Egypt Begins Reform Meeting

Published in Nikkei Shimbun
(Japan) on 8 February 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ryo Christopher Kato. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
The anti-government demonstrations in Egypt continue to demand that President Mubarak step down at once, while the president, citing the possibility of further chaos, refuses to resign immediately. If one examines the situation under a demonstrators-president dichotomy, there appears to be a stalemate. However, the actual political situation has begun to move toward the end of authoritarian rule. It is crucial to recognize the importance of what has been happening for the past several days.

On the first of this month, the president announced that this current term will be his last. With this announcement, focus has shifted to the upcoming elections in September and the need to build a framework for governmental transition and a roadmap for democratization.

While the demonstrators ceaselessly demand the president’s immediate resignation, Vice President Suleiman has opened talks with opposition groups. The conference held on [Feb. 6] discussed topics such as constitutional reform, repeal of martial law and the process of democratization.

The Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamic fundamentalist organization that has called for Mubarak’s resignation, also participated in the conference. The conference yielded an agreement to establish a constitutional reform preparatory committee and to repeal martial law.

Of course, the conference has only recently begun. For one, how will the constitution be altered to remove the barriers that make it difficult for opposition parties to run a candidate in presidential elections? Also, how and when will martial law — that has allowed normal judicial procedures to be bypassed on grounds that it disrupted antigovernment forces — be repealed? The specifics of this have not taken shape, but it is encouraging that this process has started.

As the government loses power and the fears of a power vacuum increase, the military has stepped in, while America and other leading powers voiced their support. However, Mr. Obama has noticeably avoided calling on Mr. Mubarak’s immediate resignation. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Clinton has said, “Change takes a certain amount of time.”*

For the demonstrators demanding an immediate resignation, it is crucial for a speedy transition to democratization. It will be difficult to determine the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the new political framework. It will not do to take too long or to rush the process. Cognizant of the inherent difficulties, I hope that there is progress for cooperation on political reform that will help to avoid further turmoil.

*Editor’s Note: This quote, accurately translated, could not be verified.


エジプトの反政府デモは、ムバラク大統領の即時退陣を迫り続ける。一方で大統領は、深刻な混乱を招くとしてすぐに辞任することは拒否する。「デモ」対「大統領」という図式では膠着状態に陥ったが、現実の政治は独裁体制の幕引きに向けて動き始めた。過去数日の変化の重要性を、まず認識する必要がある。

 大統領は1日、今期限りでの退任を表明した。その時点で政治の大きな焦点は、次の大統領選に向けた暫定的な政治の枠組みづくりと、民主化の行程表に移ったといえる。

 大統領の即時退陣をなお求めて譲らないデモの動きとは別に、スレイマン副大統領が呼びかけた野党勢力との協議が始まった。6日の協議でさっそく、憲法改正、非常事態法の解除など民主化に向けた中心テーマに踏み込んだことに注目すべきだ。

協議には、大統領退陣が先決として呼びかけを拒んできた事実上最大の野党であるイスラム原理主義組織「ムスリム同胞団」も加わった。そして、改憲準備委員会の設置で合意し、非常事態法の解除を検討する方向で一致した。

もちろん、協議は始まったばかりだ。大統領選への野党候補出馬を困難にさせていた憲法をどう変えるのか。逮捕令状など通常の司法手続きなしで反政府勢力を拘束する根拠とされた非常事態法を、いつ解除するのか。具体的な中身はこれからだが、政治改革プロセスが曲がりなりにも始まったのは前向きの一歩だ。

 なし崩し的に政権が倒れ、「力の空白」で混乱がより深刻になるのは避けたいとの考えを、警察に代わって秩序維持の中心になったエジプト軍も、米国など主要国も共有しつつある。米オバマ政権は「ムバラク大統領の即時退陣」という直接的な表現は、微妙に避けている。クリントン米国務長官は「変化には一定の時間がかかる」と語った。
 即時退陣を迫るデモに対しては、民主化の道筋を早急に明示する必要がある。同胞団にも円滑な政治体制移行の責任分担を求める狙いを込めた協議は、結論をすぐ出すのが難しい。時間をかけすぎても、急ぎすぎてもダメ。困難は承知のうえで、これ以上の混乱の回避につながるような政治改革協議の進展を望みたい。
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