“I Don’t See Any Space for a Breakthrough in the Relationship with the US”

Political analyst Kiril Koktish talks about Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Barack Obama.

The deployment of ballistic missile defense systems in Europe and the “Magnitsky List” were the central topics during the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama. Kiril Koktish, an associate professor in the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute for International Affairs, reflected on the impending meeting with Kommersant FM host Andrey Norkin.

On Monday, the leaders of Russia met the U.S. on the field of the G-20 Summit in Los Cabos, Mexico. As expected, Putin and Obama also discussed the situation in Afghanistan, Iran and Syria.

I understand that Barack Obama has the chance to find out today whether Vladimir Putin conveyed his wish about the ballistic missile defense to Dmitrii Medvedev . What do you think? Can we expect any political breakthroughs during the meeting between Putin and Obama?

I think right now it will likely just confirm the readiness of both sides to work in this direction, since the Obama administration did everything it could about the Magnitsky List. Without a prior arrangement, it carried out the sanctions in the cases of six people, but this did not hold up to the dilatory motion in Congress. There is a lot of certainty that Congress will pass it, which is why this is not part of the discussion, which is now on decisions about the ballistic missile defense. After the conversation between Obama and Medvedev was released to the U.S. press, they cannot openly change their positions, at least not until the U.S. presidential elections. And concerning Afghanistan and using Russian bases for transporting and transferring troops, this question will be answered, likely, to the satisfaction of the whole U.S.

How about Iran and Syria?

Iran and Syria have space. I think there could most likely be a breakthrough here too, since the breakthrough would protect the status quo. If Russia concedes Syria, then it in effect will sanction a change in the Christian-Muslim massacre. This would be a completely amazing scenario, something that has been unfolding in the Arab Spring until this time. The U.S. cannot cushion its position on Syria for the single reason that, in any case, it holds up or has already held up the democratic position on rebels. That is to say that this breakthrough would protect the positions of the countries so that they could stay the same without any bumps.

And what do you think the public stance will be? Will the relations between Russia and the U.S. stay good, like they were with President Medvedev, or will they become closer and more fruitful and so on?

Right now, I think there is not enough space for them to become closer or more fruitful. There is a readiness and desire for the leaders on both sides to work in this direction. But the physical possibility of an intervention with this set of issues, which is made for today, is just not there until November, which is to say, until the U.S. presidential elections.

I am just wondering, what will they talk about during the press conference, if, of course, they have one?

Most likely both sides will confirm their readiness to work together on strategic issues. I think that they will say something about a reform plan for international financial institutions, but, honestly, the issues of the G-20 are unsolvable, which is why you can declare quite a lot and quite boldly. Nevertheless, the radical reforms will not be sanctioned at the G-20. It is not ready for that yet. That is why there will be general declarations about crisis-fighting and upholding stability: That is to say, that which will suit both countries. But physically, I honestly don’t see any space today for any breakthroughs. After November it will come up, but not before.