The American Budget: Is There Light at theEnd of the Tunnel?

Even though a provisional compromise has been reached, the issue of the federal budget will return to center stage in January. What will the final outcome be? Laurence Nardon, head of the United States program at the Institut Français des Relations Internationales [French Institute for International Relations], discusses the situation.

Offering a glimmer of hope for the American political system, senators voted for a procedural change in their chamber at the end of November: During confirmation votes for governmental and judicial officials that the president appoints, it will now be possible to end a filibuster by a simple majority vote. Until now, a cloture vote of 60 out of 100 senators was necessary to put an end to this procedure of obstruction, which could be triggered by a single senator. Confirmations were happening at a snail’s pace, on average taking seven months under Obama. This change ought to make it possible for the current president and his successors to put their administrations in place more quickly.

The Ever Possible Blockades

We must applaud the abandonment of this policy, which Democratic senators — who hold the majority with 55 seats — approved with the new procedure. It is true. It has deprived senators their personal veto power on presidential choices. However, it has not solved all problems: During votes on bills and the confirmation of judges to the Supreme Court, the requirement for 60 senatorial votes to end a filibuster remains the norm. Although this system undoubtedly corresponds with the balance of powers the Founding Fathers wanted, it favors blockades, while a context of ideological intransigence prevails.

A Radicalization of the Right Wing of the Republican Party

Yet, since 2009, the Republican Party has been facing a radicalization of its right wing. If the emergence of the tea party is in part a knee-jerk reaction to Barack Obama’s election, it is also the most recent resurgence of a radical, populist feeling that has always been there in the country. This “lunatic fringe” has taken the entire Republican Party hostage, even though it only represents a minority — four in 10 Republicans, according to a Pew study in November 2013. By nominating overly extreme candidates, it cost the party several elections during the 2010 midterms.

The real question here is whether moderate members of the Republican Party will figure out how to make their ideologues bend. A year ago, people might have thought they would regain the upper hand, in the wake of Mitt Romney’s defeat, but it did not happen. They were given a new opportunity in October with the government shutdown. Indeed, during this crisis, which almost brought the country to default, popular opinion certainly blamed the intransigence of the tea party.

The Budgetary Compromise Reached at the End of October Has Only Dragged Out the Problems

Ultimately, the budgetary compromise reached at the end of October has only dragged out the problems, and the weeks to come are going to be decisive. The government has an operating budget until Jan. 15.

After that, in the absence of a budget compromise, new automatic cuts — sequestration — will go into effect. As well as running the risk of weakening the economic recovery, cuts to the defense and social program budgets will be equally difficult politically for both Republicans and Democrats. As for the federal debt cap, it will be exceeded around Feb. 7. A default would have implications for world financial markets.

The Tea Party’s Extortion

A bipartisan group of members from the two houses of Congress was put together to establish a long-term budget. It must declare its conclusions by Dec. 13. There is no doubt that the tea party is going to recommence its extortion then, linking its acceptance of a budgetary compromise with a step back on “Obamacare” by the administration. In particular, it wants the requirement for individuals to take out personal insurance — the individual mandate, which runs contrary to the principle of personal responsibility — to be abandoned. In particular, the leader of the Republican minority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, is actively seeking to derail the efforts of this working group. He is facing a tea party candidate in the Kentucky Republican primaries for the November 2014 midterms, and he has to appear more radical than his opponent.

Maybe the Tide Has Turned

However, the tide may have finally turned. Facing growing exasperation from popular opinion against the congressional blockade, the leaders of the two houses of Congress have had the courage to make their troops bend. It was thanks to the Republican speaker of the House, the reasonable John Boehner, that a budgetary compromise was finally adopted last October. In the Senate, the Democratic speaker, Harry Reid, used the “nuclear option,” which made it possible for him to vote in laws by simple majority in order to pass the procedural reform by the end of November.

Other laws, at the state level, may confirm this “de-radicalization” of the American electoral process. The return to open primaries, rather than the closed primaries reserved for partisans, would make it possible for more moderate candidates to be appointed. No longer allowing winners of previous elections to divide electoral boundaries would result in the creation of more mixed electoral districts, and elected representatives willing to compromise would emerge.

Everything Relies on the Economic Re-establishment of the Country

Of course, the pursuit of the country’s economic re-establishment — releasing the budgetary pressure at a federal level and improving the situation of the middle class across the country — may be able to appease the opposition. Employment figures have been better than expected in October, notably showing a strong rise in recruitment. The U.S. could therefore demonstrate its resilience again in the months to come.