Trump Has Miscalculated Again Regarding US Arms Sales to Taiwan
The U.S. president described long-standing arms shipments to the East Asian island as “a good negotiation card” in dealings with China. That’s short-sighted.
For decades, the U.S. has been Taiwan’s protector, largely due to arms shipments to the island threatened by China. Now Donald Trump, the great dealmaker, is challenging that very stance. After his summit with Xi Jinping, Trump said those arms are “a good negotiation card” in the power struggle with Beijing. Is he serious?
It’s unlikely the U.S. will stop supplying weapons to Taiwan. When Beijing threatens to invade the island it views as a breakaway province, U.S. arms are what chiefly deter a takeover. Washington will continue to sell to Taipei; even a Trump administration will not materially alter that policy.
However, using U.S. arms sales as a bargaining chip in the first place is short-sighted. By doing so, Trump is opening a can of worms Washington would be better off leaving closed.
Legal Obligations
Why? The People’s Republic has always been fundamentally opposed to these arms sales. In 1979, the U.S. made the sales a legal obligation under the Taiwan Relations Act, and, subsequently, Washington even promised Taipei it would not consult with Beijing about them. So, why break with a long‑standing policy now? For Beijing, Taiwan is not negotiable anyway.
Turning the arms sales into a talking point erodes Taiwan’s trust in the United States as its protector. In reality, Trump’s statements are an own goal. They weaken the policy of deterrence toward Taiwan and increase the risk of a military conflict — an outcome certainly not in Washington’s interest.
For decades, the U.S. has been Taiwan’s protector, largely due to arms shipments to the island threatened by China. Now Donald Trump, the great dealmaker, is challenging that very stance. After his summit with Xi Jinping, Trump said those arms are “a good negotiation card” in the power struggle with Beijing. Is he serious?
It’s unlikely the U.S. will stop supplying weapons to Taiwan. When Beijing threatens to invade the island it views as a breakaway province, U.S. arms are what chiefly deter a takeover. Washington will continue to sell to Taipei; even a Trump administration will not materially alter that policy.
However, using U.S. arms sales as a bargaining chip in the first place is short-sighted. By doing so, Trump is opening a can of worms Washington would be better off leaving closed.
Legal Obligations
Why? The People’s Republic has always been fundamentally opposed to these arms sales. In 1979, the U.S. made the sales a legal obligation under the Taiwan Relations Act, and, subsequently, Washington even promised Taipei it would not consult with Beijing about them. So, why break with a long‑standing policy now? For Beijing, Taiwan is not negotiable anyway.
Turning the arms sales into a talking point erodes Taiwan’s trust in the United States as its protector. In reality, Trump’s statements are an own goal. They weaken the policy of deterrence toward Taiwan and increase the risk of a military conflict — an outcome certainly not in Washington’s interest.
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