Building a Mechanism to Avoid Clashes Between Powers’ Military Forces

The downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey has sparked a discussion about whether the incident might lead to direct military conflict between members of the international community which are linked to the two nations involved, or even between Russia and NATO. While peaceful development is still the order of the day, regional wars and conflict have always remained but a stone’s throw away. Military clashes, particularly between great powers, can be extremely dangerous. If aggravated, such confrontations could result in terrible destruction and have far-reaching implications.

A rational analysis will find that the possibility of such a clash between powers certainly exists. The end of the Cold War brought changes to the military game being played out around the world. As the planet’s foremost military power, the United States prepared for fighting a war on a global scale, and after establishing the Air Force Global Strike Command, also organized a “strategic bomber command” capable of carrying out strikes around the world. Asian nations are increasingly joining the ranks of the global military elite, and these new powers have conflicts of interest with each other in addition to presenting a challenge to the global hegemony of the United States; one such example is the perceived threat to U.S. interests that Russia has introduced in the Arctic Circle.

On a global scale, the Arctic, Central Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific regions are the four strategic centers most closely scrutinized by major powers; and they are also hot spots for the military games played by those powers. Take, for example, jousting between the United States and Russia in the Black Sea and Mediterranean in relation to the Ukraine crisis, or “close” encounters between submarines in the tug of war over the North Pole.

Among those four primary strategic regions, the probability of a military clash between powers is highest within the Asia-Pacific. Although the region is the only one not to have produced an open conflict since the end of the Cold War, there has been no shortage of military incidents and friction between powers. As to why Asia-Pacific is the “hottest” locale when it comes to such clashes, there are several primary reasons.

First, of the four, the region contains the highest concentration of military powers and is where the United States has deployed the most troops. The world’s last superpower is now steadily redistributing its overseas manpower to Asia and the Pacific, in order to attain its goal of having the region account for two-thirds of its deployments abroad before 2020. At the same time, the region has become the engine driving worldwide economic development, and those nations which have the means are training their strategic sights upon the region; making it an area of dense overlapping interests between powers. The military powers and organizations of other nations are now probing further into Asia and the Pacific, just as NATO has by involving itself in the region’s affairs. Additionally, the region has more “hot spots” flaring up than in other locations, with more nations typically involved than with incidents in other parts of the world. At the same time, the problem of nations seeking to use violence to resolve issues is more pervasive in Asia and the Pacific than the other major strategic areas.

One cannot deny the sway that the Asia-Pacific region holds over the rest of the globe, whether it be economic, political or in the realm of security. Maintaining the security and stability of the region is an issue that receives much attention, and avoiding a military clash there between powers has become a matter of urgency.

In the opinion of this author, a mechanism for preventing such clashes should be created, starting from the following. First, nations should establish a conduit for military notifications between powers in the region. Those nations that participate in the system should inform other member states of major military operations. Second, establish a military ship and aircraft identification system for common use between nations. In situations where advance notification would not be possible, the relevant nations’ ships and aircraft would be able to use this system to identify each other and avoid clashes or mistaken aggression. Third, establish a mechanism for regular meetings. Through these meetings, nations could inform one another of new developments in the direction of their military strategy and increase military transparency. Fourth, hold an annual military conference for the region to research and discuss questions on the prevention of military incidents and to provide suggestions that will guide government policy. Fifth, create publications that research and explore those same questions, and also provide knowledge to help inform government policy.

In summary, establishing a mechanism to avoid military clashes within the Asia-Pacific region would be a key step toward safeguarding peace and stability regionally, and an important starting point for maintaining the peace and stability of the globe.

The author is a professor at the PLA National Defense University.