After Cairo, Will the U.S. Abandon Jerusalem?

Cessation of the military aid, cancellation of the guarantees and political isolation: this is the reality Israel is going to encounter the day the United States decides to turn its back on her.

This week, the United States has let down her old ally Hosni Mubarak. The long years of established relations ended when the mobs were out on Cairo streets. The Egyptian president was probably counting on a back-up – but instead he faced the U.S. avoiding him both before and afterward, an explicit alienation. When a thing like that happens to such a close and historical ally, who has enjoyed a military assistance from the United States for many years, it’s no wonder that in Israel there already are those thinking about the day when it might happen to us, too.

“From time to time, the United States runs a reassessment of its foreign policy,” says Professor Yossi Shain, head of the Hartog School of Government and Policy at Tel Aviv University and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University in Washington. “After the Six-Day War, France had turned her back on us – and we had to quickly find a substitute for the French weaponry. This can definitely happen with the Americans in certain areas. President Eisenhower, for example, had already determined that Israel was not an asset, and the first President Bush had re-examined the issue of the guarantees. If Israel no longer serves American interests, the United States may change its attitude, and this would be dangerous for us.”

How Dangerous?

“We won’t collapse immediately, but there will be a crash, and our condition will be very, very problematic. Should the United States not send arms, we’ll be in a troublesome situation in terms of protecting ourselves. The American weapons had saved us from breakdown in the Yom Kippur War. Should there be no American assistance, unemployment will grow, the price of fuel will get much higher, personal and national security will be harmed (because the Arab countries will understand that we don’t have a backup and may assault us) and rockets are likely to fall onto Israel, just like they did during the Gulf War. We would also suffer from political isolation because the United States provides legitimacy for us – and when it starts passing UN resolutions against us, we’re about to become an isolated country. For the moment, we’re not there yet, but we should certainly keep a finger on the pulse.”

$2.55 Billion

The close connection between Israel and the United States has its origin in the 1960s, with President Kennedy’s declaration in December 1962 that the U.S. has a special relationship with Israel in the Middle East. At that point, the United States also started arms sales to Israel. In May 1964, the first Israeli prime minister was invited to visit in the White House, and the Yom Kippur War saw a strengthening of ties when the United States delivered the airlift to Israel. In September 1975, President Gerald Ford promised that the United States would unfailingly keep supplying arms to Israel and maintain its qualitative edge.

Periods of stress have not undermined the basis of this strong bond. In March 1980, the United States supported the UN resolution to apply the Fourth Geneva Convention to the territories, including East Jerusalem — although it backed off on that in the end. Bombing of the Iraqi reactor, operation Peace for Galilee, the slaughter in Sabra and Shatila, the Jonathan Pollard affair, Israeli arms sales to China in 2000, Israel’s announcement last year that it’s going to build over a thousand housing units in Jerusalem and U.S. support in the U.N. on the denuclearization of the Middle East — all of these have broken the balance of the special relationship but haven’t affected American aid.

The United States gives Israel $2.55 billion annually as aid, almost all of it directed toward military spending. It has also given Israel guarantees totaling $9 billion which enable the country to borrow money in the world at terms similar to those of the United States. Trade relations between Israel and the United States are tight. Last year, Israel exported $11.6 billion worth of goods to the United States. Next in line is the United Kingdom, importing $2 billion of goods from Israel. Last year, American exports to Israel reached $5.9 billion, and China was in second place, exporting $4.7 billion.

At the moment, the United States’ disassociation from its longtime ally Mubarak raises the question whether it might turn its back on Israel too, despite a friendship that has lasted many years. Shabtai Shavit, former Mossad Chief, thinks that such a scenario is possible. “The direction the United States is going in may affect its relations with Israel, and not in a good way,” he says. “The Obama administration is taking a path that could bring the U.S. back to the era of isolationism. The rise of China’s strength is also likely to make the United States progress towards convergence. All of this will not have a good influence on relations with Israel.”

A Political Threat

Professor Abraham Ben-Zvi, from Haifa University, whose book “From Truman to Obama: The Rise and Early Decline of American - Israeli Relations” was published a few weeks ago, is also warning against the pessimistic scenario. “There are significant pockets of erosion, mainly in the midst of the United States Jewry,” he says. “The cold and unsentimental administration, along with the pockets of abandonment and indifference, will leave Israel vulnerable to the turret. We haven’t reached this phase yet, but this might happen.”

Could the situation come to estrangement, just as in Egypt currently?

“I don’t believe the United States will shake Israel off, but they apt to start playing a sophisticated game of ‘divide and rule,’ mobilize forces of criticism against Israel and disconnect from the political commitment. The current administration has already opened some of the black boxes when it brought up for discussion the issue of the nuclear ambiguity – a thing that had been taboo until now. This is a cold administration that might create a severe picture concerning us.”

Is the aid to Israel likely to be affected as well?

“It’s unlikely that all the aid will be gone, because the Congress is still zealous in its support for Israel. There won’t be a death blow, but rather a problem with the legitimacy of Israel. There won’t be a physical threat for us or an apocalypse, but rather a political threat. They might impose on us both a peace agreement that wouldn’t be acceptable to Israel, which would mean a growing isolation of Israel in the world, and also denuclearization of the Middle East. Israel will find itself in a corner with no room to maneuver – and that would pose a serious problem for us.”

Symptoms of the Chill

Can we already discern signs that herald the cooling of relations between the United States and its ally Israel? Alon Pinkas, Israel’s former Consul General in New York, thinks so. According to him, relations are still far from going downhill, but the hints of a metamorphosis are already emerging. Indeed, he thinks that the current American administration won’t proclaim a revision in its position toward Israel, but decide to turn deaf ear on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is definitely within its abilities.

