US, at a Loss in Middle East

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 17 September 2013
by Ren Weidong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Renee Loeffler. Edited by Rachel Smith.
In huge contrast to the violent reforms that followed the Cold War, Kosovo, Gulf and Afghan and Iraq wars, Russia and the United States have reached an agreement to ease the situation in Syria. In part, this is truly thanks to the intelligence and determination of U.S. leaders, but its basic reasoning is that the U.S. is unsatisfied with how politics in the Middle East, along with current political trends in the world, are playing out.

To strengthen and solidify its range of power, the U.S. certainly needs to overthrow Assad, as it did with Hussein and Gadhafi. It will undoubtedly support Syrian rebels employing its constant “democratic” standard of politics. The problem is that among the rebels — between those opposed to the U.S. and America's own stance against Islamic extremists and secular nationalists gaining power — it cannot find agents to support through the use of democratic power.

In this case, what good is democracy to America? Chemical weapons cannot be used in politics to carry out major policies and war strategies. Obviously, because of this, the U.S. supports democracy — however, not as a basic principle, but to assess gains and losses. Until now, America's goal has been to weaken Assad's regime without allowing the rebels to gain power. Thus, the situation in Syria continues to be at a deadlock, dragging out any changes.

The U.S. was already at a loss in 2011, when a wave of reforms began to sweep across the Middle East. These last 10 years, dictatorships that have collapsed and new governments formed with American democratic leadership have not evolved the way the U.S. had imagined. Although the U.S. has tried its best to politically control these new governments — such as by taking advantage of Gadhafi's overthrow — this time, the U.S. is not the leader in the reformations. Tracing the source, although this conflict is confusing and has changed repeatedly, it is the ideals of Islamic fundamentalists opposed to national secularists, independence versus foreign dependence and grassroots democracy against dictatorships. Domestically, the basic motive is to change social inequality, while internationally, it is to change the country's low status in international politics. It is obvious, as in the reforms for Saudi citizens, that they seek a new political administration and social system to develop their country. This is what Saudi Arabia has come to realize, and this has also shaken U.S. supremacy in the Middle East. America, of course, will not support this kind of democratic reform. However, it also cannot abandon democracy and publicly oppose reforms and, as a result, can only dodge questions, use empty words or hesitate over decisions.

In the conflict in Egypt, the U.S. publicly urged the Egyptian military to quickly reinstate democracy but, in essence, consented to so much that it even supported the elected President Morsi and let go of the pro-U.S. dictator Mubarak. This decision was not for the stability or democracy of Egypt but for the America to infiltrate deeper in order to gain the largest impact on the secular military, keeping it from changing 10 years of alliance, so that it could continue to have influential power and protect its economic and strategic interests. Therefore, the U.S. does not emphasize the appeal of democratic elections, trading its own interests for a principle that is not really a principle it holds in the first place.

In addition, the U.S. has always kept from asking anything about the implementation of democracy from the hereditary, part-feudal, part-capitalist Gulf monarchies, even helping their militaries to suppress democratic movements. America does not speak of these types of principles — above all else it works for its own interests, using ideology to engage in a power play that damages its political image and weakens support for it. As a result, many reformers and those who have been forced to reform are unsatisfied with America, and even Western allies are keeping their distance. The U.S. stands completely opposed to democratic reforms in the Middle East, which is the main reason it has lost political dominance.


任卫东:美国在中东进退失据
2013-09-17 02:36
环球时报 

美国与俄罗斯就叙利亚问题达成协议,缓解了叙利亚局势。这与冷战后科索沃战争、海湾战争、阿富汗和伊拉克等战争的狂飙突进形成巨大反差。这固然与美国领导人的智力和意志因素有关,但最根本的还是美国对中东政治现实和世界政治趋势的不适应。

  为了在中东巩固和扩大势力范围,美国毫无疑问需要像推翻萨达姆和卡扎菲那样推翻巴沙尔。按美国一贯的“民主”标准,美国无疑应该支持反对派。但问题是,叙利亚反对派中充斥着反对美国和美国反对的伊斯兰主义激进势力和世俗的民族主义激进势力,美国在所谓民主力量中几乎找不到自己的代理人。

  既然如此,这样的民主对美国有什么好处呢?把使用化学武器作为采取重大政治和战略行动的标准,这实在是政治无能的表现。显然,美国并非基于原则而支持民主,而只是权衡得失。就目前而言,美国的目标就是削弱巴沙尔政权,但也不让反对派得势,从而保持叙利亚的僵持局面,以拖待变。

-  事实上,从2011年中东爆发革命浪潮的一开始美国就进退失据。令数十年来依附美国的独裁者纷纷倒台的民主革命决非美国所乐见。尽管美国努力试图操控新上台的政治力量,顺势推翻了对美国三心二意的卡扎菲,但美国完全不是这场革命的主导力量。究其原因,这场革命虽然极端复杂并反复多变,但其基本性质是伊斯兰主义反对世俗主义,独立自主反对对外依附,草根民主反对独裁统治,其基本目的是对内改变不平等的社会结构,对外改变国家在现行国际体系中的底层地位。很明显,革命的阿拉伯民众试图寻求一种新的社会制度和发展模式。这是阿拉伯的觉醒,也是对美国中东霸权的动摇。对于这样的民主革命,美国当然不会支持。但又不能抛弃民主旗帜,公然露出反革命的真面目,于是只好躲躲闪闪,或口是心非,或举棋不定。

  在埃及问题上,美国口头上要求埃及军方尽快恢复民主,但实质上默许甚至支持其废黜民选总统穆尔西和释放前亲美独裁者穆巴拉克。这决非为了埃及的稳定,更不是为了埃及的民主,而是要利用被美渗透最深、受其影响最大的世俗力量军队来阻止埃及改变过去几十年的依附道路,延续美国对埃及的政治影响力,维护美国在埃及的经济和战略利益。于是,民主选举的神圣性不被美国强调了,利益代替了一切原本就不真实的原则。

  此外,美国从不要求最不民主的、完全世袭制的、半封建半资本主义的海湾君主国实行民主,甚至帮助它们武力镇压民主运动。美国这种不讲原则,实用主义,利益至上,玩弄权术的做法极大地损害了美国的政治形象,削弱了它的政治号召力。结果,许多国家的革命者和被革命者都对美国不满,甚至西方盟友也与其拉开了距离。在中东民主革命中,美国总体上站在反民主、反革命立场上,这是它丧失政治主导权的根本原因。(作者是中国现代国际关系研究院副研究员)

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