Trump the Lame Duck
Published in L'actualité
(Canada) on 20 January 2025
by Rafael Jacob (link to original)
(Canada) on 20 January 2025
by Rafael Jacob (link to original)
Translated from
by Reg Moss.
Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Donald Trump begins his second term from a position of undeniable strength. Yet he remains a president closer to the exit than to the entrance.
Sworn in for a second term on Monday, Donald Trump joins a very exclusive club: that of presidents serving two non-consecutive terms.
Trump is only the second member. The first was Grover Cleveland who like Trump, ran in three consecutive races, 1884, 1888, and 1892, winning the first and the third — the third being the most convincing. But, unlike Trump, he won the popular vote all three times; Trump did so only in 2024, and by a small margin of 2 million out of a total of 152 million votes.
The two men are thus also the only ones to each officially “count as two presidents”: Cleveland the 22nd and 24th; Trump, the 45th and, now, 47th. This results in an exceptional situation from a point of view that is not only historic, but political, as well.
Since the ratification of the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1951 imposing of a two-term limit (consecutive or not), the second terms of presidents who have managed to be reelected have generally been difficult.
People often cite Richard Nixon’s Watergate and Ronald Reagan’s Iran-Contra scandals -- the first of political espionage, the second of arms trafficking. More recently, George W. Bush and Barack Obama both faced unprecedented difficulty accomplishing anything legislatively during their second terms with a Congress controlled by the opposing party.
In a second term of office, the president has not yet been sworn in before he faces a kind of power fatigue and is already deemed a lame duck. The contrast is often stark, where a first inauguration is embued with a general sense of novelty and change.
In this sense, Trump’s 2025 inauguration is unique. He has been the most dominant political figure in America for an entire decade. And he arrives in office not only promising change, but arrives in a stronger political position than the first time.
First, there are the elected officials. As he did in 2017, Trump begins his term with a Republican majority in the two chambers of Congress.
However, unlike 2017, major critics within the party in Washington are gone. Those like John McCain, Jeff Flake, and Bob Corker are no longer a part of the landscape. Internal dissent will inevitably emerge on certain issues, but the House and Senate caucuses have more Make America Great Again believers than they did eight years ago.
Then, there are the voters. Not only did Trump win with a clearer majority than he had in 2016 against Hillary Clinton — no one can criticize him this time for winning fewer votes than his opponent, or benefiting from Russian interference — but with public opinion more in his camp at the end of the transition period than the last time.
In Jan. 2017, a few days before he was first sworn in, CNN polled Americans to see how they thought Trump’s transition of power was handled. Only 40% approved, and 52% did not. Trump’s honeymoon was already over before he got started.
When CNN posed the same question to Americans this month, the percentages were reversed. A majority of 52% approved of the current transition led by Trump and his team, and 42% did not.
Voters also share some of the new president’s priorities, starting with the one at the top, immigration. Polls conducted by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal show that a majority of voters favor deporting all migrants who entered the United States illegally in recent years. As for those with a criminal record, nearly 80% approve of deportation.
Regardless of how elected representatives or voters in general feel, you cannot ignore the fact that the pro-Trump infrastructure is making quantum leaps with American alternative media outlets, giving the president a network of activists devoted to spreading his message.
Nevertheless, it is not all green lights for Trump.
Barring a historic upset, the Democrats are favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Until then, it is not hard to imagine there will be a number of fault lines forming inside Trump’s coalition. There are already tensions between his allies in the tech world and those from the far-right on the issue of visas for skilled tech workers.
And, of course, as always, there is the unimaginable.
Two months after President Cleveland took office a second time in May 1893, there was panic at the New York Stock Exchange leading to the worst economic and financial crisis of the 19th century. The following year, in 1894, Cleveland’s Democratic Party lost 105 congressional seats, which was the equivalent of about half his caucus. Two years later, he was ousted from the White House, and he would not return for two decades.
Trump begins (again) at the top. The question is, how long will he stay there?
Sworn in for a second term on Monday, Donald Trump joins a very exclusive club: that of presidents serving two non-consecutive terms.
Trump is only the second member. The first was Grover Cleveland who like Trump, ran in three consecutive races, 1884, 1888, and 1892, winning the first and the third — the third being the most convincing. But, unlike Trump, he won the popular vote all three times; Trump did so only in 2024, and by a small margin of 2 million out of a total of 152 million votes.
The two men are thus also the only ones to each officially “count as two presidents”: Cleveland the 22nd and 24th; Trump, the 45th and, now, 47th. This results in an exceptional situation from a point of view that is not only historic, but political, as well.
Since the ratification of the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1951 imposing of a two-term limit (consecutive or not), the second terms of presidents who have managed to be reelected have generally been difficult.
People often cite Richard Nixon’s Watergate and Ronald Reagan’s Iran-Contra scandals -- the first of political espionage, the second of arms trafficking. More recently, George W. Bush and Barack Obama both faced unprecedented difficulty accomplishing anything legislatively during their second terms with a Congress controlled by the opposing party.
In a second term of office, the president has not yet been sworn in before he faces a kind of power fatigue and is already deemed a lame duck. The contrast is often stark, where a first inauguration is embued with a general sense of novelty and change.
In this sense, Trump’s 2025 inauguration is unique. He has been the most dominant political figure in America for an entire decade. And he arrives in office not only promising change, but arrives in a stronger political position than the first time.
First, there are the elected officials. As he did in 2017, Trump begins his term with a Republican majority in the two chambers of Congress.
However, unlike 2017, major critics within the party in Washington are gone. Those like John McCain, Jeff Flake, and Bob Corker are no longer a part of the landscape. Internal dissent will inevitably emerge on certain issues, but the House and Senate caucuses have more Make America Great Again believers than they did eight years ago.
Then, there are the voters. Not only did Trump win with a clearer majority than he had in 2016 against Hillary Clinton — no one can criticize him this time for winning fewer votes than his opponent, or benefiting from Russian interference — but with public opinion more in his camp at the end of the transition period than the last time.
In Jan. 2017, a few days before he was first sworn in, CNN polled Americans to see how they thought Trump’s transition of power was handled. Only 40% approved, and 52% did not. Trump’s honeymoon was already over before he got started.
When CNN posed the same question to Americans this month, the percentages were reversed. A majority of 52% approved of the current transition led by Trump and his team, and 42% did not.
Voters also share some of the new president’s priorities, starting with the one at the top, immigration. Polls conducted by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal show that a majority of voters favor deporting all migrants who entered the United States illegally in recent years. As for those with a criminal record, nearly 80% approve of deportation.
Regardless of how elected representatives or voters in general feel, you cannot ignore the fact that the pro-Trump infrastructure is making quantum leaps with American alternative media outlets, giving the president a network of activists devoted to spreading his message.
Nevertheless, it is not all green lights for Trump.
Barring a historic upset, the Democrats are favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Until then, it is not hard to imagine there will be a number of fault lines forming inside Trump’s coalition. There are already tensions between his allies in the tech world and those from the far-right on the issue of visas for skilled tech workers.
And, of course, as always, there is the unimaginable.
Two months after President Cleveland took office a second time in May 1893, there was panic at the New York Stock Exchange leading to the worst economic and financial crisis of the 19th century. The following year, in 1894, Cleveland’s Democratic Party lost 105 congressional seats, which was the equivalent of about half his caucus. Two years later, he was ousted from the White House, and he would not return for two decades.
Trump begins (again) at the top. The question is, how long will he stay there?
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