Trump Defeated by Iran
The agreement the U.S. negotiated largely favors Tehran, though it remains fragile.
After four months of war, bombs, threats, promised ceasefires, and even the threatened annihilation of Iran, President Donald Trump has finally achieved a remarkable feat. He has handed Iran a victory, at the same time managing to alienate a portion of his Republican base.
Since the announcement of the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States, Trump’s Republican base has been up in arms – and not without reason. Numerous analysts say the agreement skews heavily in favor of the mullah regime. This is clearly evident in how Tehran has secured a ceasefire of military aggression on its allies, including with Lebanon, though Israel, it seems, hasn’t gotten the memo.
The U.S. will lift its naval blockade. Iran will be able to resume oil sales for 60 days until talks resume for a final and definitive agreement. Iran will even be allowed to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. sanctions will fall like a house of cards. What’s more, there are rumors that the U.S. will put a $300 billion reconstruction program in place for Iran, funded by the United States and its partners in the Persian Gulf region.
The agreement remains silent on Iran’s support for terrorist groups in the region and continuing the country’s ballistic missile program, which has earned Israel’s wrath – for good reason. It will allow Iran to replenish its treasury and carry on its policy of influence in the Gulf States.
As for the nuclear side of things, we’ll see. The agreement envisions future discussions on the matter in hope of reaching a final agreement. For now, Iran pledges not to relaunch its nuclear program, and not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons.
The bottom line? The U.S. president has “secured, above all, a temporary solution to a problem created by the war: the opening of the strait of Hormuz,” according to the journal Le Grand Continent, which concludes that Iran holds the advantage in the provisional peace treaty.
Trump has quite simply resolved a domestic issue; a mix of public outrage, rising gas prices, and the resurgence of inflation. These are calamities of his own making; the result of his fantasy to overthrow the Iranian regime, coming at the cost of a blitzkrieg conducted on Iran. The two allies have decapitated the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime, but they have not defeated theocracy. Khameni’s son, younger and more radical, is now steering the country that presents itself both as the victim of Israeli-American aggression and as a victor.
The madness of this war is all the more evident now that it has achieved none of its initial objectives. That said, the Trump administration, as strange as it may seem, has made the only sensible decision with this pitiful agreement. Iran demonstrated that it only needed a handful of drones and mines to paralyze roughly 20% of the global oil supply – at the expense of the West’s economic stability. The United States has realized that the Revolutionary Guards, whose ferocity it underestimated, have a firm grip on civil society.
Iran has the key to the Strait of Hormuz. Absent a terrifying escalation that would have required sending troops onto Iranian soil – and the ensuing destruction of the country’s oil and gas infrastructure – the United States could not have improved its position by a hair’s breadth. The American people, and perhaps even Congress, would certainly not have backed another large-scale military campaign following the debacles in Afghanistan and Iraq. And especially not one led by a president who proclaims himself the apostle of U.S. military disengagement and isolationism.
The agreement is nonetheless flawed. It is no more promising than the deal once struck by President Barack Obama; an agreement that Trump rescinded during his first term. Iran’s commitments on the nuclear issue remain only theoretical. And it is simply unrealistic to think that a 60-day delay will suffice to find a lasting solution.
By extending this ceasefire to Lebanon, the U.S. is also attempting to contain an offensive led by its Israeli ally, locked into a strategy of escalation. But the plan isn’t going down well with Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which remains set on occupying southern Lebanon despite the latest ceasefire with Hezbollah. This conflict of interest even forced Vice President JD Vance to defer his trip to Geneva, further delaying negotiations.
There is little cause for celebration. And it is worth wondering whether the terms of the agreement will stand the test of the next two months. Far from victory, Trump is faced with a painful setback, which voters will remember during the November midterm elections.
After four months of war, bombs, threats, promised ceasefires, and even the threatened annihilation of Iran, President Donald Trump has finally achieved a remarkable feat. He has handed Iran a victory, at the same time managing to alienate a portion of his Republican base.
Since the announcement of the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States, Trump’s Republican base has been up in arms – and not without reason. Numerous analysts say the agreement skews heavily in favor of the mullah regime. This is clearly evident in how Tehran has secured a ceasefire of military aggression on its allies, including with Lebanon, though Israel, it seems, hasn’t gotten the memo.
The U.S. will lift its naval blockade. Iran will be able to resume oil sales for 60 days until talks resume for a final and definitive agreement. Iran will even be allowed to charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. sanctions will fall like a house of cards. What’s more, there are rumors that the U.S. will put a $300 billion reconstruction program in place for Iran, funded by the United States and its partners in the Persian Gulf region.
The agreement remains silent on Iran’s support for terrorist groups in the region and continuing the country’s ballistic missile program, which has earned Israel’s wrath – for good reason. It will allow Iran to replenish its treasury and carry on its policy of influence in the Gulf States.
As for the nuclear side of things, we’ll see. The agreement envisions future discussions on the matter in hope of reaching a final agreement. For now, Iran pledges not to relaunch its nuclear program, and not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons.
The bottom line? The U.S. president has “secured, above all, a temporary solution to a problem created by the war: the opening of the strait of Hormuz,” according to the journal Le Grand Continent, which concludes that Iran holds the advantage in the provisional peace treaty.
Trump has quite simply resolved a domestic issue; a mix of public outrage, rising gas prices, and the resurgence of inflation. These are calamities of his own making; the result of his fantasy to overthrow the Iranian regime, coming at the cost of a blitzkrieg conducted on Iran. The two allies have decapitated the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime, but they have not defeated theocracy. Khameni’s son, younger and more radical, is now steering the country that presents itself both as the victim of Israeli-American aggression and as a victor.
The madness of this war is all the more evident now that it has achieved none of its initial objectives. That said, the Trump administration, as strange as it may seem, has made the only sensible decision with this pitiful agreement. Iran demonstrated that it only needed a handful of drones and mines to paralyze roughly 20% of the global oil supply – at the expense of the West’s economic stability. The United States has realized that the Revolutionary Guards, whose ferocity it underestimated, have a firm grip on civil society.
Iran has the key to the Strait of Hormuz. Absent a terrifying escalation that would have required sending troops onto Iranian soil – and the ensuing destruction of the country’s oil and gas infrastructure – the United States could not have improved its position by a hair’s breadth. The American people, and perhaps even Congress, would certainly not have backed another large-scale military campaign following the debacles in Afghanistan and Iraq. And especially not one led by a president who proclaims himself the apostle of U.S. military disengagement and isolationism.
The agreement is nonetheless flawed. It is no more promising than the deal once struck by President Barack Obama; an agreement that Trump rescinded during his first term. Iran’s commitments on the nuclear issue remain only theoretical. And it is simply unrealistic to think that a 60-day delay will suffice to find a lasting solution.
By extending this ceasefire to Lebanon, the U.S. is also attempting to contain an offensive led by its Israeli ally, locked into a strategy of escalation. But the plan isn’t going down well with Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which remains set on occupying southern Lebanon despite the latest ceasefire with Hezbollah. This conflict of interest even forced Vice President JD Vance to defer his trip to Geneva, further delaying negotiations.
There is little cause for celebration. And it is worth wondering whether the terms of the agreement will stand the test of the next two months. Far from victory, Trump is faced with a painful setback, which voters will remember during the November midterm elections.
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