceasefire agreement, he was the first to make his position clear. He stated that America would finish the war and leave Iran at a reasonable time, explicitly signaling that the highest authorities might pull back. Soon after, the vice president made a great effort to weaken the possibility of escalation and to maintain Trump’s reputation.
Now that the ceasefire agreement has been reached, media leaks reveal that it was Vance who dissuaded Trump at the 11th hour and thus prevented the situation from spiraling out of control. The vice president has now also assumed the role of leading the negotiation delegation.
The influence in Trump’s inner circle has changed, reversed from before the war.
According to European media analysis, this situation has arisen because America can no longer rely solely on Trump’s “social media governance;" the system’s safety net is exhausted. Solving this rotten mess requires people who can handle issues practically.
Although Vance is also a member of Trump’s limitless support crowd, he and Rubio have different styles. It’s as if the secretary of state is focused on playing the role of obedient attendant, while the vice president wants to be part of the deeper, decision-making level of the government.
U.S. media articles assert that the facts prove Vance is the one more useful to Trump. As Rubio frantically crowds around the president but obtains nothing valuable for his efforts, he may decide to start distancing himself from Trump.
Meanwhile, Vance, currently leading the delegation, has been sent by Trump on an extremely difficult job: negotiating victory over Iran. The subtle differences between the pre-war stances of these two men may be a direct cause of a rift in their relationship. This inference happens to coincide with McGovern’s analysis.
