America’s Domestic “War” Will Overshadow Its Foreign Ones

The “Domestic War” is America’s Political Priority

America’s general election will take place in 2012; from the presidential election, to the House of Representatives elections, to the elections of state governors, elections are the top priority in American politics this year. There is reason to believe that there will be a new condition of domestic “war” and foreign “peace” in America this year. In other words, the gunsmoke from America’s domestic politics will be much thicker than that from their international politics.

First, let’s discuss America’s domestic “war.” A two-man struggle between America’s current president [Barack] Obama and the Republican Party candidate [Mitt] Romney is very likely going to take place. For three years, “class warfare” has been the term used by Obama’s opponents to denounce his policies. In the past, Obama would evade such criticisms, but recently he has responded to them with confidence and conviction. With no fear of that term, he said in this year’s State of the Union address: “Now, you can call this class warfare all you want. But asking a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary in taxes? Most Americans would call that common sense.” In response, Romney accused him of “use[ing] the State of the Union to divide our nation.” The slogan shouted out by the ongoing “Occupy Wall Street” movement is “99 percent vs. 1 percent.” All of this really does have a bit of class-struggle atmosphere. It’s very likely that this year’s presidential election will turn into a domestic “war.”

Next let’s look at America’s external “peace.” This is primarily reflected in two areas: One is seeking Asia-Pacific stability, and the other is watching from the sidelines in the Middle East. According to the new adjustment in American military strategy, America’s overseas military footprint will gradually decrease. Perhaps they will imitate the method used last May to kill Osama bin Laden and increase the capacity for precision airstrikes against resistance fighters. After ending the Iraq war and progressively reducing the number of troops in Afghanistan, Obama will emphasize the “return to Asia” strategy. As the writer sees it, even though America seems to have increased its military power in the Asia-Pacific region, its main goal is still seek stability rather than war. America uses its allies to play military chess with China, practicing “non-contact tai chi” but strengthening Sino-American military dialogue at the same time. Just as U.S. Admiral in the Pacific Command Robert Willard said, “close Chinese-U.S. cooperation” in the Asia-Pacific region is crucial.

Additionally, the features of America’s external “peace” are also reflected in their “watching from the sidelines” in the Middle East. After the “Arab Spring,” developments within Middle Eastern governments are shifting more and more out of line with American wishes. Obama, who usually maintains a realist’s attitude toward international strategy, has no choice but to assume a dignified posture and not take any reckless risks. America “gave away the bride and lost its army too,” but still can’t control the Iraq situation, and especially can’t stop Iraq and Iran from becoming increasingly close. American helped to topple the Mubarak regime, but what replaced it was a new Egypt prone to fundamentalist Islam coupled with unstable relations with the U.S.

Iran, which is determined to become a nuclear power, is most troubling to the U.S. because their bag of tricks is empty. Economic sanctions never achieved their objective. Iran is a Middle Eastern population superpower, with a population of over 70 million. America got a lesson in blood from invading Iraq, population 30 million. They definitely aren’t anxious to charge into Iran and repeat their mistake. Without a nod from Washington, Israel doesn’t dare act rashly. Obama has been the coldest American president in history toward Israel. He won’t support Israel taking preemptive action. Starting a war with Iran is a far cry from being America’s priority this year.

(The author is a well known Chinese-Indian scholar residing in the U.S.)