Do Not Overreact to U.S. Sale of Arms to Taiwan

Published in Zaobao
(China) on 1 August 2010
by Si Ming (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Meghan McGrath. Edited by Jessica Boesl.
According to the Central News Agency (Taiwan) report, the U.S. Department of Defense announced today that the sale of 32 harpoon missiles to Taiwan (at a price of $43,846,554) has been awarded to the Boeing Company and is expected to be completed by June 2011.

After the news broke, there was once again mounting public indignation in mainland China, and warmongers have raised a huge clamor.

In fact, in this era of new global patterns, the U.S. arms sale to Taiwan can only be seen as a kind of diplomatic and political discourse; the purpose can only be to strive for a greater say in other China-related issues, but it will not change the balance of power in East Asia.

Taiwan checks and balances the U.S. to China's weight, and also checks and balances China's weight. Both countries are using Taiwan as a Tai Chi ball and nothing more.

Objectively speaking, Taiwan can have a cushioning and lubricating effect on the current state of affairs between China and the U.S., just as a bicycle axle affects the wheel. In fact, from an economic, cultural and international recognition standpoint, China's claim to Taiwan is already set as a fact, leaving only political conformity and the return of ritual significance. However, if China immediately uses the military to forcibly reclaim Taiwan, China will cause Taiwan to become pro-American, which will greatly increase the frequency of friction. Not only is it very likely to give people cause for gossip, but it also will create passivity in the international conversation. This is why China always attempts to foster peace.

The likelihood of China and the U.S. breaking out into war is next to nothing; after all, the two countries are seeking to further develop and stabilize their own international statuses. Therefore, the occurrence of military conflicts would not be a good thing. Even if, in the future, there is the possibility of a war, it is only because of an unexpected event on the part of one of these countries, or some other special situation. What's more, this movement of arms from the U.S. to eastern Asia can only be regarded by the two superpowers as a cup of water on a burning cart of firewood — to stuff the gaps between teeth is not enough.

Now, with the stakes and costs of war increasing daily, the strength of the two countries is equivalent, should it be the case that conflict breaks out. Both sides would suffer huge economic and social losses. In this case, economic prosperity, social stability, national strength and advanced technology create not only the most solid protective barrier, but also give one's own country its greatest profits.


据“中央社”报道,美国国防部今天宣布,出售给台湾、总价4384万6554美元的32具鱼叉导弹弹体,已经发包给波音公司(Boeing),预计2011年6月可以完成。

  消息一出,大陆网友再次群情激愤,鹰派言论又甚嚣尘上。

  其实,在这个世界新格局基本上成型的时代,美国对台军售只能看成一种外交上的政治话语,目的只可能是谋求在其它的涉华事务上获得更大的发言权,而不会是妄图借此改变东亚地区的势力对比。

  台湾是美国制衡中国的砝码,也是中国反制衡的砝码。两国只是借台湾在玩太极推球而已。

  客观上来说,目前的状态下的台湾可以在中美之间起到缓冲和润滑的作用,就跟自行车轮轴中的弹珠一样。其实,从经济、文化和世界认同来看,台湾属于中国已经是既定事实,剩下的只是政治上的整合和仪式意义上的回归。但如果马上武力强行收回台湾,中国不仅将会和周围的亲美国家圈短兵相接,以致摩擦的频率大大增加;而且极有可能落人口实,在国际会话中处于被动,这也是中国一直奉行和平演变的原因。

  中美爆发战争的可能性微乎其微,毕竟这对两个正在谋求进一步发展和国际地位进一步稳定的国家来说,发生军事上的摩擦都不是什么好事。就算将来有可能发生战争,只会是因为其中某国发生突然变故或者其它特殊事件。而且真要打起来,美国往东亚输送的这点武器,在两个大国之间的超级战争中只能算是杯水车薪,塞牙缝都不够。

  现在,战争的赌注和成本日益增加,实力接近量级相当的两个国家一旦爆发冲突,对双方都将造成巨大的经济和社会损失。在这种情况下,经济繁荣,社会稳定,国力强大,科技先进,才是最稳固的屏障,也能给本国带来最大的收益。
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