Build Relations with the US Presidential Candidates!

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 20 April 2015
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Hirotoshi Kimura. Edited by Nicholas Eckart.
A few hats have already been tossed in the ring for next year’s presidential election. Among them, of course, is that of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s odds-on favorite. The election’s outcome bears upon the future trajectory of our relations with the U.S., which makes it a matter of strategic importance for our government to get an in with each of the candidates beforehand, in preparation for any eventuality.

The whole process is conducted in two phases: first, a primary, where the two major parties each choose their nominee, and then a general election to choose the final victor. With still a little over a year before the primary, the U.S. political sphere is already heating up.

Mrs. Clinton’s impeccable resume is illuminated with her service as a first lady, a senator and as the nation’s top diplomat. What’s more, she polls higher than other potential rivals. No less important, as a secretary of state she also spearheaded the “rebalancing” or “pivot” of Euro-Middle East-centric U.S. foreign policy to Asia, which definitely puts her in our good graces.

However, some quarters of her party are pushing the anti-poverty Sen. Elizabeth Warren to run against her. If the Clinton camp veers to the left to avoid losing liberal votes to Mrs. Warren and stakes out a protectionist platform, that would cast a murky pall of uncertainty over the future of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

With its main focus on recapturing the White House, the Republican primary is expected to revolve around former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (whose father and brother are both former presidents). A crop of tea party senators, namely Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio, have also declared their runs. The Republicans’ success hinges upon whether they can unite around one candidate in the general election.

When the Obama administration put out a statement saying it was “disappointed” with Shinzo Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, Abe’s closest aides let out a grumble, saying, “Republican administrations never tripped us up like this.”

You can count within the ranks of the GOP more than a few anti-China members, but all factions are well aware that it is not conducive to U.S. interests to unnecessarily nettle East Asia.

Either way, we need to be fully prepared for whoever wins the race. Even seemingly flash-in-the-pan candidates will, often as not, come up through the ranks to vice president or secretary of some department. Our already fairly deep connection to Mrs. Clinton frees us to focus more on cultivating a relationship with other camps.

Traditionally, our diplomacy puts a premium on the administrative branch, such as the State Department, with scant attention to Congress. What did our government do when Obama was still a junior senator? It is to be hoped that our government will, based on lessons from last time, deftly navigate the waters of the 2016 presidential election.


来年の米大統領選への出馬表明が相次いでいる。民主党の本命とされるヒラリー・クリントン前国務長官も名乗りをあげた。選挙結果は日米関係の行方に影響する。誰が大統領になっても大丈夫なように、日本政府は各陣営に幅広い人脈を築いておくことが大事だ。

 選挙戦は二大政党が候補を絞り込む予備選、そこで選ばれた指名候補が雌雄を決する本選挙の2段階で戦う。予備選の開始までまだ1年近くあるが、米政界は早くも活気づいている。

 クリントン氏は大統領夫人、上院議員、閣僚を務め、申し分のない経歴である。米メディアの世論調査で一歩先行する。国務長官として、欧州や中東に向きがちだった米外交の視点をアジアに転じさせる「リバランス」を主導した。日本には心強い存在だ。

 ただ、党内には貧困層救済に力点を置くエリザベス・ウォーレン上院議員を推す声もある。リベラル派の支持を奪われまいとクリントン陣営が左傾化し、保護貿易の色彩の濃い公約を打ち出せば、環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)などの先行きは不透明になる。

 ホワイトハウス奪回を目指す共和党の予備選は、父と兄が大統領経験者のジェブ・ブッシュ元フロリダ州知事を軸に展開しそうだ。「茶会」と名乗る極端に「小さな政府」を志向する勢力からはテッド・クルーズ、ランド・ポール、マルコ・ルビオ各上院議員が立候補した。本選挙で挙党一致体制を築けるかどうかが焦点だ。

 オバマ政権が安倍晋三首相の靖国神社参拝への「失望」を表明した際、首相側近から「共和党政権のときはこんな揚げ足をとったことはなかった」との発言が出た。

 共和党に対中強硬派が多いのは事実だが、東アジアに無用な波風が立つのは米国の国益にならないとの認識は党派を問わない。

 いずれにせよ、誰が勝ってもよい備えをする必要がある。いまは泡沫(ほうまつ)候補でも、のちに副大統領や閣僚に就くことは珍しくない。クリントン氏とはこれまでの蓄積がそれなりにあるとすれば、なおさらいろいろな陣営とつきあう余力があるはずだ。

 日本外交は伝統的に国務省など行政府との関係を重視し、米議会への働きかけが手薄である。上院議員時代のオバマ氏とどういう接触をしていたのか。その反省を踏まえ、次期大統領選に対応してもらいたい。
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