Is the United States Still a Democracy?

Published in The United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 3 March 2025
by Tang Shao-cheng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Matthew McKay. Edited by Patricia Simoni.

 

 

President Donald Trump is stirring up trouble both at home and abroad, but is he doing so to bring order out of chaos? Or to create chaos out of order? He is also intent on turning the United States into a corporation, not only collecting debts from Ukraine but putting the “con” in “economy” and the “me” in “America First” by issuing certain people “gold card” visas. Even so, his greater concern is probably with securing his reelection. After all, both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have amended their constitutions to extend their terms in office. Can Trump still be seen as a strongman if he is unable to do the same?

First of all, Trump is a felon, which is already shocking enough and would break with tradition in many countries — yet his supporters remain unfazed. But will he end up in jail after leaving office? The prospect has undoubtedly fueled his desire for reelection, pushing him to take desperate measures. Under the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, a president cannot be reelected beyond a second term, and while the threshold for amending the Constitution is a high one, it would not be an impossible scenario if Republicans secure a landslide victory in the 2026 midterm elections.

Trump could also declare a state of emergency to suspend the election and extend his power, citing reasons such as national security, war or civil unrest. As far as stirring up conflict abroad is concerned, there are many hot spots around the world that could lend themselves to Trump’s designs, and Taiwan would be no exception. When the time comes, much will depend on the position taken by military leadership; thus,Trump’s recent purge of top U.S. military officials is probably linked.

As for the issue of civil war in the U.S., this has actually been brewing for some time. As early as 2021, Barbara F. Walter, a CIA consultant specializing in political unrest and terrorism and a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, warned that American society was severely divided and increasingly on the road to domestic warfare; her most recent book, “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them” came out in early 2022. With Trump inciting populism, will the country really go down that path?

Additionally, Trump has been cracking down on press freedoms. Recently, the White House barred media outlets including the Associated Press and Reuters from covering cabinet meetings and traveling on Air Force One because they refused to accept Trump’s renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. The Associated Press filed a lawsuit in response, but the case did not develop as it had hoped when a federal judge rejected the request to restore its White House press access.

What is more, The Washington Post, owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, recently announced that its opinion section would no longer carry articles with views opposed to free markets and "personal liberties.” The decision has raised questions about freedom of the press, with its potential for interfering with media independence and freedom of expression.

The U.S. Supreme Court is composed of six conservative and three liberal justices — clearly the most conservative majority since the 20th century — so when cases in the U.S. are appealed to the highest court in the land, it can only be beneficial to Trump. But it could also trigger nationwide protests and increased unrest. The stakes are extremely high, but for Trump, nothing seems to be impossible.

It can be seen that Trump has consolidated power across the three branches of government, and his actions are so controversial that information has already emerged concerning plots to assassinate both him and Elon Musk. Such a political culture is a stark departure from the U.S. of the past and the norms of typical democratic countries.


美國還是民主國家?

2025-03-03 07:00 聯合報/ 湯紹成/亞太綜合研究院院長

川普總統攪動美國內外,是撥亂反正?還是撥正反亂?川普還有意將美國變成一家公司,不但向烏克蘭討債,還發行金卡滿足一些人的美夢。雖然如此,川普更掛心的問題,想必還是連任。尤其習近平與普亭都已修憲延長任期,川普若做不到,還能算是強人?

首先,川普是重刑犯,這就已經令人驚詫,打破許多國家的傳統,但川普的選民也不以為意,但卸任後是否坐牢?必定也激發了川普連任的企求,因而必須鋌而走險。依照美國憲法修正案第22條規定,總統不得連任超過兩屆,而修憲門檻很高,除非2026年期中選舉,共和黨獲得輾壓式的勝利,但也並非不可能。

此外,川普還可宣布國家進入緊急狀態,來停止選舉延長權力,原因包括國家安全、戰爭或內亂。以對外挑起戰爭而言,全球不少熱點地區,都可以是川普的選項,其中台灣也不會被排除在外。屆時還要看軍方高層態度,但日前川普才清洗了美軍高官,應是與此有關。

在美國內戰的問題方面,其實已醞釀多時。早在2021年,專門研究政治動亂與恐怖主義的CIA顧問,美國加州大學聖地牙哥分校(UCSD)政治學教授華特爾(Barbara F. Walter)就提出警告,美國社會嚴重撕裂,正日益走上內戰之路,並在2022年初出版新書「How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them」。若川普煽動民粹,是否真的走上此路?

此外,川普還限制新聞自由。最近白宮阻止美聯社(AP)和路透社(Reuters)等媒體進場採訪內閣會議,與不得搭乘空軍一號進行採訪,因為他們不接受川普將墨西哥灣改為美國灣。美聯社因此向法院提告,但事件發展並未如美聯社所願,恢復白宮採訪權的要求也遭到聯邦法官駁回。

還有,由亞馬遜創辦人貝佐斯所屬的《華盛頓郵報》最近宣布,該報的評論版將不再發表反對「個人自由和自由市場」觀點的文章。這一決定引發了對新聞自由的質疑,因為這可能會干擾媒體的獨立性和言論自由。

再者,大法官又是由6位保守派與3位自由派組成,這是自20世紀以來最明顯的保守派多數局面。若美國內部的紛爭,要上訴到美國最高的聯邦法院,將對川普十分有利。而這種行動可能會引發全國性抗議甚至動盪加劇,風險極高,但對川普而言,好似沒有甚麼不可能。

可見,川普三權歸一,行為又極具爭議,密謀暗殺總統及馬斯克的訊息已出現。如此的政治文化,確實已與以往的美國,以及一般民主國家的格局甚遠。
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