Trump Was Supposed To Be a Model for Europe’s Right. Today, He Has Become Its Problem*
Trump was supposed to be a model for Europe's right. Today, he has become its problem.
From National Rally to Vox, from the Alternative for Germany to the Brothers of Italy, nationalist groups in Europe fear that close ties to the U.S. president will prevent them from taking power.
It was less than 10 years ago, and yet it feels like a long time since then. In February 2017, during a visit to New York, Marine Le Pen arrived for a coffee at Trump Tower. She hoped that the newly elected president would come down to meet her. But that didn't happen. Despite that, the French far right has struggled for years to maintain good relations with the MAGA movement. For her, it was a model of how to come to power. In 2018, Steve Bannon, then Donald Trump's closest adviser, was greeted with a standing ovation as the guest of honor at the National Rally convention.
"This is great news," National Rally formal leader Jordan Bardella said in November 2024, about the election victory of Trump. And in January of the following year, Louis Aliot, the former long-time partner of Le Pen and deputy head of the party, took part in the inauguration of Trump's second term in Washington.
Only 40% of National Rally Voters Feel Sympathy for Trump
But since then, the French far right's relationship with the American leader has soured. True, in April of last year, Trump came to Le Pen's defense after she was deprived of the right to participate in elections for five years over the embezzlement of European funds — and therefore, also of the fight for the Élysée Palace in 2027. But when the German [newspaper] Der Spiegel revealed that Washington was trying to punish the French judges who issued such a sentence, National Rally cut itself off from that initiative.
"This is unconfirmed, very dubious information," Bardella said. And in the months that followed, Le Pen sharply criticized Trump's initiatives, from threats to take over Greenland to the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and the disastrous Iranian campaign.
There is very cold calculation behind this strategy. A YouGov poll conducted in July found that 79% of the French have a negative assessment of Trump and only 15%, a positive one. Even among far-right voters, only 40% have a favorable view of the U.S. president. Le Pen, who now has a very real chance of winning the presidential election in April, cannot afford to have such an ally.
Anti-American sentiment in France has deep roots. Many share Gen. Charles de Gaulle's efforts to build a sovereign state in relation to Washington. This is also one of the fundamental tenets of the National Rally program. And this cannot be reconciled with Trump's permanent humiliation of European countries. The Iranian campaign itself is widely regarded as the cause of soaring prices, which has led to the pauperization of a large part of French society.
"It's a violation of sovereignty. We can never agree to that," Le Pen said after the U.S. abducted Venezuelan President Maduro, who is a hero to radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Nigel Farage Is Paying a High Price for His Friendship with Trump
In neighboring Spain, Vox leader Santiago Abascal faces a similar dilemma. In alliance with the moderate People's Party, he has a good chance to win power after the next parliamentary election, to be held no later than next spring. The Center of Sociological Research reports that 76.6% of Spaniards hold a bad opinion of Trump (15.7%, good), while 79.5% think the U.S. president is a "threat to peace." Abascal, unlike Le Pen, has until recently praised Trump's policies — on migration, for example. However, the images of Spanish-speaking Latinos deported in deplorable conditions by American ICE [agents] could hardly have been well-received in Spain.
Two months ago, the leader of Vox suddenly changed his position. He came to the defense of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni when, at the G7 summit in the French resort of Évian-les-Bains, Trump accused her of allegedly pestering him for a photo. This was the American president's revenge for Italy's refusal to get involved in the Iranian campaign. The Italian prime minister has long sought to act as an intermediary between the White House and European leaders. Trump even invited her to his private residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. But Meloni also faces tough parliamentary elections next year. During the four years of her rule, she has failed to lift the country out of its economic malaise. The trade war that the U.S. declared on Europe has certainly contributed to this.
The leader of the populist Reform UK, Nigel Farage, has learned the high price of allying with Trump. In Britain, Anglo-Saxon solidarity across the Atlantic has long since evaporated. According to YouGov, only 12% of King Charles III's subjects have a positive opinion of Trump, while 85% have a negative one. The friendship — if such a thing with Trump is possible at all — from which Farage has so far failed to distance himself, is therefore weighing on the fortunes of a party that could still count on 33% support as recently as last fall. It could have perhaps become an independent majority, but today it must be satisfied with 24%, which is less than the Labour Party's.
Germany's AfD is also distancing itself from Trump. The party, which the other parties along the Rhine have kept behind a political "cordon sanitaire"**, has long welcomed support from across the Atlantic. At a security conference in Munich last February, Vice President JD Vance made a passionate appeal in defense of the German far right. He also met with one of the group's leaders, Alice Weidel. Elon Musk conducted the interview with her on his internet platform, X. However, the alliance with the completely unpredictable Trump does not help the AfD build the image of a credible party ready to take power, at least at the level of some German states. Only 9% of German respondents had a positive assessment of the U.S. president, while 88% were negative.
In Poland, the ratings of the American leader have not plummeted as dramatically, but they're also getting worse. According to the Pew Research Center, only 29% of Poles trust the U.S. president, compared with 35% a year ago and 75% when Joe Biden was in office. In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, Karol Nawrocki unexpectedly appeared with Trump in the Oval Office. At that time, Nawrocki's staff considered it an asset that secured his victory [in the Polish presidential election]. Perhaps he would change his strategy today.
*Editor's note: This article is available in its original Polish with a paid subscription.
