America’s Power Can Be Worth Little*
Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 15 June 2026
by Nikolas Busse (link to
original)
Trump’s agreement with Iran appears to be provisional. So far, he has only solved the one problem that he himself had created.
If the United States and Iran could actually end their war, then it would be good news for once, for the region and for the rest of the world. The people in Iran, in the Gulf region, in Israel and in Lebanon should not continue to pay the price for a war that was rashly started and in which, to date, practically no meaningful war aim has been achieved. The global economy should also be liberated as soon as possible from the geopolitical captivity that it has fallen into in the Strait of Hormuz.
Unfortunately, it is unknown whether and to what extent that will happen. The details of the agreement that Washington and Tehran were able to reach appear to be provisional; central issues are still to be negotiated. If the fighting in Lebanon continues, the whole thing also could fall apart there. And Donald Trump’s inconsistency is a well-known potential source of disruption to agreements of any kind.
In essence, Trump has presently solved only one problem that he himself created: The Strait of Hormuz is to be opened again, although possibly with tolls in the future. On the nuclear program, in contrast, both sides are returning to negotiations. It is unlikely that an accord can be reached that would be substantively more wide-reaching than Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement, which Trump is constantly lambasting.
Everything else is off the table. There will be no regime change in Tehran. What will happen with the Iranian missile program remains to be seen. The country is keeping its proxy armies. It is not a new Middle East; instead, it looks more like a new chapter in the familiar Middle East.
Trump thought that he could win this war effortlessly, and there was apparently no one in Washington who wanted to or could talk him out of it. In the end, it just demonstrates again that America’s military power can be worth shockingly little. And the president has also shaken two alliance systems on which the global power previously could always rely: its alliances in the Gulf region and NATO.
*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
If the United States and Iran could actually end their war, then it would be good news for once, for the region and for the rest of the world. The people in Iran, in the Gulf region, in Israel and in Lebanon should not continue to pay the price for a war that was rashly started and in which, to date, practically no meaningful war aim has been achieved. The global economy should also be liberated as soon as possible from the geopolitical captivity that it has fallen into in the Strait of Hormuz.
Unfortunately, it is unknown whether and to what extent that will happen. The details of the agreement that Washington and Tehran were able to reach appear to be provisional; central issues are still to be negotiated. If the fighting in Lebanon continues, the whole thing also could fall apart there. And Donald Trump’s inconsistency is a well-known potential source of disruption to agreements of any kind.
In essence, Trump has presently solved only one problem that he himself created: The Strait of Hormuz is to be opened again, although possibly with tolls in the future. On the nuclear program, in contrast, both sides are returning to negotiations. It is unlikely that an accord can be reached that would be substantively more wide-reaching than Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement, which Trump is constantly lambasting.
Everything else is off the table. There will be no regime change in Tehran. What will happen with the Iranian missile program remains to be seen. The country is keeping its proxy armies. It is not a new Middle East; instead, it looks more like a new chapter in the familiar Middle East.
Trump thought that he could win this war effortlessly, and there was apparently no one in Washington who wanted to or could talk him out of it. In the end, it just demonstrates again that America’s military power can be worth shockingly little. And the president has also shaken two alliance systems on which the global power previously could always rely: its alliances in the Gulf region and NATO.
*Editor’s note: This article is available in its original language with a paid subscription.
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