US’ Diversification Strategy Influences the Oil Market

Published in People.com.cn
(China) on 28 February 2012
by Yang Yanchun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Peter Nix. Edited by Peter McGuire.
Presently, the USA’s main suppliers of imported oil are Canada (25 percent), Saudi Arabia (12 percent), Nigeria (11 percent), Venezuela (10 percent) and Mexico (nine percent). This effectively avoids the fluctuation in supply and price that might occur due to turmoil in the Middle East. Past events in the Middle East have influenced global supply and demand.

Influenced by Iran, Syria and other Middle Eastern countries, the NYMEX price of oil was already close to the high price of $110 per barrel on February 24, and the price of NYMEX light crude three-month futures contracts also set a nine-month high. International petroleum dealers forecast that the increasingly tense situation in the Middle East may push oil prices up to $150 per barrel. On February 23, the average price of gasoline in the US reached $3.59 per gallon, and industry insiders believe that the price might break five dollars this summer. As a country that consumes energy at a rate of 19.1 million barrels daily, U.S. energy prices and use deeply influence domestic and foreign policy and also have an extensive influence on the global oil market.

Ever since the oil exporting Arab countries implemented the oil embargo in 1973, America’s dependence on foreign oil has been an important political issue. The American Republican Party’s political position has been to support expanded domestic production of oil, natural gas and coal. The Democratic Party, represented by President Obama, advocates reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil by developing green energy sources such as bio-fuels, solar energy and wind power, meeting America’s energy needs and protecting the earth’s environment at the same time.

In a speech given on February 23 at Miami University, Obama changed the focus of his message, emphasizing that the American government should implement a more comprehensive energy policy and expand domestic production in order to reduce foreign dependence. Obama had already announced the opening of 75 percent of U.S. offshore oil and gas field extraction rights in his 2012 State of the Union address, thus adopting a multifaceted energy strategy.

Following the March 2010 announcement to open up more federal land and coastal waters for oil extraction, Obama announced that the U.S. government would open up regions in the Arctic ocean and Gulf of Mexico with total area of 15 million hectares for oil exploration and extraction. According to reports, after setting aside $41 billion for compensation to deal with the crude oil spill, British Petroleum has already been allowed to recommence oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico as well as oil well exploration in Alaska. Besides oil and natural gas, U.S. domestic shale gas extraction is a new factor emerging on the energy scene. Citibank recently released a report stating that North Dakota and Texas also have plentiful deposits; with expanded use of specialized fracturing technology, it is predicted that by 2035 the US’s daily production of shale gas could reach two or even three million barrels.

The energy policies expressed by Obama are, without spoken agreement, the same as those of the Republican Party. According to the Clean Energy Development Strategy announced in 2008, Obama says he will continue to develop clean energy and provide the necessary energy for three million families. In 2011, Obama announced the “Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future,” which aimed to double America’s output of wind, solar, geothermal and other renewable energy sources between 2008 and 2012. At present all projects are proceeding according to plan, with the goal that by 2035 80 percent of U.S. electricity generation will come from nuclear power, clean coal, natural gas and renewable energy sources.

Regarding this energy policy, experts believe that although Obama has no way of finding a shortcut to lower the price of oil, the energy diversification strategy he has proposed is already being comprehensively carried out. Presently, the US has already become the world’s fastest growing producer of oil, and will become a net exporter of refined oil products for the first time in 60 years. Offsetting imports with exports, America’s net daily oil imports have decreased from over 13 million barrels in 2007 to eight million barrels in 2011. As of 2011, American’s oil production is already equivalent to 55 percent of its total demand, the highest level in 8 years. At present, the USA’s main suppliers of imported oil are Canada (25 percent), Saudi Arabia (12 percent), Nigeria (11 percent), Venezuela (10 percent) and Mexico (nine percent). This effectively avoids variations in supply and price that might stem from turmoil in the Middle East. Such turmoil has influenced global supply and demand in the past. Various signs suggest the current situation regarding global production, supply and consumption of oil may see significant changes in the mid- to long-term.


目前,美国的主要石油进口国分别为加拿大(25%)、沙特(12%)、尼日利亚(11%)、委内瑞拉(10%)和墨西哥(9%),这样的格局有效地规避了由于中东局势动荡可能导致的供给与价格震动,甚至对以往的全球石油供应格局产生了影响。

  受伊朗和叙利亚等中东局势影响,纽约油价2月24日已经接近110美元/桶的高点,纽约商品交易所3月份的轻质原油期货价格也创下近9个月来的新高。国际石油交易商预测,中东紧张局势加剧可能将油价推高至每桶150美元。2月23日,美国汽油零售均价已达每加仑3.59美元,业内人士认为,这一价格可能于夏季突破5美元。作为日消费1910万桶石油的能源消费大国,美国能源价格和结构变化不仅深刻影响着美国的内政外交,也对世界石油市场格局有着长远的影响。

  1973年,阿拉伯石油输出国实施石油禁运后,美国石油的对外依赖程度一直是一个重要政治问题。美共和党在能源上的政治主张是支持加大国内石油、天然气和煤炭开采,而现任总统奥巴马所代表的民主党则提倡以发展包括生物燃料、太阳能、风能等替代绿色能源来降低美国对国外石油的依赖,同时保护地球环境。

  当地时间2月23日,奥巴马在佛罗里达州迈阿密大学发表演讲时的基调有所改变,强调美国政府将实施更为全面的能源政策,加大国内石油开采以降低对外依赖程度。在2012年的美国国情咨文中,奥巴马就已宣布开放75%的美国离岸石油和油气田的开采权,采取多种形式并举的能源战略。

  继2010年3月宣布开放更多联邦政府土地和沿海地区油井的开采后,奥巴马在该次演讲中表示,美国政府将开放北冰洋和墨西哥湾地区总面积达1500万公顷的油气勘探和开采。据悉,英国石油公司在拨备总赔付款410亿美元用于处理原油泄漏事故后,已获准恢复在墨西哥湾的石油开采和阿拉斯加的油井勘探。除石油天然气外,美国本土页岩油的开采也异军突起。花旗银行近日发布报告称,北达科他州和得克萨斯州储量丰富,随着开采专门破碎技术的广泛应用,预计2035年美国页岩油日产量可望达到200万桶至300万桶。

  奥巴马此次宣布的能源政策与共和党观点不约而同。秉承2008年宣布的清洁能源发展战略,奥巴马表示仍将继续发展清洁能源,并为300万户美国家庭提供所需能源。2011年奥巴马发布了“更为安全的未来能源蓝图目标”,即在2008年至2012年间把美国风能、太阳能、地热等可再生能源产量提高一倍,目前所有项目正依计划展开,力争在2035年达到美国发电总量的80%来自核能、清洁煤炭、天然气等可再生能源的目标。

  针对这项能源政策,分析人士认为,虽然奥巴马无法找到快速降低油价的捷径,但他提出的美国能源多元化战略已经全面展开。目前,美国已成为全球石油产量增长最快的国家,并在60年以来首次成为炼油产品的净出口国,进出口相抵,美国石油每日净进口总额也从2007年的1300多万桶下降到了2011年底的800万桶。截至2011年,美国石油自产量已占需求总量的55%,达到8年来的最高水平。目前,美国的主要石油进口来源国分别为加拿大(25%)、沙特(12%)、尼日利亚(11%)、委内瑞拉(10%)和墨西哥(9%),这样的格局有效地规避了由于中东局势动荡可能导致的供给与价格震动,甚至对全球石油供应格局产生了影响。种种迹象表明,世界石油生产、供应和消费的现有市场格局在中长期内有可能发生变化。
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