Avoiding American Debt Default with a Compromise on Thin Ice

Published in Yomiuri
(Japan) on 2 August 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Kenny Nagata. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
President Obama consented to a plan with both political parties that will raise the debt ceiling for the American government. The American debt is legally limited to $14.3 trillion (approximately 1.1 quadrillion yen); the final date to raise the limit was August 2.

It is welcome news, coming as the time limit approached, that they finally came to an agreement and avoided the worst case scenario of a default, when funds on hand would not be enough to cover the national debt.

If they had fallen into default, acceptance of the dollar as the reserve currency would have rapidly decreased, value in principled countries and global financial institutions that back American debt would have declined and confusion would have reigned in the financial markets.

In the foreign exchange market, pressure to sell the dollar eased as a result of the relieving news and the sudden appreciation of the yen against the dollar has temporarily subsided. Altogether, stock prices in Japan and around Asia rose. They wished for stability in the financial markets.

According to the president, the deal consisted of cutting the budget deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next ten years and will implement the raise of the debt ceiling in two steps.

First, it will cut annual expenditures by $900 billion and raise the debt ceiling by the same amount. Furthermore, a nonpartisan Congressional committee will be established and by the end of the year will decide on a plan to cut $1.5 trillion from the budget deficit and similarly raise the debt ceiling.

Both the House and Senate should quickly approve a bill based on mutual agreement and present it for the president’s signature. The focus from here on out is the budget deficit reduction plan discussed by the nonpartisan committee.

In last year’s midterm elections, the concern from the opposing Republican Party’s conservative Tea Party came in the form of opposition to a raise on taxes. The difference in opinion was vast between them and the president and Democratic Party, which wanted a balanced financial reform of expenditure cuts and increased taxes.

The question is whether or not they will be able to agree on an effective budget deficit plan, as the issue will become entangled with next fall’s presidential election. Tax increases will most certainly be a focal point.

There is also a chance that the rating agencies could downgrade American debt if the budget deficit talks end insufficiently, due to the difficulty in rationally discussing opposing views between the parties. That possibility causes worries that could influence the global market.

The president must demonstrate his leadership ability in order to achieve healthy finances. Congress’ responsibility is also exceedingly important.

Meanwhile, the pressure on Japan due to the highly valued yen is continuing and, at nearly a historically high 76 yen to the dollar, is relentless.

A highly valued yen hinders revenue from export corporations and stands in the way of an economic rebound. Speeding up overseas manufacturing as a counter-measure to the strong yen would lead to a hollow industry. Each corporation needs to improve its domestic manufacturing and work on strategies to combat a highly valued yen. The government should also expand its support.


オバマ米大統領は、米国政府の借金枠である債務上限を引き上げることで与野党と合意した。

米国政府の債務は、法定上限の14・3兆ドル(約1100兆円)に達し、引き上げ期限が2日に迫っていた。

期限切れ寸前に、ようやく妥協が成立し、国債の償還資金がなくなる債務不履行(デフォルト)という最悪の事態を回避できたことを歓迎したい。

デフォルトに陥れば、基軸通貨ドルの信認が急落し、主要国や世界の金融機関が保有する米国債の価格が暴落して、金融市場の混乱を招いただろう。

外国為替市場では、安堵(あんど)感からドル売り圧力が弱まり、急激な円高・ドル安にいったん歯止めがかかった。日本やアジアなどの株価も軒並み上昇に転じた。金融市場の一層の安定が望まれる。

大統領によると、合意内容は、10年間で2・4兆ドルの財政赤字削減と、同規模の債務上限引き上げを2段階で実施する。

まず、0・9兆ドルの歳出削減とセットで、債務上限を同額ただちに引き上げる。

さらに議会に設置する超党派委員会が年内に1・5兆ドルの財政赤字削減策をまとめ、債務上限を同じく引き上げるというものだ。

上下両院は合意に基づいた法案を速やかに可決し、大統領の署名を経て成立させるべきだ。

今後の焦点は、超党派委員会が協議する赤字削減策である。

昨年の中間選挙で躍進した野党共和党保守系の「茶会党」は、増税に反対している。歳出カットと増税などを組み合わせた財政再建を目指したい大統領や、民主党の主張との隔たりは大きい。

来秋の大統領選への駆け引きが絡み、実効性のある赤字削減策で合意できるかどうか。増税
の是非が争点になろう。

与野党の攻防で協議が難航し、赤字削減が不十分に終わると、格付け会社が米国債の格下げに踏み切る可能性もある。世界の市場に及ぼす影響が懸念される。

財政健全化へ、大統領は指導力を発揮しなければならない。議会の責任も極めて重い。

一方、円高圧力は続いており、1ドル=76円台の歴史的な円高水準は日本にとって厳しい。

円高は輸出企業の収益を圧迫し、景気回復の足を引っ張る。円高対策で海外生産が加速すると、産業空洞化も招く。各企業は国内生産を維持しながら、超円高に対応できる戦略を練ってほしい。政府も支援を拡充すべきだ。
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