How Does the Sino-US Relationship “Develop with Stability” in 2012?

This year, the primary tasks of Sino-U.S. relationship are to “achieve stability,” to stabilize the situation while dealing with both internal difficulties and external changes, and to avoid blaming each other as the main problem and main reason for problems.

After a period of strengthening stability in 2009 followed by significant instability in 2010, Sino-U.S. relations experienced many difficulties in 2011: the stable relationship was affected by the Taiwan arms sales and the South China Sea issues and a new round of strategic competition. In 2012, a special historical point, the Sino-U.S. relationship will be disrupted by more structural risks and uncertain factors. Only facing the problems correctly and bravely and taking steps to solve the problems can ensure that Sino-U.S. relationship will “develop with stability” in this capricious year.

For the Sino-U.S. relationship, 2012 will be an extremely complicated year, not only because both countries will be experiencing president elections, but also because significant changes in the global political environment and bilateral relationship structure will occur. In terms of the global political environment, not only “East Change” (Asia-Pacific changes), “West Chaos” (Middle East chaos), “North Fall” (developed countries’ economic decline), and “South Rise” (the growth of developing countries) will cause rapid changes, but also the global chain of effects will continue, exerting influences along the lines of of the “Arab Spring,” “European Summer,” “Wall Street Autumn,” and “Moscow Winter.” The international situation in 2012 will be more unpredictable and complicated than that in 2011. In terms of bilateral relationship, both countries’ cooperation in anti-terrorism, anti-expansion and co-administration of “third party” will either bring stability or cause a bottleneck which diminishes the positive effects; the competition between the two countries will increase because the power gap is diminishing, the power focus is moving east, and the two countries have different opinions on maintaining order in Asia. Especially under the gloomy global economy, China and the U.S. will face not only the maintaining or increase of the economy, but also the difficulties of deepening the revolution of economic structure. Needless to say, the simultaneous occurrences and influences of these internal and external challenges have never appeared before and have created the most severe situation between China and U.S. since the Cold War.

In 2012, China and U.S. will face the following “common or discriminatory” challenges. The first one is Geo changes. Several economic and political plates on earth will continue to shift and herald a new era of Geoeconomy and Geopolitics. The second one is the debate over routes. In terms of how the global economy can be disentangled and whether the development mode is good or not, the debate between the two parties in the U.S., the western countries, and oriental countries will continue the confrontation. The third one is the pain of transformation. The continuing crisis exposes and triggers the structural imbalance of politics, the economy, and society in many countries. Many countries will have to make difficult decisions under circumstances in which development is diminishing, governmental authority is decreasing, and nationalism and democratization are rising. The fourth one is the difficulties of administration. Sovereign nations encounter challenges over social administration, while inefficient countries will even suffer leadership conflicts. All these factors will significantly challenge the Sino-U.S. relationship. If these factors are not handled well, Sino-U.S. relationship can not avoid suffering deeper conflicts and fluctuations, which are not good for either countries or for the world.

Therefore, the main task of Sino-U.S. relationship in 2012 will be to “achieve stability”. Both countries should stabilize the situation in their internal difficulties and external changes, avoid blaming each other, and exert energy to solve domestic issues and build a good foundation of Sino-U.S. relationship. Hence, China should enhance three awareness: 1. awareness of crisis: China should realize the severe situations and the risks of Sino-U.S. relation; 2. awareness of coordination: China should focus more on coordinating with various departments, methods, access, and understanding of Sino-U.S. relationship; 3. awareness of enterprise: China should improve administration and prevention of a crisis and should think about looking for opportunities in a crisis and opening cooperation in new fields, which can lead to the “development of stability” in Sino-U.S. relationship.

The author is the vice chair of the American Institute of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations