China Adds Russia to Its Anti-Japan Alliance, America Makes a Mistake in Offending China and Russia

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 15 May 2014
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yuzhi Yang. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Masaru Sato, an ex-official of Japan's Foreign Ministry, wrote in Japan’s Sports Hochi that while Putin’s visit to China seemed like a discussion of energy exports, Russia and China were in fact strengthening their political and military alliance in the face of Russian isolation due to the Ukrainian crisis. The U.S.-Russia relationship would continue to deteriorate, and China would attempt to add Russia to its anti-Japan alliance.

Can America stop Russia’s Asian energy policy? Gal Luft, Senior Advisor to the United States Energy Security Council, recommended that America should cooperate with governments in the Asia-Pacific region (China, Japan, South Korea) and gradually change the natural energy market into a competition of energy sources, rather than letting Russia monopolize the area. In addition, Washington is working hard to involve China and India in international energy organizations. Meanwhile, Russia is strongly retaliating against America’s inhibitive policies. On the 13th, Dmitry Rogozin, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia expressed that Russia might pause 11 American-owned GPS’ ground-level operations in Russia on June 1, and stop their operation completely after that. Rogozin also said that Russia might stop exporting any rocket engines to America, and is considering stopping the space station after 2020.

Ted Galen Carpenter, an analyst with the Cato Institute, warned that it is unwise to make China-Russia into an anti-American alliance. He said in the American publication The National Interest that America is on the verge of a major foreign policy mistake: offending two major countries at the same time. Carpenter recommended that America improve its relationship with China and Russia, and that if Obama could not achieve this goal, then at least make one country its main opponent rather than endangering its relationship with both countries. “The last thing we should want to do is inadvertently help reverse the split between Moscow and Beijing that began in the late 1950s.”

On the 14th, the Pentagon welcomed Fang Fenghui, the Chinese military’s chief of staff. The German newspaper Rheinische Post speculated that American invitation of the Chinese military top brass and a tour of the aircraft carrier showed the two military powers have somewhat improved their relationship.

In a time of Ukrainian crisis and the China-Japan island conflict, every gesture between China and Russia is worth extra analysis. America is worried that China would side with Russia. The Independent, a Russian paper, said Washington is attempting to kiss up to China and isolate Moscow, that it is trying to deepen the China-U.S. military partnership to obstruct the China-Russia relationship. Zhou Qi, an analyst with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, spoke to Huanqiu reporters on the 14th. He said that from the viewpoint of major country relationships, America indeed has some security concerns about its own interests, and feels it has pushed China away on some issues. Allowing China and Russia to have policy coordination on more and more major international issues may directly or indirectly affect America’s national interest.

The Segye Times, a Korean paper, analyzed on the 14th that, while China and America are exchanging sharp diplomatic retorts over South Sea issues, the two countries are in fact accelerating their conversations in the military arena. A framework of “seeking balance and cooperation within opposition and checks-and-balances” is becoming more and more evident. China and America may be criticizing each other over East Sea and South Sea issues, but both countries are clear on one point, and that is to avoid a military conflict. Fang’s U.S. visit happened at a time of increased diplomatic fencing between China and America, and the two countries’ militaries might engage in an “under-the-table discussion.”

Alexander Neill, Senior Fellow of Britain’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, felt that while the American Secretary of Defense exchanged sharp words with Chinese officials during his last visit to Beijing, the fact that Fang kept his visit made one feel encouraged. This indicates that the China-U.S. military relationship is rational and mature. In his analysis, Fang emphasized to the Americans, “Do not engage in the South Sea,” and also discussed the Ukrainian situation. America might have exerted pressure on China, hoping it would not follow Russia too far on such issues as Ukrainian security.


【环球军事报道】前日本外务省官员佐藤优在日本《体育报知》上撰文称,普京访问中国表面上是要谈能源出口,实际是在俄因乌克兰危机陷入更加孤立状况下,俄中强化在政治和军事上的合作姿态。美俄关系今后还会恶化,中国试图将俄罗斯纳入反日统一战线中。“美国能否停止俄罗斯的亚洲能源政策?”美国国家能源安全理事会高级顾问盖尔拉夫撰文建议,美国应该与亚太地区的政府(中日韩)合作,逐渐将天然气市场转变成气-气竞争,而非俄罗斯垄断。此外,华盛顿要努力把中国和印度纳入国际能源机构。而对美国的遏制政策,俄罗斯以强硬态度回击。俄副总理罗戈津13日表示,6月1日俄可能暂停在俄境内美国11个GPS地面站工作,之后全面停止。罗戈津还表示,可能停止向美出口火箭发动机,同时,2020年后不打算延长空间站寿命。

“别把中俄弄成反美联盟。”美国卡托研究所研究员德·卡朋特在美国《国家利益》杂志上撰文称,美国正处于外交政策严重错误边缘,那就是同时得罪 两个大国。卡朋特建议美国改善与俄中关系,并认为,如奥巴马做不到,至少要明确只把一个作为最主要对手,而不要同时与两个大国都关系恶化,“我们最不愿看 到的事情就是美国无意中协助修复上世纪50年代末以来中俄关系的裂痕”。

14日,五角大楼迎来中国总参谋长房峰辉。德国《杜 塞尔多夫晚报》分析称,目前美国力邀中国总长访美,还参观美国航母,两大军事强国之间关系有所改善。

在乌克兰危机和中日岛屿争端的敏感时期,中俄之间合作 的一举一动都格外受关注,美国特别担心中国站在俄罗斯一边。俄罗斯《独立报》称,华盛顿企图以此向北京献媚来孤立莫斯科,企图通过深化中美军事合作阻挠中 国和俄罗斯接近。中国社科院美国所研究员周琪14日告诉《环球时报》记者,从大国关系的角度来观察,美方的确产生了一些涉及切身利益的安全担忧,感觉在一 些问题上把中国“推远了”,让中俄在越来越多的重大国际问题上采取更多的“政策协调”,直接或者间接地影响了美国的国家利益。



韩国《世 界日报》14日评论称,虽然美中两国在南海问题上正在持续进行尖锐的外交攻防,但在军事领域两国间的对话却在加速进行,“对立、牵制中谋求均衡、合作”的 美中关系架构正越来越具体呈现。目前美中两国虽然在东海和南海问题上相互批判,但有一点是双方都明确的,那就是避免中美直接军队对决。房峰辉访美正值中美 最近外交攻防加剧的情况下,两国军方有可能持续展开“桌面下的对话”。


在亚历山大·尼尔看来,尽管美国防长不久前访问北京时与中国官员发生“激烈口角”,但这次房峰辉依然保持与美军对话与往来的行动“令人 感到鼓舞”,因为这说明中美军事关系的理性和成熟。据他分析,房峰辉会向美方强调“不要插手南海问题”,并就乌克兰局势的前景与美方进行对话。预计美方会 给中方施加压力,期望中国在乌克兰等地区安全局势问题上不要跟着俄罗斯的政策“走太远”。
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