Bases in Arab Capitals and Not from Aircraft Carriers, Warships or Even Israel? What Are the Dangers to These Governments and What to Expect from Trump’s Imminent Offensive Threat?

For the second consecutive day, U.S. President Donald Trump vowed late Thursday to “bomb Iran severely” (in a matter of hours) and seize control of Iran’s massive oil industry on Kharg Island, its most important base and oil fields — repeating the scenario of the attack on Venezuela by placing his hand on the oil sector.

These threats mean the collapse of the ceasefire agreement and the end of the truce, a return to square 1 and the resumption of the Israeli-American aggression that began roughly 100 days ago. Most important, they signal the end of the phenomenon of “mutual deception” which is the most prominent aspect of the negotiations — along with the Pakistani mediators and their leader, Gen. Asim Munir, the army chief, who is considered America’s man in Asia, not just Pakistan.

The first American strike, which erupted yesterday morning, targeted Iranian military bases, communication systems and air defense sites. Iran’s response came swiftly with strikes on American military bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Jordan took 20 missiles, Kuwait 24 drones, and Bahrain saw the destruction of large bomber aircraft.

The new Iranian leadership has vowed to plunge America into a broad, long-term regional war of attrition on multiple fronts, impose a tight closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a security belt extending from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb and from the Gulf to the Red Sea. It is now implementing these threats to the letter.

What Trump — whom all agree is characterized by stupidity, ignorance of political and military affairs, and experience limited to real estate brokerage, in which he has also failed, having declared bankruptcy more than 12 times — has failed to understand is that he has fallen into a very deep hole and is still digging. All his threats, whether military or rhetorical — to wipe Iran off the map, open the gates of hell and destroy all its naval, ground and air weapons — have so far failed to achieve the main objective of this aggression: Iran’s surrender and full submission to American-Israeli conditions.

There is no doubt that Iran, facing aggression from two states — the world’s greatest power, the United States, and the strongest regionally, Israel — has suffered significant losses. However, the losses to the United States and Israel are far greater. The most prominent among them is the failure to destroy or change the Iranian regime, to uproot Iran’s nuclear ambitions from their roots, along with its highly advanced missile arsenal, and to seize 460 kilograms (about 1,014 pounds) of highly enriched uranium.

As for the losses among America’s Arab allies — who, unfortunately, form the overwhelming majority — they are enormous and likely to multiply several times over, as most indicators confirm that the war will be prolonged. The American bases on their soil have become a curse and a massive strategic danger, a source of dual threats to their security, stability and very existence. Most of these American bases failed first to protect themselves and second to protect the host countries.

In the latest round of strikes, Iranian missiles and drones targeted three Arab countries — Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain — for a simple and documented reason: The senior U.S. military command launched its aggressive missiles against Iran from bases in these countries. Iranian intelligence leaks confirm that these three countries, in addition to others that “behaved” and did not allow America to use their bases, may face intelligence, military and political strikes deep within their geographic and social fabric in the next phase. We must take into account that more than 75% of the peoples of these countries and residents there stand in the Iranian trench facing America and Israel.

The question that forcefully presents itself is: Why does America launch its aggressive missiles against Iran from bases in Arab countries, subject to military and financial blackmail (loans and aid), and not from its three aircraft carriers and more than 20 warships carrying more than 300 fighter jets, dozens of missile platforms, and more than 50,000 troops on board?

The answer is simple: to entangle the host countries of these bases in a war with Iran that could last for decades under various pretexts, most prominently sectarian and ethnic, making them permanent prisoners of American — and perhaps also Israeli — protection.

Iran will absorb the second strike just as it absorbed the first. Bombs and missiles will not pull Trump out of this quagmire, nor will they achieve the goal of subjugating Iran and forcing its surrender, as Mohsen Rezaei, adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, stated. In addition, Trump’s America will not occupy Kharg Island, Iran’s oil capital. Even if it does, holding and maintaining such an occupation would come at exorbitant costs. This is Iran, not Venezuela.

The West Asia region (I prefer this term over the colonial “Middle East”) is currently passing through a phase similar to the 1948 war, but the results will be different. Iran is well-prepared for all possibilities, relying entirely on domestically manufactured weapons. It possesses missiles, drones, strong will, formidable minds, enormous deterrent capabilities and — most important of all — strong leadership and a people rallied around it. It may be useful to recall for the thousandth time that America is not immune to defeats. We defeated and expelled it in Afghanistan and Iraq, and very soon in Iran. Time will tell.