60 Years on, What Can We Learn from the Cuban Missile Crisis?

Published in Chugoku Shimbun
(Japan) on 28 October 2022
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Joseph Santiago. Edited by Wes Vanderburgh.
Sixty years ago today, the world narrowly escaped a nuclear war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in what has been called the Cuban Missile Crisis. We've all read about the event in our textbooks, the closest we ever came to nuclear devastation post-World War II.

Many are now terrified that that nightmare has returned, though, with Russian President Vladimir Putin threatening the use of nuclear weapons in his country's invasion of Ukraine, and U.S. President Joe Biden referring to this dangerous situation as "the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis." Now more than ever, we must study how it was that this emergency was avoided through diplomacy.

Here are the facts: After the revolution of 1959, Cuba joined the Eastern Bloc headed by the Soviet Union, who, looking to protect its foothold at America's underbelly, set up bases and installed intermediate-range missiles on the island. On Oct. 10, 1962, President John F. Kennedy would announce both this development and the Navy's blockade of Cuba to the world, which waited with bated breath until Oct. 28, when Moscow agreed to remove its bases, bringing the crisis to a close.

The leaders with their fingers on the big red button were Kennedy and First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev. Factors such as the aggressively expanding nuclear arms race, maintaining face in the West vs. East struggle and the political situations in both the U.S. and USSR created a perfect storm of distrust where neither side could read the other's moves. This pushed both countries, as well as the world, to the brink of mutually assured destruction.

How exactly was that situation resolved peacefully? While the Soviet Union may have compromised on the conditions that Cuba be left in peace and that American nuclear weapons be withdrawn from Turkey, this settlement was not left solely up to the leaders of both countries. For example, the role that the U.N. played in brokering this shaky compromise, with many third-party countries pushing for a dialogue, cannot be overstated. Many of them understood the tragedy laid before them at Hiroshima and Nagasaki 17 years prior, and their shared fear of nuclear annihilation helped bring this affair to a diplomatic conclusion.

Let's tie in this turn of events with Russia's situation now. It goes without saying that Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a violent transgression of international law and cannot be compared to the Cuban crisis so easily. It would make the most sense to order a ceasefire and retreat before nuclear weapons and the like are used. In turn, we shouldn't slack in trying to reach a peaceful end to this conflict.

There are many reasons to worry, though. The following year, Cuba, the U.S. and the Soviet Union signed the Limited Test Ban Treaty and set up measures like hotlines between both governments to encourage dialogue on disarmament, resolve misunderstandings and facilitate crisis management. Efforts such as these have grown fewer since the collapse of the USSR and today seem nonexistent.

Under orders from Putin, Russia's strategic nuclear forces have conducted large-scale drills. While these have been reported to be standard training, with American authorities being notified, there's no doubt that, in the shadow of heavy fighting in Ukraine, this too is an ostentatious display of Russian nuclear might.

Even if Moscow were to launch nuclear weapons, they would be tactical missiles made with the intent of being used in a regional conflict. As such, there is no indication at this time that Washington would do the same. However, it must not be overlooked that the Russian military is steadily preparing its nuclear arms, such as hypersonic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads and unmanned nuclear submarines, to use them in a conflict and not for deterrence.

The invasion of Ukraine has made apparent this fact about Russia. The collective will of the international community must make it clear that nuclear warfare will not be tolerated. We must not forget the lessons of Cuba, the lessons of when the world was on the edge of the abyss.


キューバ危機60年 収拾のプロセスに学べ

60年前のきょう、世界は米ソの全面核戦争をかろうじて免れた。キューバ危機である。第2次世界大戦後、核兵器が使われるリスクが最も高まった事態として歴史の教科書にも載る。

 ここにきて悪夢の再来を憂う声が強まってきた。ウクライナに侵攻したロシアのプーチン大統領が核兵器使用のどう喝を繰り返し、米国のバイデン大統領は「キューバ危機以来」と口にしている。今こそ外交努力で危機を回避した当時のプロセスに学んでおくべきだろう。

 一連の経緯はこうだ。1959年の革命を経て東側陣営の一員となったキューバを対米の防波堤にしたいソ連は中距離核ミサイルを持ち込み、基地を建設する。62年10月22日、その事実とキューバの海上封鎖を米国が公表して一触即発の危機に陥るが、28日になってソ連が基地撤去を表明して収拾した。

 核のボタンに指をかけて対決した指導者が米国のケネディ大統領、ソ連のフルシチョフ首相である。加速する核開発競争、東西両陣営の覇権争いの思惑とメンツ、自国の政治状況など幾つもの要素が絡み合っていた。腹の内を探り合いながら不信を募らせ、相手の出方への誤算も重なって核ミサイルを撃ち合う直前まで事態が悪化する。

 それが収拾したのはなぜか。米国がキューバを侵攻しないと約束し、ソ連に近いトルコに配備した核ミサイル撤去を表明したのを受けてソ連が譲歩した形だが、両首脳の決断だけに基づく決着ではなかったはずだ。

 ぎりぎりの妥協を仲介した国連の存在も大きかった。米ソ以外の国々も対話を後押しした。キューバ危機の17年前に起きた広島・長崎の惨禍を国際社会が理解し、核戦争への危機感を共有していたことも外交的解決に至る大きな背景ではないか。

 ロシアの現状と重ね合わせてみる。言うまでもなくウクライナ侵攻はプーチン大統領による国際法違反の暴挙であり、キューバ危機とは単純に比較はできない。核兵器うんぬんの前に停戦し、撤退するのが筋である。一方で核戦争を絶対に防ぐ外交努力は惜しむべきではない。

 気がかりなことは多い。キューバ危機翌年の63年に米ソは部分的核実験禁止条約を締結し、偶発的衝突を防ぐホットラインを開くなど核軍縮と対話、危機管理の機運が生まれた。ソ連の崩壊後も続いた流れは、ここにきて急激に細くなっている。

 そのロシアはプーチン氏が指揮し、戦略核戦力部隊の大規模な演習を行った。定例の訓練であり、米側にも通知したというが、苦戦するウクライナ情勢をにらんだ核戦力誇示の意味もあるのは疑いない。

 仮にロシアが使うとすれば局地的な戦闘を想定した戦術核とみられ、米側は現時点で使用の兆候はないと見ている。ただ、いわゆる抑止力としての核保有ではなく「使う核」の装備を、ロシア軍が着々と備えつつあるのは見過ごせない。例えば核弾頭を搭載可能な極超音速ミサイルであり、開発中の無人原子力潜水艇などである。

 ウクライナ侵攻はこうしたロシアの現状を浮き彫りにした。国際社会の総意として「核を使うな」と厳しく言い続けるべきだ。世界崩壊を前に踏みとどまったキューバ危機の教訓を置き去りにしてはならない。
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