2009: Pacification in Iraq?

The economist Khair El-din Haseeb, former chief of the Iraq Central Bank, now heads the Center for Arab Unity in Beirut. Neues Deutschland asked him about his expectations for the new year.

Neues Detuschland (ND): Do you believe U.S. policy toward Iraq will change under Barack Obama?

Khair El-din Haseeb (KH): There are internal reasons that force America to withdraw its occupation forces. The new President himself has said he wants to withdraw them within 16 months. Over and above that, if the United States wants to call itself a democracy it cannot ignore the results of various surveys. The overwhelming majority of Iraqis want the Americans to leave Iraq. Even a majority of Americans thinks their forces should leave.

ND: Which is the bigger problem for the United States, the situation in Iraq or rhe Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

KH: Iraq has priority. Solving the Palestinian problem will take a great deal of time and the Obama administration is not in a position to suggest an equitable solution. If U.S. troops withdraw from Iraq, if elections result in a new government there, the balance of power in the region will change, and that will help in finding a solution to the Palestinian question. Not immediately, but in the long term. It will assist in creating new Arab regimes that will develop different national and patriotic policies. They will play their trump cards – oil and money. In that way, they will have considerable influence on the United States and the West in general.

ND: Western media and the United States government claim the security situation in Iraq has improved. Is that accurate?

KH: Yes, the situation there has settled down but not due to the troop surge as the Americans claim. There are 21 zones in Baghdad that are separated from one another by walls. Residents can go between them only via specific gates, so there’s less violence now but that has nothing to do with freedom of movement. The ceasefire with Muktada Sadr’s group has also resulted in fewer deaths. The Americans have simply bought off other factions and the weapons used by insurgents are getting old and no longer work properly. All these factors have contributed to less violence. But the number of deaths from attacks is still very high.

ND: Who is responsible for the recent attacks on Christians in Mosul?

KH: The attacks were mainly carried out by the Kurdish Peshmerga. Whether directed to do so by their own leadership or by outsiders, I have no idea. But because of international reaction to these attacks, the Baghdad government was obliged to send an army division to Mosul. The Peshmerga were forced to withdraw from predominantly Christian neighborhoods because of that.

ND: Baghdad is making every effort to bring refugees back into Iraq. $195 million has been made available to aid in their return.

KH: People can’t stay indefinitely in Syria or Jordan because their savings are running out. They have to return to Iraq regardless of the situation there. It’s the Iraqi government’s duty to help them. The bottom line is that Iraqi government policies were responsible for the people being threatened and driven out. Neither the United Nations nor Syria nor Jordan are responsible for that, no, the Iraqi government is responsible. And it has taken in a lot of money thanks to high oil prices during the past year. But I’m not certain they really want all the refugees back because they will probably show the government exactly what they think of it at the next election.