America’s Domestic “War” Will Overshadow Its Foreign Ones

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 1 February 2012
by Tan Zhong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Peter Nix. Edited by Louis Standish.
The “Domestic War” is America’s Political Priority

America’s general election will take place in 2012; from the presidential election, to the House of Representatives elections, to the elections of state governors, elections are the top priority in American politics this year. There is reason to believe that there will be a new condition of domestic “war” and foreign “peace” in America this year. In other words, the gunsmoke from America’s domestic politics will be much thicker than that from their international politics.

First, let’s discuss America’s domestic “war.” A two-man struggle between America’s current president [Barack] Obama and the Republican Party candidate [Mitt] Romney is very likely going to take place. For three years, “class warfare” has been the term used by Obama’s opponents to denounce his policies. In the past, Obama would evade such criticisms, but recently he has responded to them with confidence and conviction. With no fear of that term, he said in this year’s State of the Union address: "Now, you can call this class warfare all you want. But asking a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary in taxes? Most Americans would call that common sense." In response, Romney accused him of “use[ing] the State of the Union to divide our nation." The slogan shouted out by the ongoing “Occupy Wall Street” movement is “99 percent vs. 1 percent.” All of this really does have a bit of class-struggle atmosphere. It’s very likely that this year’s presidential election will turn into a domestic “war.”

Next let’s look at America’s external “peace.” This is primarily reflected in two areas: One is seeking Asia-Pacific stability, and the other is watching from the sidelines in the Middle East. According to the new adjustment in American military strategy, America’s overseas military footprint will gradually decrease. Perhaps they will imitate the method used last May to kill Osama bin Laden and increase the capacity for precision airstrikes against resistance fighters. After ending the Iraq war and progressively reducing the number of troops in Afghanistan, Obama will emphasize the “return to Asia” strategy. As the writer sees it, even though America seems to have increased its military power in the Asia-Pacific region, its main goal is still seek stability rather than war. America uses its allies to play military chess with China, practicing “non-contact tai chi” but strengthening Sino-American military dialogue at the same time. Just as U.S. Admiral in the Pacific Command Robert Willard said, “close Chinese-U.S. cooperation” in the Asia-Pacific region is crucial.

Additionally, the features of America’s external “peace” are also reflected in their “watching from the sidelines” in the Middle East. After the “Arab Spring,” developments within Middle Eastern governments are shifting more and more out of line with American wishes. Obama, who usually maintains a realist’s attitude toward international strategy, has no choice but to assume a dignified posture and not take any reckless risks. America “gave away the bride and lost its army too,” but still can’t control the Iraq situation, and especially can’t stop Iraq and Iran from becoming increasingly close. American helped to topple the Mubarak regime, but what replaced it was a new Egypt prone to fundamentalist Islam coupled with unstable relations with the U.S.

Iran, which is determined to become a nuclear power, is most troubling to the U.S. because their bag of tricks is empty. Economic sanctions never achieved their objective. Iran is a Middle Eastern population superpower, with a population of over 70 million. America got a lesson in blood from invading Iraq, population 30 million. They definitely aren’t anxious to charge into Iran and repeat their mistake. Without a nod from Washington, Israel doesn’t dare act rashly. Obama has been the coldest American president in history toward Israel. He won’t support Israel taking preemptive action. Starting a war with Iran is a far cry from being America’s priority this year.

(The author is a well known Chinese-Indian scholar residing in the U.S.)


谭中:美国“内战”火药味要比“外战”浓得多
摘要:在国际战略中一贯持现实主义态度的奥巴马只能装出一副威严姿态而不会铤而走险。美国“赔了夫人又折兵”,却不能控制伊拉克局势,特别不能制止伊拉克与伊朗日益靠拢。
(“内战”才是美国政治要务)
  作者:谭中 旅居美国的知名印籍华人学者
  2012年是美国大选年,从总统大选到众议院选举、州长选举,竞选是今年美国政治生活的重中之重。有理由相信,今年美国将呈现一种内“战”与外“和”的新形势,也就是说,美国国内政治的火药味将比国际政治的浓厚得多。
  先谈谈美国的内“战”形势。美国现任总统奥巴马与 共和党总统参选人罗姆尼之间的决斗很有可能上演。“阶级战争”一词是三年来奥巴马的政敌不时对其政策的攻讦。以前奥巴马对这“阶级战争”批评躲躲闪闪,如 今则理直气壮地应对。他在今年的国情咨文讲话中毫不避讳该词,他说:“你愿意的话就称它为阶级战争也未尝不可。但要一位亿万富翁缴税率至少和他的秘书相等 总不为过吧?”对此,罗姆尼却谴责他“利用国情咨文来分化富人和百姓”。尚未结束的“占领华尔街”运动喊出的就是“99%对1%”的口号。这一切倒真有点 阶级斗争的气氛。今年总统竞选很可能变成一场内“战”。
  再来看美国的外“和”形势,这主要体现在两个方面,一是亚太求稳,二是中东观望。根据美国的新军事战略调整,美国在海外的军靴脚印将逐渐减少。可能会仿照去年5月击毙本•拉登的做法,加大精确空袭打击对抗分子的力度。而奥巴马在结束伊拉克战争与逐步减少阿富汗战场军队后,侧重于“重返亚洲”战略。笔者看来,尽管美国在亚太地区看似加大了军力,但是其主要目的还是求稳而不是寻战。美国将联合盟国与中国军事博弈,打互不碰撞的“太极拳”,却又同时加强中美军事对话。正像美军太平洋司令威拉德所说“中美密切合作”对亚太地区是头等重要的。
  另外,美国外“和”形势的特点还体现在对中东的“观望”上。“阿拉伯之春”以后中东政治形势的发展越来越变得不以美国意志为转移。在国际战略中一贯持 现实主义态度的奥巴马只能装出一副威严姿态而不会铤而走险。美国“赔了夫人又折兵”,却不能控制伊拉克局势,特别不能制止伊拉克与伊朗日益靠拢。美国帮助 推翻穆巴拉克政权,可换来的是一个与美国关系不稳定的倾向于伊斯兰原教旨的新埃及。
  美国对坚决立志要成为核强国的伊朗最感头痛,苦于无锦囊妙计。经济制裁从来达不到目的。伊朗是中东人口大国,拥有7000多万人,美国有了侵占 3000万人的伊拉克的“血”的教训,绝对不会着急跑去伊朗重蹈覆辙。没有华盛顿点头,以色列是不敢对伊朗轻举妄动的。奥巴马是历任美国总统中对以色列亲 和力最弱的,不会支持以色列冒昧行动。对伊朗开战远远不是美国今年的要务。
(作者是旅居美国的知名印籍华人学者)
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