“The American administration can’t suffer Netanyahu, and his credibility in Washington is close to zero – nevertheless, it doesn’t mean that this can’t be changed. Should Obama carry on his attitude to Netanyahu, he will create a situation where Netanyahu’s status would be hurt so much that he’ll be forced to leave. President George H.W. Bush’s administration did it to Yitzhak Shamir. Also, in 1999, the U.S. treated Netanyahu in such a way that Ehud Barak rose in the elections. They won’t answer phone calls and there will be no meetings between presidents until the Israeli public finally understands that the prime minister is having such troubled relations with the United States and therefore does not elect him. There is, however, no way that Obama will declare in a speech about changing the basic position of the administration towards Israel.”

Could relations ever get colder?

”There will be a chilling, but it’ll take time. The support for Israel is getting worn down because of demographic changes in the United States. Today, America is younger and taking less interest in foreign policy matters. The weight of Israel in the total of the foreign relations has been steadily decreasing since the dissolution of the Soviet Union; American generals, such as General David Petraeus, are not hesitating to state that U.S. interests in the Middle East are negatively affected in the absence of the political process between Israel and the Arab world. Congress is getting staffed with people who do not have a moral political obligation to Israel – while Israel does not soften the process because it’s not listening consistently to the requests of the United States to freeze building in the settlements.”

Where are we going to be when all this happens?

“Should we still be in control of the territories, we’ll be trouble because under such circumstances we need the American alliance in votes at the UN and need American weapons to maintain our qualitative advantage – which means that Israel has the right of way concerning its access to military systems. The moment this gets hurt, we’ll be in trouble, but it won’t happen tomorrow morning. For the time being, that’s a fictional scenario. Such changes in foreign policy take years and their marks will be clear: a considerable vote in the Security Council not vetoed by the United States, or a proposal of anti-Israel resolution joined by the United States. In the meantime, I can watch them abstaining – but not participating, which means that early symptoms are already apparent.”

A Red Light

As of today, there are still many Americans who side with Israel, and their voice is still well-heard in the governmental institutions – and, so far, that has made turning away from it difficult for the administration. “Israel has a large camp of supporters among both fundamentalist Christians and the Jews,” says Professor Itamar Rabinovich, Israel’s former ambassador to the United States, and he reminds us that this kind of support has not stopped past administrations from entering a confrontation with the Israeli governments in office. “In 1992, the administration of George Bush Sr. and James Baker made it clear that they prefer Yitzhak Rabin over Yitzhak Shamir; they didn’t authorize the guarantee money, and it was clear that this had influenced the elections in Israel.

“This is partially happening today with Netanyahu. Several months ago, in the imbroglio of the construction in Jerusalem, Hillary Clinton rebuked him for 40 whole minutes, and President Obama was not treating him cordially during his visit in Washington. Afterward, they bothered to correct the impression, and the crisis was kept to a minimum. The administration does not announce that it loathes the prime minister, but I can see a situation when the American administration signals that one or another premier is not okay with them.”

Is alienation from Israel in general, and not from a particular prime minister, possible?

“This isn’t an incredibly fictional scenario. The influence of the Jewish community in the United States goes down. The young Jewish generation is not so attached to Israel. The influence of Hispanics and blacks goes up and will be higher. I can definitely envision a gradual distancing in two more decades. In such a situation, should the conflict in the Middle East continue, we’ll live worse lives and grow weaker politically in a fatal way. In diverse parts of the world, like Eastern Europe, Africa and South America, our standing is good thanks to American support.”

An Agreement Has to be Reached

With advocates or without them – one should read the American map of interests. In this aspect, says Uri Savir, former general manager of the Ministry of Foreign affairs, the events in Egypt should turn on a red light in Israel. “In the first place, the United States is developing its own interests and only after that will it take care of the interests of the others,” he says. “As long as we meet the criteria of common values, strategic interests and shared interests of the peace in the Middle East, the United States won’t wash her hands of us. Disavowing us in the short term is impossible. In the long run, there could be a conflict over the issue of peace”.

Where will we end up if the United States distances itself from us because of the discord?

“Should such a thing happen, it will have catastrophic consequences for our economic, security and international status. It’s going to be a strategic disaster. Israel should weigh her actions out of understanding of her dependence on the United States. We must reach an agreement with the Palestinians as long as the U.S. is at our side. Should the United States not be by our side, the international community will impose on us a return to the ’67 lines, with a Palestinian state that has East Jerusalem as its capital. Everything is going to be way harder here without the U.S. beside us.”

No room for worry?

And in spite of the Egyptian precedent, there are those who believe that the United States will never forsake Israel. “Every American president opposed and will oppose the settlements, but this doesn’t mean he’ll cut assistance and cooperation,” Stuart Eizenstat, former Deputy Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration, said to Maariv. “Even in case of a showdown the aid will continue to flow”. Samuel Lewis, former ambassador to Israel and the head of the United States Institute of Peace, said a phone conversation from his house in the States: “There is no chance that the United States ever turns its back on Israel. The relationship between the U.S. and Israel is special. Start worrying about what’s up in Egypt. You don’t have reasons to worry regarding the United States.”

President Obama has already proven that he doesn’t have special feelings towards Israel.

“Obama has a different personality than President Bush, but this doesn’t mean he’s not supportive of Israel. I understand your concern, but this won’t happen. The United States will continue to stay an ally of Israel,” said Lewis.