Obama Maintains the Support of Hispanic Voters

According to a survey published today by TV channel Univisión and Latino Decisions, Obama has taken the lead over the would-be Republican candidates. It remains a year until the elections are held, and both the economy and unemployment have become the decisive issues for the campaign, whereas immigration has been pushed into the background. Republican candidates face serious difficulties in attracting Hispanic voters.

The president has a considerable lead compared to Herman Cain: 66 percent in comparison to the 22 percent that support the Republican candidate and current leader in the Republican surveys. Likewise, Obama has 67 percent of support compared to Mitt Romney’s 24 percent, and 68 percent compared to Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s 21 percent.

Obama, a candidate for re-election with a view to these increasingly close elections, maintains the support of Hispanic voters, a group of people that will undoubtedly play a decisive role in November 2012. According to data by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), which is one of the biggest Latin organizations in the country, 6.6 million Hispanics voted in 2008. However, this figure will reach 12.2 million in 2012. Back then, Obama obtained the support of more than two-thirds of Hispanic voters. Nonetheless, the absence of any immigration reform, as well as the recession in economy, has jeopardized that support.

The fear of the Democrats coincides with the increase in concern about the economic recovery, but Hispanics, more than the rest of the population, support the president’s work. According to data by Latino Decisions, 66 percent of Hispanics support Obama’s management, whereas 29 percent disapprove. With regard to the general population, the percentages are 50 percent and 37 percent, respectively.

On the one hand, the data by Latino Decisions revealed that 67 percent of Hispanics blame former President George W. Bush for the current economic situation, in comparison with 50 percent of the general population. On the other hand, only 19 percent of Hispanics blame Obama for it, compared to a third of the general population.

Even if immigration is pushed into the background, it will remain a decisive factor, and the vote will be conditioned by it. One of the questions that appeared the survey was: Are you going to elect a candidate you prefer because of his economic plan, even though he has stated that immigrants are a threat to the United States and undocumented people should never be granted amnesty? 54 percent of those polled declared that they would be less willing to support that candidate, unlike 14 percent that answered otherwise.

The toughness of immigration laws driven by Republican lawmakers in some states, just like the statements issued by some of the candidates for the 2012 elections, have distanced Hispanic voters from the Republican Party. The strategy worked during the legislative elections in 2010, when some candidates such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio or Susana Martínez, governor of New Mexico, became the Hispanic faces of the Republican Party. However, recent measures such as Alabama’s immigration law complicate the options for next year. For instance, with regard to Arizona’s immigration law, voters of this state have already given their opinion. In the local elections held yesterday, citizens forced Senator Russell Pearce, the main driving force behind the immigration law passed in April 2010, to give up his position.

According to Latino Decisions, 53 percent of those polled identify with Democrats when they were asked about their stance on the subject of immigration, whereas only 15 percent identify with Republicans. However, none of these figures should reassure the White House: 53 percent of Hispanics were less enthusiastic with Obama as a candidate, compared to what they thought in 2008. On the contrary, 29 percent are more excited about Obama.