US Cannot Abandon Taiwan Card, but It Is Also Worried about Independence Causing Chaos

On Dec. 16, Taiwan People's Party Chairman Ko Wen-je said in a speech at Yangming Park in Taoyuan City that Taiwan should be a beautiful island, not a place of "war and danger,” and that it should be a bridge for communication between China and the United States, not a chess piece.

Ko’s words expressed the good wishes of the Taiwanese people; however, Taiwan’s reality remains war and danger as it continues to be a chess piece the U.S. uses to contain mainland China. This is Taiwan's tragedy. If the political parties advocating for "Taiwan independence" continue to be in power, Taiwan's development may face more uncertainty, which is what many Taiwanese people are worried about. Even the United States is worried about Taiwan independence causing chaos.

There is no doubt that the deadlock in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan’s perilous situation are both closely related to the United States. America's involvement and intervention in the Taiwan issue is the most important and most sensitive issue in Chinese-U.S. relations, as well as an important part of the chess game between China and the United States. Because of this, the United States will never give up the "Taiwan card." On the contrary, it will continue to cling to the chess piece that is Taiwan and may even continue to escalate its interest in the region.

However, at this stage, under the influence of international politics and the current trajectory of China-U.S. relations, the United States does not want Taiwan to cause additional chaos and is worried that Lai Ching-te's victory may have unintended consequences. Therefore, according to Professor Huang Kuibo of the Department of Foreign Affairs at National Chengchi University, assuming a difficult 2024 election, we cannot rule out the possibility that Lai will take a risk during the final stage of the campaign and play the "anti-China" card, believing that the Biden administration will be paying close attention to everything Lai says and does with respect to Taiwan independence, at least until the U.S. presidential election takes place.

U.S. officials have said repeatedly that they do not support Taiwan independence, directing this statement not only at mainland China but at Taiwan. Bonnie Glaser and three other heavyweight American sholars recently wrote a joint article calling on the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai to freeze the Taiwan Independence Party platform, demonstrating that many people in the United States are aware of the actual harm and potential chaos that Taiwan's independence could cause.