Iran: The United States at an Impasse
Three months have passed since Donald Trump appointed himself the savior of the world by driving the mullahs out of Iran. Except his plan to do so "in three days" has dragged on and is now starting to feel like a quagmire. It has an aftertaste reminiscent of Vietnam, minus the ground troops. Which exit the U.S. president will find to save a seat in the next midterm elections remains a mystery.
This was three months ago. Donald Trump was going after Iran, and we were going to witness whatever we were going to witness. After ousting the Venezuelan president in early January, the U.S. president was going to continue his sweep of the world's dictators and take down the mullahs in Tehran. It was going to take three days, and the Cuban regime, next on the list, had better hold tight. We know where this story ends.
Although the U.S. military inflicted considerable damage on Iran and forced the regime to bow, it did not break. Even worse, it has become more radicalized, and the guardians of the revolution have come out the other side of these three months of war stronger than ever. Iranian civilians are the main victims of this failure by the U.S., which, for weeks now, has been negotiating an agreement that is taking longer to come to fruition with each passing day. On top of that, the whole world has been destabilized. Unhappy to have resisted, Tehran is raising the stakes and has a trick up its sleeve: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — which the Trump administration did not see coming from a mile away.
More Strikes?
Iran, with its finances depleted, is now attempting to obtain transit rights for cargo ships passing through the strait while also demanding the release of billions in frozen assets. It is uncertain whether the United States will give in, as Trump's strategy — or lack thereof — remains unpredictable. Another major issue concerns Tehran's capacity to obtain nuclear weapons, which could lead Washington to launch further strikes.
In the meantime, capitalizing on the White House's indecision, Israel is advancing its offensive in Lebanon, where it is, once again, the civilian population paying the price of Benjamin Netanyahu's warmongering mentality. Somewhere between sinful pride and culpable adventurism, this new, ill-prepared military operation in the Middle East underlines how incapable the United States is of drawing lessons from history.
This was three months ago. Donald Trump was going after Iran, and we were going to witness whatever we were going to witness. After ousting the Venezuelan president in early January, the U.S. president was going to continue his sweep of the world's dictators and take down the mullahs in Tehran. It was going to take three days, and the Cuban regime, next on the list, had better hold tight. We know where this story ends.
Although the U.S. military inflicted considerable damage on Iran and forced the regime to bow, it did not break. Even worse, it has become more radicalized, and the guardians of the revolution have come out the other side of these three months of war stronger than ever. Iranian civilians are the main victims of this failure by the U.S., which, for weeks now, has been negotiating an agreement that is taking longer to come to fruition with each passing day. On top of that, the whole world has been destabilized. Unhappy to have resisted, Tehran is raising the stakes and has a trick up its sleeve: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — which the Trump administration did not see coming from a mile away.
More Strikes?
Iran, with its finances depleted, is now attempting to obtain transit rights for cargo ships passing through the strait while also demanding the release of billions in frozen assets. It is uncertain whether the United States will give in, as Trump's strategy — or lack thereof — remains unpredictable. Another major issue concerns Tehran's capacity to obtain nuclear weapons, which could lead Washington to launch further strikes.
In the meantime, capitalizing on the White House's indecision, Israel is advancing its offensive in Lebanon, where it is, once again, the civilian population paying the price of Benjamin Netanyahu's warmongering mentality. Somewhere between sinful pride and culpable adventurism, this new, ill-prepared military operation in the Middle East underlines how incapable the United States is of drawing lessons from history.
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