Putin’s Biggest Mistake — Will Trump Force Him to the Negotiating Table?*
Donald Trump was ready to make far-reaching concessions on Ukraine. But that's in the past. The U.S. president has clearly lost patience with the Kremlin and intends to force Putin — not through leniency but through pressure — into peace talks.
In a telephone conversation with Donald Trump on July 3, the Russian dictator announced that he would continue the summer offensive for at least another two months — for the purpose of seizing what remains of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Listening to him, one could conclude that Vladimir Putin, a bit like Adolf Hitler in the Wolf's Lair during Operation Barbarossa, has completely lost touch with reality. The Russian military is much weaker than the Kremlin would like it to be. Four years after the invasion, at the expense of as many as 1.5 million wounded and 400,000 killed, it is moving at a snail's pace. There is no way it could suddenly break through the Ukrainian front, let alone cross the Dnipro River.
America To Start Sending Sophisticated Weapons to Ukraine. What Kind and at Whose Expense?
But apparently, Putin is also unable to see what is happening in the White House. Well-informed sources in Washington tell Rzeczpospolita that in his first months in office, Trump was ready to make far-reaching concessions to Moscow with the aim of achieving quick political success. Concessions even included the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Poland and the rest of NATO's eastern flank, as well as U.S. recognition of Russia's territorial gains made so far, plus blocking Ukraine’s path to NATO.
Now, however, the possibility of an agreement between Russia and America has become very limited. The July 3 conversation turned out to be the last straw. The U.S. president has clearly lost patience with the Kremlin and intends to force Putin — not through leniency but through pressure — into peace talks.
How would that happen? America wants to drag Russia into a new arms race. The White House says it will send “very sophisticated” military equipment to Ukraine at the expense of its European NATO allies, possibly including long-range missiles even capable of reaching Moscow. This would have great symbolic importance and could prove to be a serious step toward ending the Putin regime. Since the beginning of the war, the Russian dictator has generally managed to protect the capital’s elite from the consequences of the conflict. But this could end.
If Putin enters into negotiations now, he will no longer do so from a position of strength.
But an equally effective tool against the Russian regime may be the partial enactment of the bill that Lindsey Graham submitted to the U.S. Senate. It proposes secondary sanctions: 500% tariffs imposed on imports from countries that, like India or Brazil, buy Russian oil and other raw materials. Putin has so far managed to maintain economic stability, in great part due to the support of China and the countries of the Global South. He can't be certain of that anymore.
NATO Launches Double Race against Time
If the Kremlin finally decides to engage in peace talks today, it will no longer do so from a position of strength. Rather, it will be as the regime that inflicted the most casualties on Russians since World War II, pushed the country into isolation and could not defeat an impoverished country like Ukraine. It would probably begin a new chapter in its history. Years ago, Zbigniew Brzezinski emphasized that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire. What will it become then? At the moment, it has no alternative vision for its future.
*Editor’s note: The full text of this article is available in its original language through a paid subscription.
In a telephone conversation with Donald Trump on July 3, the Russian dictator announced that he would continue the summer offensive for at least another two months — for the purpose of seizing what remains of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Listening to him, one could conclude that Vladimir Putin, a bit like Adolf Hitler in the Wolf's Lair during Operation Barbarossa, has completely lost touch with reality. The Russian military is much weaker than the Kremlin would like it to be. Four years after the invasion, at the expense of as many as 1.5 million wounded and 400,000 killed, it is moving at a snail's pace. There is no way it could suddenly break through the Ukrainian front, let alone cross the Dnipro River.
America To Start Sending Sophisticated Weapons to Ukraine. What Kind and at Whose Expense?
But apparently, Putin is also unable to see what is happening in the White House. Well-informed sources in Washington tell Rzeczpospolita that in his first months in office, Trump was ready to make far-reaching concessions to Moscow with the aim of achieving quick political success. Concessions even included the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Poland and the rest of NATO's eastern flank, as well as U.S. recognition of Russia's territorial gains made so far, plus blocking Ukraine’s path to NATO.
Now, however, the possibility of an agreement between Russia and America has become very limited. The July 3 conversation turned out to be the last straw. The U.S. president has clearly lost patience with the Kremlin and intends to force Putin — not through leniency but through pressure — into peace talks.
How would that happen? America wants to drag Russia into a new arms race. The White House says it will send “very sophisticated” military equipment to Ukraine at the expense of its European NATO allies, possibly including long-range missiles even capable of reaching Moscow. This would have great symbolic importance and could prove to be a serious step toward ending the Putin regime. Since the beginning of the war, the Russian dictator has generally managed to protect the capital’s elite from the consequences of the conflict. But this could end.
If Putin enters into negotiations now, he will no longer do so from a position of strength.
But an equally effective tool against the Russian regime may be the partial enactment of the bill that Lindsey Graham submitted to the U.S. Senate. It proposes secondary sanctions: 500% tariffs imposed on imports from countries that, like India or Brazil, buy Russian oil and other raw materials. Putin has so far managed to maintain economic stability, in great part due to the support of China and the countries of the Global South. He can't be certain of that anymore.
NATO Launches Double Race against Time
If the Kremlin finally decides to engage in peace talks today, it will no longer do so from a position of strength. Rather, it will be as the regime that inflicted the most casualties on Russians since World War II, pushed the country into isolation and could not defeat an impoverished country like Ukraine. It would probably begin a new chapter in its history. Years ago, Zbigniew Brzezinski emphasized that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire. What will it become then? At the moment, it has no alternative vision for its future.
*Editor’s note: The full text of this article is available in its original language through a paid subscription.
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