Cuba-United States: ‘It’s the End of the Cold War on the American Continent’

Barack Obama and Raul Castro have simultaneously announced the opening of negotiations to normalize the relationship between their countries, a historical reconciliation after over 50 years of damaged diplomatic relations. Here is the reaction of Olivier Dabene, a professor of political science and expert on Latin America.

Why does this announcement come now?

We can simultaneously see reasons related to the American political agenda, as well as diplomatic reasons. On the domestic front, Obama is more apt to take risks now that he has nothing to lose, with two years left to his second and last term. Those risks are not that high, since Americans have evolved [in their opinions of] relations with Cuba. They are no longer attached to the heritage of the Cold War. Even the community of Cuban origin is no longer supporting this issue as in the past; its most radical members don’t matter as much as they did in the past. Their electoral influence has decreased. Anyway, Florida, where the majority of them lived, has very little chance of falling into the hands of the Democrats.

And on the diplomatic plan?

The Latin American countries are preparing the Summit of the Americas, planned for April in Panama. Several of the countries in the region have made it clear that they would boycott the summit if Cuba were not invited.

Barack Obama made a good impression during the first Summit of the Americas, in which he participated in 2009. But after the hype, the American president disappointed on three topics especially: immigration, Cuba and the drug issue. Obama made significant progress on the issue of undocumented immigrants a few weeks ago. The normalization with Cuba will, therefore, allow a calmer climate with Latin America. The challenge is not so much an economic one, since the United States has already established direct bilateral relations with the most important countries on the economic front. The diplomatic win itself will be huge for inter-American relations. It’s the end of the Cold War on this continent.

What may the consequences of this normalization be for Cuba?

It’s good news for the population, the separated families. But this reconciliation can bring changes of great magnitude. Cuba will face an influx of tourists, goods and probably investments.

A portion of the government is certainly worried about this upheaval. The embargo and isolation suited them. Some of them may fear being swept aside by the upcoming wave. That said, the regime had already started to evolve. It made gestures of openness on economic matters based on the Chinese model, liberalizing the economy and maintaining an authoritarian political regime. Re-establishing relations with the United States will, without doubt, deal a fatal blow to what is left of the revolution. The dollarization of the economy will accelerate. Also, inequalities could well be accentuated.