The Size Matters

We all learn from experience. The most current events influence our analysis more than those that have already faded away in our memories. The strategy designed by General McChrystal for Afghanistan, which was only partially assumed by President Obama, was used by General Petraeus in Iraq, having had the full support of ex-President Bush. Those involved in the Mushtarak operation, designed to clear out Taliban forces from the troubled city of Helmand, remember the taking of the city of Fallujah in the still conflict-ridden Iraqi province of Anbar, and not only due to the coincidence that some units were involved in both campaigns.

North Americans and Iraqis conquered the Islamic stronghold of Fallujah, expelling the rebels, and when they left to take on new missions, the Islamic forces returned to retake the city. General Petraeus adroitly convinced Bush that only by increasing the contingent by a considerable amount, up to 150,000 men, would it be possible to consolidate control of the territory. The city of Fallujah was then re-captured. It was maintained by an on-guard security group and old stronghold radicals who converted and became a bastion of the (awakening) Sunni.

The Mushtarak operation has had complete coverage from before it began until the last of the Taliban came to expect what was about to happen. Clashing forces are cleaning the territory, but it is highly likely that most of the insurgents have retired to secure positions knowing that the Americans do not have enough troops to permanently occupy the territory. And so, once the troops have withdrawal, the Islamic rebels will take control over the providence once again. Afghanistan is a theater more complicated than Iraq and the United States are now wondering if it possible to achieve a victory with less resources than expected.