Why US Strategy in Middle East Is Sinking into Embarrassment

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 23 November 2015
by Liu Zhongmin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Victoria Branca.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited the Middle East on Nov. 22. It is reported that his visit focused on the issues of the violence between Israel and Palestine, as well as the Islamic State and the conflict in Syria, etc. Kerry's visit to the Middle East has garnered foreign interest and caused a lot of speculation. As the Middle East sinks into chaos, U.S. policy in the region is being attacked from all sides. Noam Chomsky, the famous political commentator, not long ago criticized the U.S. for creating a political black hole in the Middle East.

Since Obama has been in office, there has been an overall contraction in America's strategy in the Middle East. Avoiding chaos and seeking stability has been prominent in the [country's] highly cautious strikes on the Islamic State group, as well as its patient pursuance of Iranian nuclear negotiations. At the end of September this year, Russia began air strikes against the Islamic State group in Syria, and has thereby already caused very thorny feelings in America. After the terrorist attacks on Paris, it is even more clear that Obama's strategy in the Middle East has become an embarrassment, and essentially reflects the United States' strategic goal to maintain supremacy and useless power; but there are three major predicaments associated with the United States' limited methods for this.

First of all, there is the contradiction of ending the violence within Middle Eastern regions while the U.S. strategically withdraws from the Middle East. Since the turbulent changes in the Middle East began, there has been an intense resurgence of terrorism, a rapid reorganization of power in local regions, and deep strategic adjustments both inside and outside the region. These are deep changes to local structures in the Middle East, and the rate of change is profound. But with its withdrawal from the Middle East, the U.S. has no other choice but to focus on dealing with the old problems of its deep involvement in the Middle East: the Palestinian-Israeli issue, the Iranian nuclear issue, the typical problems following its withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, and — most of all — fixing the terrible mess left behind by the Bush administration. There has clearly been insufficient planning and serious flaws in its passive response to new problems. The U.S. has struggled to lead the way in balancing power among the four major traditional powers in the Arab world: the Arabs, the Turks, the Iranians and the Israelis. Now, Russia has also observed the vulnerabilities of the U.S.'s withdrawal from the Middle East, and has consequently undertaken action in Syria itself.

Second, there are contradictions between U.S. strategy in the Middle East and its multiple goals — contradictions between the values of diplomacy, pragmatism and realism. Today, despite the United States' strategic withdrawal, its goal of maintaining hegemony in the Middle East has not changed. At the same time, the goals of defending the security of allies, guaranteeing energy security, exporting democracy, fighting terrorism and guarding against regional hegemony, etc., often all restrict and impede one another. This then puts the U.S. in a predicament of being unable to fully focus its strategy in the Middle East on one issue without losing sight of the others.

Third, the strategies of the Middle Eastern allies of the U.S. in the region have fallen into crisis. Having Middle Eastern allies has long been America's strategic method for maintaining hegemony within the Middle East, but has also simultaneously been a serious burden on its strategy in the region and has meant that it has constantly been either training, utilizing, placating or denouncing those allies to form a level of balance between them. Currently, changes in relations between the U.S. and its ally Egypt exemplify the state of relations between the U.S. and its other allies. During the Cold War, due to the need to guarantee the safety of its ally Israel and to resist the Soviet Union, the U.S. worked hard to cultivate Egypt (a country with important influence in regional affairs in the Arab-Israeli conflict) as one of its own allies. But after the Arab Spring, the U.S. became concerned with the need to drive forward the exportation of democracy, and it mercilessly abandoned its long-term ally, the Mubarak regime. Later, due to its resentment that the Muslim Brotherhood had risen to power, the U.S. tacitly accepted the military coup d'état ousting the Morsi regime, but once again, this resulted in intense criticism from the Egyptian and Arabic populations.

Ultimately, the U.S. cannot concentrate on one issue without neglecting the other issues, and seldom meets the will of the people.


刘中民:美国中东战略为何陷入尴尬
美国国务卿克里当地时间22日前往中东访问,据悉他此行重点将集中在以巴暴力、伊斯兰国组织(IS)以及叙利亚冲突等问题。而克里在这个时候访问中东引发外界关注和不少猜测。由于中东目前陷入如此乱局,美国中东政策成为众矢之的,著名政治评论家乔姆斯基不久前批评美国制造了中东政治“黑洞”。

  自奥巴马执政以来,美国中东战略的总体特征是战略收缩、避乱求稳,这在近两年来突出体现在美国在打击IS问题上的高度谨慎以及对伊核谈判的耐心推进。俄罗斯于今年9月底出手对叙利亚的IS进行空袭,已着实令美国深感棘手。巴黎遭遇重大恐袭后,更凸显奥巴马的中东战略陷入尴尬,而本质上反映了美国谋求继续维持中东霸权的战略目标与实力不济、手段有限之间的困境,其具体表现主要有三。

  首先,中东地区格局剧烈变动与美国中东战略收缩之间的矛盾。中东变局以来,阿拉伯国家转型、恐怖主义强势反弹、地区力量对比和力量重组急剧变化、地区国家内外战略深入调整,都是中东地区格局变化之巨、变动之快的深刻体现。但在美国中东战略总体收缩的情况下,美国的战略精力仍不得不集中于美国深度介入的老问题,如巴以、伊核以及从伊拉克和阿富汗撤军等传统问题,尤其是收拾小布什政府留下的烂摊子,而对新问题明显存在预判不足、被动应对的严重缺陷。
在地区格局问题上,美国已很难在阿拉伯、土耳其、伊朗、以色列四大传统力量和阿拉伯世界内部形成美国主导的力量平衡结构。当前,俄罗斯也正是看准了美国中东战略收缩的软肋,进而在叙利亚问题上出手。

  其次,美国中东战略与多重目标之间的矛盾,其中最核心的矛盾是价值观外交与实用主义、现实主义外交之间的矛盾。当前,尽管美国在中东采取战略收缩,但维持美国中东地区霸权的目标并未改变。同时,在保护盟友安全、确保能源安全、民主输出、反恐和防扩散、防范地区霸权等具体目标之间往往相互制约、互相牵制,进而使美国的中东战略经常陷入顾此失彼的困境。

  第三,美国在中东的盟友战略陷入严重危机。盟友战略长期以来是美国维持中东霸权的重要手段,但同时也是美国中东战略的沉重包袱,使美国经常不断地在培育、利用、安抚、抛弃盟友之间进行艰难的平衡。眼下,美国与埃及盟友关系的变化构成了美国盟友战略困境的写照。

  在冷战时期,美国出于确保盟友以色列安全和对抗苏联的需要,极力将在阿以关系等地区事务上有重要影响的埃及培养成自己的盟友。但在“阿拉伯之春”后,美国先是为了适应推进民主输出的需要,无情抛弃作为长期盟友的穆巴拉克政权;后来又因不满穆斯林兄弟会上台,而默许军方通过政变废黜穆尔西政权,但又因此招致埃及民众和阿拉伯舆论的强烈批评。最后令美国顾此失彼,难得人心。(作者是上海外国语大学中东研究所教授)
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