Obama Can’t Stop Israel
Published in Frankfurter Rundschau
(Germany) on 6 March 2012
by Bettina Vestring (link to original)
(Germany) on 6 March 2012
by Bettina Vestring (link to original)
Translated from
by Ron Argentati.
Edited by Katya Abazajian.
Obama doesn't want a new war in the Middle East but the power to prevent one is not in his hands; it's in Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's. Netanyahu knows that in an election year, Obama dares not refuse him.
The decisive sentence delivered by Netanyahu was this: “When it comes to Israel's security, Israel has the sovereign right to make its own decisions.” By not arguing that point, Obama fulfilled Netanyahu's most pressing wish and thereby gave the green light for Israel to hit Iran with air strikes.
Obama would not have made this pronouncement lightly. The American president doesn't want this war. He doubts that Israel is capable of completely knocking out Iranian nuclear facilities to the extent that Tehran would no longer be capable of producing atomic weapons. Obama fears that the United States would be drawn into an Iran-Israeli war. It's certain that Iranian anger, as well as that of its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, would also be directed at the United States.
Domestically, Obama also can't afford another war. An attack on Iran would cause an explosion in oil prices. The still fragile U.S. economic recovery would be hard hit and rising unemployment numbers are never good news for an incumbent president.
The Republican Presidential Candidates Are Pushing Obama
Yet those were also the words Obama spoke. Significantly, they were spoken not during the White House meeting between Obama and Netanyahu, but the day before when Obama addressed one of the richest and most powerful lobbies in Washington, the America Israeli Public Affairs Committee.
That's all the more relevant as Obama's challengers try to outdo one another in expressing their solidarity with Israel. Just before Super Tuesday, when 10 states hold primary elections, the calls for military action become ever shriller. Mitt Romney, the candidate with seemingly the best chances who could get the nomination on Super Tuesday charged, “If we re-elect Barack Obama, Iran will get a nuclear weapon. If we elect Mitt Romney, Iran will not.” It's no coincidence that Romney is also expected to address AIPAC today.
The result of all this is the painful irony that it's not American democracy that is the best hope of preventing a Middle Eastern war, but the parliamentary elections held in Iran last weekend. From a democratic standpoint, the election may not have gone particularly well, but politically it is cause for hope. President Ahmadinejad, the most urgent advocate for Iran's nuclear weapons program, did less well than expected and is now seen as being weakened. Maybe some common sense will make a return in Tehran.
The decisive sentence delivered by Netanyahu was this: “When it comes to Israel's security, Israel has the sovereign right to make its own decisions.” By not arguing that point, Obama fulfilled Netanyahu's most pressing wish and thereby gave the green light for Israel to hit Iran with air strikes.
Obama would not have made this pronouncement lightly. The American president doesn't want this war. He doubts that Israel is capable of completely knocking out Iranian nuclear facilities to the extent that Tehran would no longer be capable of producing atomic weapons. Obama fears that the United States would be drawn into an Iran-Israeli war. It's certain that Iranian anger, as well as that of its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, would also be directed at the United States.
Domestically, Obama also can't afford another war. An attack on Iran would cause an explosion in oil prices. The still fragile U.S. economic recovery would be hard hit and rising unemployment numbers are never good news for an incumbent president.
The Republican Presidential Candidates Are Pushing Obama
Yet those were also the words Obama spoke. Significantly, they were spoken not during the White House meeting between Obama and Netanyahu, but the day before when Obama addressed one of the richest and most powerful lobbies in Washington, the America Israeli Public Affairs Committee.
That's all the more relevant as Obama's challengers try to outdo one another in expressing their solidarity with Israel. Just before Super Tuesday, when 10 states hold primary elections, the calls for military action become ever shriller. Mitt Romney, the candidate with seemingly the best chances who could get the nomination on Super Tuesday charged, “If we re-elect Barack Obama, Iran will get a nuclear weapon. If we elect Mitt Romney, Iran will not.” It's no coincidence that Romney is also expected to address AIPAC today.
The result of all this is the painful irony that it's not American democracy that is the best hope of preventing a Middle Eastern war, but the parliamentary elections held in Iran last weekend. From a democratic standpoint, the election may not have gone particularly well, but politically it is cause for hope. President Ahmadinejad, the most urgent advocate for Iran's nuclear weapons program, did less well than expected and is now seen as being weakened. Maybe some common sense will make a return in Tehran.
Quite correct: Obama has no control over Israel, as the Lobby has taken control out of his hands.
The best Obama can hope for is an “October surprise,” courtesy of Bibi. Anything earlier risks the war going south and influencing the election against Obama (which would, of course, make Bibi a very happy man).