**Editor's note: A "cordon sanitaire" is the refusal of one or more political parties to cooperate with certain other political parties.
From National Rally to Vox, from the Alternative for Germany to the Brothers of Italy, nationalist groups in Europe fear that close ties to the U.S. president will prevent them from taking power.
It was less than 10 years ago, and yet it feels like a long time since then. In February 2017, during a visit to New York, Marine Le Pen arrived for a coffee at Trump Tower. She hoped that the newly elected president would come down to meet her. But that didn't happen. Despite that, the French far right has struggled for years to maintain good relations with the MAGA movement. For her, it was a model of how to come to power. In 2018, Steve Bannon, then Donald Trump's closest adviser, was greeted with a standing ovation as the guest of honor at the National Rally convention.
"This is great news," National Rally formal leader Jordan Bardella said in November 2024, about the election victory of Trump. And in January of the following year, Louis Aliot, the former long-time partner of Le Pen and deputy head of the party, took part in the inauguration of Trump's second term in Washington.
Only 40% of National Rally Voters Feel Sympathy for Trump
But since then, the French far right's relationship with the American leader has soured. True, in April of last year, Trump came to Le Pen's defense after she was deprived of the right to participate in elections for five years over the embezzlement of European funds — and therefore, also of the fight for the Élysée Palace in 2027. But when the German [newspaper] Der Spiegel revealed that Washington was trying to punish the French judges who issued such a sentence, National Rally cut itself off from that initiative.
"This is unconfirmed, very dubious information," Bardella said. And in the months that followed, Le Pen sharply criticized Trump's initiatives, from threats to take over Greenland to the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and the disastrous Iranian campaign.
There is very cold calculation behind this strategy. A YouGov poll conducted in July found that 79% of the French have a negative assessment of Trump and only 15%, a positive one. Even among far-right voters, only 40% have a favorable view of the U.S. president. Le Pen, who now has a very real chance of winning the presidential election in April, cannot afford to have such an ally.
Anti-American sentiment in France has deep roots. Many share Gen. Charles de Gaulle's efforts to build a sovereign state in relation to Washington. This is also one of the fundamental tenets of the National Rally program. And this cannot be reconciled with Trump's permanent humiliation of European countries. The Iranian campaign itself is widely regarded as the cause of soaring prices, which has led to the pauperization of a large part of French society.
"It's a violation of sovereignty. We can never agree to that," Le Pen said after the U.S. abducted Venezuelan President Maduro, who is a hero to radical left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Nigel Farage Is Paying a High Price for His Friendship with Trump
In neighboring Spain, Vox leader Santiago Abascal faces a similar dilemma. In alliance with the moderate People's Party, he has a good chance to win power after the next parliamentary election, to be held no later than next spring. The Center of Sociological Research reports that 76.6% of Spaniards hold a bad opinion of Trump (15.7%, good), while 79.5% think the U.S. president is a "threat to peace." Abascal, unlike Le Pen, has until recently praised Trump's policies — on migration, for example. However, the images of Spanish-speaking Latinos deported in deplorable conditions by American ICE [agents] could hardly have been well-received in Spain.
Two months ago, the leader of Vox suddenly changed his position. He came to the defense of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni when, at the G7 summit in the French resort of Évian-les-Bains, Trump accused her of allegedly pestering him for a photo. This was the American president's revenge for Italy's refusal to get involved in the Iranian campaign. The Italian prime minister has long sought to act as an intermediary between the White House and European leaders. Trump even invited her to his private residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. But Meloni also faces tough parliamentary elections next year. During the four years of her rule, she has failed to lift the country out of its economic malaise. The trade war that the U.S. declared on Europe has certainly contributed to this.
The leader of the populist Reform UK, Nigel Farage, has learned the high price of allying with Trump. In Britain, Anglo-Saxon solidarity across the Atlantic has long since evaporated. According to YouGov, only 12% of King Charles III's subjects have a positive opinion of Trump, while 85% have a negative one. The friendship — if such a thing with Trump is possible at all — from which Farage has so far failed to distance himself, is therefore weighing on the fortunes of a party that could still count on 33% support as recently as last fall. It could have perhaps become an independent majority, but today it must be satisfied with 24%, which is less than the Labour Party's.
Germany's AfD is also distancing itself from Trump. The party, which the other parties along the Rhine have kept behind a political "cordon sanitaire"**, has long welcomed support from across the Atlantic. At a security conference in Munich last February, Vice President JD Vance made a passionate appeal in defense of the German far right. He also met with one of the group's leaders, Alice Weidel. Elon Musk conducted the interview with her on his internet platform, X. However, the alliance with the completely unpredictable Trump does not help the AfD build the image of a credible party ready to take power, at least at the level of some German states. Only 9% of German respondents had a positive assessment of the U.S. president, while 88% were negative.
In Poland, the ratings of the American leader have not plummeted as dramatically, but they're also getting worse. According to the Pew Research Center, only 29% of Poles trust the U.S. president, compared with 35% a year ago and 75% when Joe Biden was in office. In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, Karol Nawrocki unexpectedly appeared with Trump in the Oval Office. At that time, Nawrocki's staff considered it an asset that secured his victory [in the Polish presidential election]. Perhaps he would change his strategy today.
*Editor's note: This article is available in its original Polish with a paid subscription.
**Editor's note: A "cordon sanitaire" is the refusal of one or more political parties to cooperate with certain other political parties.
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