Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? The Rust Belt Will Decide the Outcome
Published in Rzeczpospolita
(Poland) on 1 November 2024
by Jędrzej Bielecki (link to original)
(Poland) on 1 November 2024
by Jędrzej Bielecki (link to original)
Translated from
by Danuta Kowalska.
Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Seven Midwestern states seek a way out of a dramatic economic collapse. The outcome of Tuesday's election in the U.S. will depend on who is entrusted with this task.
Travel brochures and marketing videos don't tell the whole truth. Beautiful skyscrapers and breathtaking views of Lake Michigan — but that is not everything. Over the past half century, Chicago has lost a fifth of its population. Relatively speaking, however, that isn’t much; Cleveland has lost half its population and Detroit has lost 60% over the last 50 years.
What happened? Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, New York and Pennsylvania were the powers of the first half of the 20th century. They relied on coal mining, metallurgy and industry — primarily automotive. The first signs of collapse came in the 1970s. Competition emerged, initially from Japan and later from China. At the same time, trade unions negotiated very favorable wage increases in 1973, thus killing the competitiveness of American industry.
Today, the Rust Belt is just a shadow of its former glory. The whole U.S., once the largest steel producer in the world, has fallen to fourth place. While China produced 1 billion tons of this raw material last year, the U.S. produced only a paltry 81 million tons.
The Candidate Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Vote For Wins the White House
This has caused entire families who worked in the same factories for generations to lose their livelihoods, giving rise to great frustration.
Ohio and Indiana, looking for a way out of this difficult situation, remained loyal to the Republicans; New York and Illinois, to the Democrats. But the other Rust Belt states are swing states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania voted for Donald Trump and he won the White House. Yet four years later, the same three states cast their votes for Biden, giving him a pass to the most important post in the world. What will happen this year?
At the beginning of this century, the entire Rust Belt had 140 electoral votes. Today, due to the demographic collapse, this number has fallen to 119. The three states in question have 44 votes (out of 538). But even that is enough to determine the outcome of the election, so evenly matched is the battle this year.
Will Trump Lose in Pennsylvania Because of a Comedian?
That's why Trump and Kamala Harris have visited the Rust Belt frequently on the campaign trail. To attract voters to their side, they also have changed their views. For example, Harris in 2020: She was opposed to fracking, the extraction of gas and oil with environmentally harmful hydraulic drilling. But because many in Pennsylvania see this as the resurgence of industry, the Democratic nominee has changed her mind.
Trump, on the other hand, may well have lost ground during a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, after hosting a comedian who called Puerto Rico a floating pile of garbage. Half of the 500,000 Latinos living in Pennsylvania are Puerto Rican.
Both candidates have also become vocal advocates of protectionism. They opposed the takeover of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel because it holds bad associations in the state.
Another problem is the distribution of votes. The big cities of the Rust Belt tend to vote for Democrats; small towns and rural areas tend to vote for Republicans.
As a result, this battle is so complex and tight that only on Wednesday morning will we know whom Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin voted for. And who has won the White House.
Travel brochures and marketing videos don't tell the whole truth. Beautiful skyscrapers and breathtaking views of Lake Michigan — but that is not everything. Over the past half century, Chicago has lost a fifth of its population. Relatively speaking, however, that isn’t much; Cleveland has lost half its population and Detroit has lost 60% over the last 50 years.
What happened? Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, New York and Pennsylvania were the powers of the first half of the 20th century. They relied on coal mining, metallurgy and industry — primarily automotive. The first signs of collapse came in the 1970s. Competition emerged, initially from Japan and later from China. At the same time, trade unions negotiated very favorable wage increases in 1973, thus killing the competitiveness of American industry.
Today, the Rust Belt is just a shadow of its former glory. The whole U.S., once the largest steel producer in the world, has fallen to fourth place. While China produced 1 billion tons of this raw material last year, the U.S. produced only a paltry 81 million tons.
The Candidate Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Vote For Wins the White House
This has caused entire families who worked in the same factories for generations to lose their livelihoods, giving rise to great frustration.
Ohio and Indiana, looking for a way out of this difficult situation, remained loyal to the Republicans; New York and Illinois, to the Democrats. But the other Rust Belt states are swing states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania voted for Donald Trump and he won the White House. Yet four years later, the same three states cast their votes for Biden, giving him a pass to the most important post in the world. What will happen this year?
At the beginning of this century, the entire Rust Belt had 140 electoral votes. Today, due to the demographic collapse, this number has fallen to 119. The three states in question have 44 votes (out of 538). But even that is enough to determine the outcome of the election, so evenly matched is the battle this year.
Will Trump Lose in Pennsylvania Because of a Comedian?
That's why Trump and Kamala Harris have visited the Rust Belt frequently on the campaign trail. To attract voters to their side, they also have changed their views. For example, Harris in 2020: She was opposed to fracking, the extraction of gas and oil with environmentally harmful hydraulic drilling. But because many in Pennsylvania see this as the resurgence of industry, the Democratic nominee has changed her mind.
Trump, on the other hand, may well have lost ground during a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, after hosting a comedian who called Puerto Rico a floating pile of garbage. Half of the 500,000 Latinos living in Pennsylvania are Puerto Rican.
Both candidates have also become vocal advocates of protectionism. They opposed the takeover of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel because it holds bad associations in the state.
Another problem is the distribution of votes. The big cities of the Rust Belt tend to vote for Democrats; small towns and rural areas tend to vote for Republicans.
As a result, this battle is so complex and tight that only on Wednesday morning will we know whom Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin voted for. And who has won the White House.
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