In Washington, ‘Compromise’ Is No Longer a Dirty Word

The 2020 U.S. presidential election was an even contest on both sides, and the new structure of Congress reflects this even split between the Democrats and Republicans.

Even now, the results are not entirely clear. It has been universally acknowledged that before the Georgia Senate race on Jan. 5, the next Senate will be in limbo; the Democrats will retain their majority in the House of Representatives, but with a notable decrease in the number of seats. The Republicans far outperformed the predictions of mainstream analysts in the Congressional races. Congressional Republican leaders attributed it all to Donald Trump. The results of the election displayed not only Trump’s strength, but also reflected the extraordinary support he elicits among Republican voters.

According to The Washington Post, the results of the election demonstrate that Americans are dissatisfied with the Democrats’ agenda and vision. America is still a right-leaning country.

The Temporary ‘Suspension’ of the Senate

After the election, the U.S. Senate, consisting of 100 seats, is temporarily in limbo. Right now, both the Democrats and Republicans hold 48 seats each. (The Democrats’ seats include two independents who voted with the Democratic Party.) The party that holds the remaining seats for both Alaska and North Carolina has yet to be determined, but it has been predicted that Republicans will win the two spots. In other words, it is very possible that Republicans will have at least 50 seats in the Senate.

The last two seats are tied to Georgia. To secure Georgia, the winning party needs more than 50% of the votes. If Republicans win at least one of the Senate seats, then they would have 51 or 52 in total and secure a Senate majority. Many believe that it would be way too difficult for the Democrats to secure these two Senate seats in what has traditionally been a red state. The Republicans have a very high chance of maintaining their power in the Senate.

According to most U.S. media outlets, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will retain their positions. McConnell is 78, and holds the record for the longest term served as Senate majority leader. On Nov. 7, he said, "I'm not sure if I will be the majority leader. This will be decided by Georgia ... If the Democratic Party wins these two seats, the role goes to Chuck Schumer."* Schumer is 69 this year.

The new Congress will assume office on Jan. 3, and the second round of elections in Georgia will be held on Jan. 5, meaning that the limbo in Congress won’t last very long. The first midterm elections are usually detrimental to the ruling party. If the Democrats cannot retake the Senate in the runoff election, it may be even harder to accomplish in two years.

No Blue Wave in the House of Representatives

As of Nov. 10, the Democratic Party had won 218 seats in the House of Representatives, the Republican Party, 201 seats, with the results of 16 seats yet to be determined. However, the Democratic lead in the House of Representatives declined, a result neither side expected.

NBC News forecast that the Democratic Party will eventually gain a total of 227 seats, with 208 seats then going to the Republican Party. Even if this prediction is not entirely accurate, it is enough to signify the growing popularity of the Republicans. The Wall Street Journal predicts that the Democratic Party may have the smallest majority in the House of Representatives in 20 years.

A “blue wave” occurred in the 2018 midterm election, with the Democrats winning 41 seats in the House of Representatives and seven governorships. This year, however, apart from the presidential race, no blue wave appeared in the congressional race or local elections. What’s more, despite raising and investing far more in campaign funds than the Republican Party the Democrats suffered losses in the House of Representatives. As of Nov. 10, they lost nine Democratic seats and three Republican seats.

By contrast, the Republicans retained their seats in Florida, South Carolina, Ohio and many other states, attracting a large number of white and Latino voters without any college education and weakening the Democratic Party’s pull among minority voters. Many of the new Republican members of Congress are staunch Trump supporters.

Kevin McCarthy is expected to remain the leader of the Republican minority in the House of Representatives. Nancy Pelosi, who is already 80, is likely to be reelected as speaker of the House. After the 2018 midterm elections, Pelosi, facing pressure from up-and-coming Democratic members of Congress, promised not to seek reelection. However, before the election this year, she stated that she would run for the post. Even if Pelosi is reelected as House speaker, her ability to influence and resolve tensions in the House is expected to decline.

The Republican Party not only performed strongly in congressional elections, but also retained control of most state legislatures. As of Nov. 8, the Democrats have not overthrown a single state legislature controlled by the Republican Party in the general election. This signifies that the Democrats' plans to swing congressional districts over the next 10 years has hit a roadblock.

More Divided than Ever

What impact will the new Congress have on the U.S. government?

First, the two parties have been historically evenly matched. From now on, more radical legislative agendas will be difficult to pass, and opportunities for systemic reform will be very limited. However, if the Joe Biden administration takes office, this problem would be alleviated somewhat.** Moving closer to the center and giving in to more compromise with Senate Republicans would allow for more effectual policy changes. Compromise will no longer be a dirty word in Washington.

Second, according to many U.S. media outlets, a weak Democratic victory means that it will be impossible to reform the Supreme Court, overturn the current lengthy procedural rules of the Senate, or establish Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico as states. The Democrats’ progressive agenda is significantly weakened. Any left-wing Cabinet nominee of Biden’s would also be hotly contested.

Third, Biden, Pelosi, and McConnell are experienced politicians with a history of negotiating deals. According to U.S. media outlets, Biden and McConnell have worked together in the Senate for a long time. The two men have a good personal relationship and a legacy of political cooperation. McConnell was also the only Republican senator to attend the funeral of Biden's eldest son in 2015. Additionally, Biden has long-term connections with many Republican senators. Some legislative measures with bipartisan consensus, such as the infrastructure bill (believed to help strengthen economic competitiveness in the U.S. and China), are expected to pass. This means that the United States will invest heavily in infrastructure (including rural broadband, and 5G), renewable energy and electric vehicles, among other things.

In addition, U.S. media sources report that Biden and McConnell may also reach consensus on a series of health issues, but not immigration reform and climate change. The bipartisan review of the role of large technology companies in Congress will also continue. Republicans believe that Facebook and Twitter are biased against conservatives, while Democrats believe that these platforms are not doing enough to prevent the spread of misinformation.

Evidently, the 2020 election further consolidated the Republican Party as the "Trump Party." Many U.S. media analysts project that, regardless of whether Trump steps down or not, Trumpism is here to stay among congressional Republicans.

Some U.S. political analysts had expected the Democrats to make a sweeping victory (as Franklin Roosevelt did in 1932 or Ronald Reagan in 1980), so that after years of partisan conflict, the U.S. would have the ability to finally move on. However, the results of this year's general election have made the U.S more divided than ever before.

*Editor’s note: This quote, accurately translated, cannot be verified.
**Editor’s note: Joe Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election on Nov. 7 and is now president-elect.