What Geithner Took Back Home

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 4 June 2009
by Yang Bo (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eugene Tan. Edited by .
During his three-day visit in China, from beginning to end, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s every word and action was the “focus” of the media. “The safety of U.S. treasury bonds,” “The massive financial deficit in the White House,” “The exchange rate of the R.M.B.” – speculation on the topics Geithner might want to discuss were all over the place. And today, the important question is: What did Geithner take back home after his trip to China?

As the issuer of U.S. treasury bonds and the power holder of the U.S. Treasury, Geithner has naturally taken on the important responsibility of selling U.S. bonds. This was also one of the main reasons for his visit to China, according to mainstream media opinion. With regards to this, Geithner has put in a rather great effort.

In his speech at Peking University, Geithner listed some favorable statistics showing the recovery of the U.S. financial system, the improvement in consumer confidence and the slowdown in the drop of real estate prices. As he displayed his optimism toward the future recovery of the U.S. economy, he also made his stance clear on decreasing the government’s financial deficit, claiming that the financial deficit would be brought “down to a sustainable level over the medium term.”

In terms of controlling inflation, Geithner strongly supports Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, and believes that he has the ability to keep inflation at a lower, more stable level. Geithner addressed each of the key issues that have directly caused China to have concern about the safety of U.S. bonds: the financial deficit, debt, inflation, and economic recovery. Undoubtedly, he is trying to instill confidence in China, guarantee that the U.S. has the ability to repay debt and create some room for discussion in upcoming high-level meetings.

On the plane headed to China, Geithner stated that the U.S. economy is recovering and that China can feel at ease. It is easy to say China should just relax, but in practical terms, many problems exist. Before Geithner’s trip, the U.S. treasury issued a total of $100 billion in U.S. bonds over three consecutive days. After accumulating to a certain level, uncontrollably issuing bonds will cause inflation, and when the time comes, the U.S. dollar will not only depreciate to a large extent, along with a large-scale devaluing of China’s foreign exchange assets, but the economic recovery of the whole world will suffer the impacts as well. This will definitely make people suspicious: where is the safety in U.S. treasury bonds? What methods will the U.S. take to ensure that investments in the U.S. dollar are safe? Although Geithner wanted to instill confidence in the Chinese, what he ultimately took back to the U.S. was the anxiety of many people.

During his trip in China, Geithner constantly emphasized that the solution to global problems, including restructuring of the financial system, lies in cooperation between China and the U.S. If we put the economic relationship of China and the U.S. into perspective, we can see that it is not simply about buying or selling more U.S. bonds or about whether to institute a floating exchange rate for the R.M.B; it is about creating a win-win relationship.

On a deeper level, the strategic game between China and the U.S. has already become the controlling force over the development of both economies; it has also played a key role in the economic development of the world. After his trip, Geithner will inevitably have a more profound understanding of U.S.-China relations. As Obama’s special representative, Geithner will convey his experiences to Washington and to the U.S. people, and this will undoubtedly lay a strong foundation for the future, whether we are referring to the China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue, which will take place next month, or to the Obama administration’s future handling of U.S.-China issues. We can count this as the second “gift” that Geithner took back to the U.S.

The U.S. and China have already decided to hold the first session of the China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue in the U.S. at the end of July. Perhaps, this is the most substantial result that Geithner can take back to Obama.

Geithner has already left China. Certainly, as he boarded his plane back to Washington, he had a lot more on his mind than just an old photo of him taken in Beijing 28 years ago.


盖特纳带走了什么

三天的访华之行,从启程到踏上归途,美国财长盖特纳的一言一行成为媒体眼中的“焦点”。“美国国债安全”、“白宫巨额财政赤字”、“人民币汇率”……人们此前对盖特纳可能带来的议题的猜测铺天盖地。而今,盖特纳打道回府,他带走了什么呢?

作为美国国债发行操作方——美国财政部的掌权人,盖特纳自然而然地承担起推销美国国债的重任,这也是此前媒体普遍推测的其访华主要目的之一。盖特纳在这方面颇下了一番功夫。


  在北京大学的演讲中,盖特纳列举了美金融体系恢复、消费者信心改善、房价下跌放缓等多项表现良好的数据指标,展示其对美国经济复苏前景的乐观预期,同时在削减政府财政赤字方面也做出明确表态,称会在中期内将财政赤字降到“可持续的水平”。


  在控制通货膨胀方面,盖特纳更力挺美联储主席伯南克,认为其有能力将通胀控制在较低且稳定的水平。财政赤字、债务、通胀和经济复苏前景,盖特纳在这些直接导致中国对美国国债安全性存在忧虑的关键要素上的一一回应,无疑是在向中方灌输信心,为美国的偿债能力打保票,也给接下来的高层会晤创造了话语空间。


  盖特纳在来华的飞机上表示,“美国经济在复苏,请中国放心。” “放心”二字出口容易,落实到实践层面却面临很多问题。就在盖特纳行前,美国财政部连续三天发行了总计1000亿美元的国债。无节制的发债,累积到一定程度必将引发通货膨胀,届时不仅美元资产大幅贬值,中国的外汇资产可能出现大幅缩水,而且全球经济复苏也将遭到拖累。这不能不令人怀疑:美国国债的安全性究竟在哪里?美方要采取怎样的措施来确保对美元资产的投资安全?……如果说盖特纳希望带给中国更多的信心,那么他带走的,可能反而是人们的重重担忧。


  访华期间,盖特纳不断强调,包括金融系统修复等在内的全球性问题的解决,有赖于中美双方的合作。纵观当前的中美经济关系,绝非仅仅是增持或抛售美国国债、是否实现人民币汇率自由浮动所能覆盖的,而是互利共赢的关系。


  在更深层次上而言,中美之间的战略博弈已经成为主导双方经济等多个领域发展方向的牵制力量,并对世界经济发展产生举足轻重的作用。盖特纳此行过后,必然会在中美关系问题上有更深刻的体会。作为奥巴马的特别代表,这一体会也将传递给华盛顿,传递给更多普通美国民众。这无论对下月即将召开的“中美战略与经济对话”,还是对奥氏政府未来处理中美双边事务,都将发挥基础性的作用。这可看作盖特纳带走的第二件“礼物”。


  中美双方已就今年7月下旬在美国举行首轮中美战略与经济对话达成共识。这或许是盖特纳能够带给奥巴马的最具实质性的成果。


  盖特纳走了。相信他登上返回华盛顿的专机时,怀里装的绝不只是28年前在北京拍的一张老照片。(杨博)
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