Will the Tea Party Soon Be the Fall Guy?

By next Thursday, the Congressional “supercommittee,” established in August to reduce the United States’ debt that has grown to $2 trillion in over 10 years, will have to deliver its decision. On Nov. 23, the committee’s decision will be received by members of Congress who will have to immediately adopt it without the ability to make any amendments.

But things are still a long way off. The 12 members of this special committee, made up of Republicans and Democrats alike, are in a deadlock. While the Democrats have accepted the budget cuts proposed by Republicans, the Republicans have, until now, flatly refused any increase in taxes. The situation is at a standstill, but things may be changing.

In an astounding clap of thunder, Patrick Toomey and Jeb Hensarling, the two fiercest anti-tax Republicans in Congress, have started an energetic behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign to encourage their colleagues to break the Republican pact and vote alongside Democrats to raise taxes. Their proposal would generate $300 billion of additional tax revenue in a decade, a revolution that could have major consequences for the party in the coming election year.

Ever since George Bush Sr. broke his promise after the famous quote, “Read my lips, no new taxes,” Republicans have stuck to their credo of never raising taxes. George Bush Jr. led two wars without going back on this principle, which is tied to the United States’ current situation. Republicans remember that they lost George Bush Sr.’s re-election because the electorate had been demoralized by his promise being broken. Today, Republicans are caught between a rock and a hard place: Either do nothing and prove to Americans once again that Congress is incapable of governing the country, even in times of crisis, or accept the creation of new taxes and antagonize the tea party, the anti-tax movement that brought Republicans to power. In addition, Republicans have a sword of Damocles hanging over their heads. If the supercommittee fails, automatic cuts in the defense budget will be encouraged.

Resistance is already being organized. North Carolina representative, Patrick Henry, sent a protest letter signed by 70 other Republican representatives. Americans for Prosperity, an ultra-conservative group, has targeted 40 Republican representatives who have expressed openness to the possibility of new taxes.

Barack Obama, whose approval rating has gone up according to a Pew Research Center poll, has everything to gain from this Republican imbroglio; he’ll either sound like the voice of reason while Republicans publicly tear each other apart, or take advantage of the tea party’s disempowerment after being betrayed by its Republican allies. As one misfortune never comes alone, Republicans are preparing to choose Mitt Romney, the candidate farthest from tea party principles, as their presidential candidate. It’s a bad year for populists.