Six Months of Failure in Iran
Unable to achieve a military victory or negotiate an honorable exit, Trump is bogged down in an uncertain economic war.
Operation Epic Fury, launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28 was going to last four or five weeks, according to the White House. Six months on, Washington is mired in a war of resistance that is both Donald Trump’s greatest political liability and a source of instability that extends beyond the Middle East. The Iranian regime shows no sign of weakness. They have slaughtered the opposition inside the country and bombed half a dozen neighboring countries. They have also become aware of a power they never used before: cutting off the movement of oil on a whim. This is something that has impacted every economy in some way or another. In the U.S. the war has rekindled inflation, intensified pressure on the national debt and cooled prospects of growth in the middle of a political campaign.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most eloquent symbol of U.S. failure. Nearly a fifth of global trade in oil travels along this route, and now few ships dare navigate it. This August alone the price of oil has gone up by 20%. In developed countries, reserves of crude and derivatives are at a minimum. Prices fluctuate in time with Trump’s Tweets, depending on the hope of talks with Iran.
Meanwhile the cost of the conflict does not stop rising. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told Congress that the cost of the war is $37.5 billion. The Center for Strategic and International Studies believes that the real figure is nearer $100 billion. This expense has put the finishing touch to U.S. national debt which has doubled in scarcely 10 years. This week it passed the $40 trillion mark. What is more, the conflict has depleted the arms reserves of the world’s most powerful nation and has made a hole in the U.S. security strategy in Asia. They have been forced to send aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Persian Gulf to relieve USS Abraham Lincoln. The crew had spent months on deployment and were away so long that their families had protested.
Faced with the strategic failure of the military campaign and a diplomatic impasse, the U.S. president has now promised to isolate the Islamic regime, using economic warfare. This is a recognition of its inability to break Tehran by military means and its inability to use diplomacy to reach an agreement acceptable to U.S. citizens. Iran is an economy accustomed to sanctions. It has established channels of trade and finance to sidestep parts of the embargos. The regime also places few limitations on the harm it is prepared to inflict on its citizens. A real economic war needs global support, principally from the United Arab Emirates, financial life jacket of the regime, and from China, which buys 90% of Tehran’s oil exports. The Emirates suspended trade with Iran this week. Xi Jinping is visiting Washington next month.
The lack of results from the war has sunk Trump’s credibility, even among his own people. The unpopularity of a conflict that does not even have support from Congress and the high cost of gas are upsetting an electorate that voted for him as a protest against the high cost of living. But a chaotic retreat, or peace without tangible gains would be even worse. U.S. citizens do not like presidents who appear weak. So, after six months of colossal strategic failure, the conflict is entering a new phase in which Washington and Tehran are equally certain to inflict more harm on each other. There is nothing to suggest that this so-called economic war can break the closed Iranian theocracy any more than the bombs or the assassination of the supreme leader did. Iran is not in any hurry. Trump, on the other hand, is 10 weeks away from elections, and the price of gas does not stop rising.
Operation Epic Fury, launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28 was going to last four or five weeks, according to the White House. Six months on, Washington is mired in a war of resistance that is both Donald Trump’s greatest political liability and a source of instability that extends beyond the Middle East. The Iranian regime shows no sign of weakness. They have slaughtered the opposition inside the country and bombed half a dozen neighboring countries. They have also become aware of a power they never used before: cutting off the movement of oil on a whim. This is something that has impacted every economy in some way or another. In the U.S. the war has rekindled inflation, intensified pressure on the national debt and cooled prospects of growth in the middle of a political campaign.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most eloquent symbol of U.S. failure. Nearly a fifth of global trade in oil travels along this route, and now few ships dare navigate it. This August alone the price of oil has gone up by 20%. In developed countries, reserves of crude and derivatives are at a minimum. Prices fluctuate in time with Trump’s Tweets, depending on the hope of talks with Iran.
Meanwhile the cost of the conflict does not stop rising. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told Congress that the cost of the war is $37.5 billion. The Center for Strategic and International Studies believes that the real figure is nearer $100 billion. This expense has put the finishing touch to U.S. national debt which has doubled in scarcely 10 years. This week it passed the $40 trillion mark. What is more, the conflict has depleted the arms reserves of the world’s most powerful nation and has made a hole in the U.S. security strategy in Asia. They have been forced to send aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Persian Gulf to relieve USS Abraham Lincoln. The crew had spent months on deployment and were away so long that their families had protested.
Faced with the strategic failure of the military campaign and a diplomatic impasse, the U.S. president has now promised to isolate the Islamic regime, using economic warfare. This is a recognition of its inability to break Tehran by military means and its inability to use diplomacy to reach an agreement acceptable to U.S. citizens. Iran is an economy accustomed to sanctions. It has established channels of trade and finance to sidestep parts of the embargos. The regime also places few limitations on the harm it is prepared to inflict on its citizens. A real economic war needs global support, principally from the United Arab Emirates, financial life jacket of the regime, and from China, which buys 90% of Tehran’s oil exports. The Emirates suspended trade with Iran this week. Xi Jinping is visiting Washington next month.
The lack of results from the war has sunk Trump’s credibility, even among his own people. The unpopularity of a conflict that does not even have support from Congress and the high cost of gas are upsetting an electorate that voted for him as a protest against the high cost of living. But a chaotic retreat, or peace without tangible gains would be even worse. U.S. citizens do not like presidents who appear weak. So, after six months of colossal strategic failure, the conflict is entering a new phase in which Washington and Tehran are equally certain to inflict more harm on each other. There is nothing to suggest that this so-called economic war can break the closed Iranian theocracy any more than the bombs or the assassination of the supreme leader did. Iran is not in any hurry. Trump, on the other hand, is 10 weeks away from elections, and the price of gas does not stop rising.
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