The Syria Attack Signals a Change in the Direction of the US Administration

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 8 April 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Deborah Chapin. Edited by Christine Murrison.
In what direction is the world being led? A comprehensive strategy cannot be discerned from the attack on Syria by the Trump administration. This course of action is the opposite of the conventional plans one would expect in order to bring peace to the Middle East in cooperation with Russia. Such a sharp turn in a superpower can hasten disorder in the world.

President Trump has emphasized that the change in policy came about because President Bashar Assad used chemical weapons to slaughter innocent civilians. Syria is part of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Therefore, if Assad genuinely used chemical weapons, the United States’ retaliation is justified.

Nevertheless, using military force without presenting clear proof to organizations like the U.N. Security Council is going too far. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq, thinking that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. However, the U.S. could not find any.

Did President Trump act in this way because he wanted to be different from Obama, who was constantly hesitant to use military force? If so, this is not consistent with remarks he made during the presidential election campaign, when he claimed that America would not be the world’s policeman. It would be a grave issue if the aim were to conceal uncertain relations between political leaders and Russia.

Russia has continuously adopted a supportive stance with regard to President Assad. It is quite possible that the United States’ anti-Assad actions could further prolong the civil war. Is the U.S. considering preparations for a case in which refugees once again are roused in great numbers to crowd into Europe? At a summit with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Trump would not even shake her hand. Leaving the rest up to the European Union is too irresponsible.

Iran’s condition has also become uncertain. Russia and the United States have become the proponents of restricting the development of nuclear weapons, but the agreement may have to be sent back to the drawing board.

The condition of Asia’s security cannot yet be discerned. President Trump will not hesitate to use military force. This kind of impression might have the result of putting pressure on North Korea. However, there is still fear that this will trigger violence instead.

Meanwhile, North Korea’s relationship with China is also sensitive. The only thing that is certain is that the strategy of isolating China by joining with Russia is no longer useful.

At the White House, there are various power struggles, and, as usual, it is difficult to tell who is in control. The situation in which the world is manipulated by Trump’s administration is unlikely to end. It is vital to prepare for such a circumstance.


世界をどういう方向に導こうとしているのか。米トランプ政権のシリア攻撃からは包括的な戦略が見えてこない。ロシアと連携して中東を安定させる、という従来の方針とは正反対の動きである。超大国の急旋回は世界の混乱に拍車をかけかねない。
 シリアのアサド政権が罪もない市民を化学兵器で殺りくしたのをみて、方針を変えた。トランプ大統領はそう強調した。シリアは化学兵器禁止条約の加盟国であり、本当に使用したのならば非難されてしかるべきだ。
 とはいえ、国連安全保障理事会などに明確な証拠を提示することもなしに武力行使をしたのは、はやり過ぎである。米国は「大量破壊兵器を保有している」として2003年にイラクに攻め込んだが、発見できなかった。
 そうした過去への反省から武力行使に一貫して消極的だったオバマ前大統領との違いを出したかったのか。だとすれば、大統領選で公約した「米国は世界の警察官ではない」との発言と辻つまが合わない。政権幹部とロシアとの不透明な関係を隠蔽する狙いがあったのだとすれば重大問題である。
 ロシアは引き続きアサド政権を支える構えだ。米国が反アサドに回ることで内戦はさらに長引く可能性が高い。難民が再び大量に生まれ、欧州になだれ込んだ場合への備えは検討してあるのか。ドイツのメルケル首相との首脳会談でトランプ氏は握手もしなかった。あとは欧州連合(EU)に任せきりにするというのではあまりに無責任だ。
 イラン情勢も不透明になる。米ロが保証人になる形で核兵器開発を封じ込めたのに、合意が振り出しに戻るかもしれない。
 アジアの安保環境への影響はまだ読み切れない。トランプ政権は武力行使をためらわない。そう印象付け、北朝鮮に風圧を与える効果はあるだろう。ただ、それがかえって暴発の引き金になるおそれも十分ある。
 北朝鮮の背後にいる中国との関係も微妙である。ロシアと手を組んで中国を孤立させる、という外交カードがもはや役立たないことだけは確かである。
 ホワイトハウスではさまざまな権力闘争がなされているようで、相変わらず誰が司令塔なのかがよくわからない。世界がトランプ政権に振り回される状況は終わりそうもない。その覚悟が必要だ。
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