The U.S. Debt Ceiling: Compromise to Satisfy Responsibility for the World

Published in Asahi
(Japan) on 31 July 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Taira Ishikura. Edited by Katerina Kobylka.
Will the United States really default on its debt?

Trust in the U.S. government — the most important constituent of the global economy — is under threat due to a critical division in national politics. The debt has reached the maximum limit of $14.3 trillion, and having Congress approve a new ceiling has become more and more difficult.

On Aug. 2, the government will run out of cash. If the issuance of additional debt is not approved, leading to a default or downgrading of the credit rating, “shock waves through the entire global financial system” would be inevitably created, said Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. Congress must make necessary compromises immediately.

The U.S. faces an unprecedented amount of accumulated debt. The new debt ceiling is being discussed along with financial restructuring policies for the next 10 years.

However, Congress, divided after the midterm election last fall — with Republicans controlling the House and Democrats controlling the Senate — has made the negotiations difficult.

An agreement was almost reached on July 21 but failed due to differences over whether or not to raise taxes and amid political maneuvering for next year's presidential election. The situation worsened after each party submitted its own plan.

Little difference can be found between the two parties with regard to cuts. What separates them is that the Democrats’ plan would allow a $2.4 trillion increase in the ceiling, covering most of President Obama’s remaining term, while Republicans seek a two-step process, which temporarily raises the limit by $900 billion until a renegotiation at the end of the year. Looking toward the presidential election, the GOP would probably use a rehash of the debt ceiling issue to its political advantage.

The biggest obstacle is the influence of the tea party within the Republican Party, which opposes raising the debt limit with the slogan of “smaller government.” About 60 tea party members currently exist among Republicans in the House, and the GOP would lose the majority without them. The fact that the chair of the Tea Party Caucus leads in the race for the Republican presidential nomination is another reason for such an uncompromising stance.

Financial markets have grown impatient, resulting in selling on the New York stock market and lowering the value of the dollar. Japanese currency has reached a postwar high of 76-77 yen to the dollar. It is important for the U.S. Congress to recall the worst-ever stock plunge in 2008, led by its rejection of a bill dealing with Lehman Brother’s fall.

It does make sense to emphasize taxpayers’ rationale against loose fiscal management. Yet, jeopardizing the world economy by doing so would be putting the cart before the horse.

As crises in Europe demonstrate, confidence in government debts is wavering globally. Congress should grow out of this gambling, petty political game immediately and regain its desired balance and sense of good.


米債務問題―妥協こそ世界への責任

 米国債は債務不履行(デフォルト)に陥るのか。

 世界経済の要である米政府の信用が、国内の深刻な政治対立で危機に直面している。米政府の債務が14兆2940億ドルの上限いっぱいになり、議会に引き上げを認めてもらう問題がこじれにこじれているのだ。

 政府の資金繰りが限界を迎えるのは8月2日。新たな借金ができずに、米国債がデフォルトや格下げとなれば「世界の金融システムへの衝撃」(バーナンキ米連邦準備制度理事会議長)は避けられない。米議会は早急に妥協する必要がある。

 米国は史上最悪の累積赤字を抱え、債務上限の引き上げは向こう10年間の財政再建策とセットで議論されている。

 だが、昨秋の中間選挙の結果、上院で与党の民主党が、下院で野党共和党が、それぞれ多数を握る「ねじれ」構造となったことで協議が難航している。

 今月21日には赤字3兆ドル削減で合意寸前までいったが、増税の是非や来年の大統領選をにらんだ駆け引きもあって決裂。その後、上院民主党と下院共和党で別々の案をまとめるなど、状況は一段と混迷している。

 赤字削減では両案に大差はない。違いは、民主党案がオバマ大統領の任期をほぼカバーする2.4兆ドルの上限引き上げを認めるのに対し、共和党は年内分の9千億ドルを引き上げ、年明けに再協議をする「二段構え」である点だ。大統領選挙に向け、上限問題を再び政治的な駆け引き材料に使うもくろみなのだ。

 妥協への最大の障害は、「小さな政府」を旗印に、共和党内で上限引き上げに反対する茶会(ティーパーティー)の勢力だ。下院共和党の茶会議員連盟は約60人おり、離反すれば共和党は過半数が取れない。議員連盟の会長が大統領選の有力候補に浮上していることも、強硬路線の背景にある。

 金融市場はしびれを切らし、ニューヨーク株の下落、ドル安など米国売りが進み始めている。円相場は1ドル=76円台に突入し、戦後最高値寸前まで上昇している。米議会は2008年にリーマン危機の対策法案を否決し、史上最大の株価暴落を招いたことを思い起こすべきだ。

 放漫な財政に対して納税者の論理を叫ぶことは大事だろう。しかし、それが世界経済を窮地に追いやるなら本末転倒だ。

 欧州の危機が象徴するように、政府債務への信用は世界的に動揺しつつある。米議会は肝試しまがいの狭量な政争から早く脱し、良識とバランス感覚を取り戻してほしい。
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