How Does the Sino-US Relationship “Develop with Stability” in 2012?

Published in Sina
(China) on 2 January 2012
by Wang Honggang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yipeng Xie. Edited by Katerina Kobylka.
This year, the primary tasks of Sino-U.S. relationship are to “achieve stability,” to stabilize the situation while dealing with both internal difficulties and external changes, and to avoid blaming each other as the main problem and main reason for problems.

After a period of strengthening stability in 2009 followed by significant instability in 2010, Sino-U.S. relations experienced many difficulties in 2011: the stable relationship was affected by the Taiwan arms sales and the South China Sea issues and a new round of strategic competition. In 2012, a special historical point, the Sino-U.S. relationship will be disrupted by more structural risks and uncertain factors. Only facing the problems correctly and bravely and taking steps to solve the problems can ensure that Sino-U.S. relationship will “develop with stability” in this capricious year.

For the Sino-U.S. relationship, 2012 will be an extremely complicated year, not only because both countries will be experiencing president elections, but also because significant changes in the global political environment and bilateral relationship structure will occur. In terms of the global political environment, not only “East Change” (Asia-Pacific changes), “West Chaos” (Middle East chaos), “North Fall” (developed countries’ economic decline), and “South Rise” (the growth of developing countries) will cause rapid changes, but also the global chain of effects will continue, exerting influences along the lines of of the “Arab Spring,” “European Summer,” “Wall Street Autumn,” and “Moscow Winter.” The international situation in 2012 will be more unpredictable and complicated than that in 2011. In terms of bilateral relationship, both countries’ cooperation in anti-terrorism, anti-expansion and co-administration of “third party” will either bring stability or cause a bottleneck which diminishes the positive effects; the competition between the two countries will increase because the power gap is diminishing, the power focus is moving east, and the two countries have different opinions on maintaining order in Asia. Especially under the gloomy global economy, China and the U.S. will face not only the maintaining or increase of the economy, but also the difficulties of deepening the revolution of economic structure. Needless to say, the simultaneous occurrences and influences of these internal and external challenges have never appeared before and have created the most severe situation between China and U.S. since the Cold War.

In 2012, China and U.S. will face the following “common or discriminatory” challenges. The first one is Geo changes. Several economic and political plates on earth will continue to shift and herald a new era of Geoeconomy and Geopolitics. The second one is the debate over routes. In terms of how the global economy can be disentangled and whether the development mode is good or not, the debate between the two parties in the U.S., the western countries, and oriental countries will continue the confrontation. The third one is the pain of transformation. The continuing crisis exposes and triggers the structural imbalance of politics, the economy, and society in many countries. Many countries will have to make difficult decisions under circumstances in which development is diminishing, governmental authority is decreasing, and nationalism and democratization are rising. The fourth one is the difficulties of administration. Sovereign nations encounter challenges over social administration, while inefficient countries will even suffer leadership conflicts. All these factors will significantly challenge the Sino-U.S. relationship. If these factors are not handled well, Sino-U.S. relationship can not avoid suffering deeper conflicts and fluctuations, which are not good for either countries or for the world.

Therefore, the main task of Sino-U.S. relationship in 2012 will be to “achieve stability”. Both countries should stabilize the situation in their internal difficulties and external changes, avoid blaming each other, and exert energy to solve domestic issues and build a good foundation of Sino-U.S. relationship. Hence, China should enhance three awareness: 1. awareness of crisis: China should realize the severe situations and the risks of Sino-U.S. relation; 2. awareness of coordination: China should focus more on coordinating with various departments, methods, access, and understanding of Sino-U.S. relationship; 3. awareness of enterprise: China should improve administration and prevention of a crisis and should think about looking for opportunities in a crisis and opening cooperation in new fields, which can lead to the “development of stability” in Sino-U.S. relationship.

The author is the vice chair of the American Institute of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations


 今年中美关系首要任务是“维稳”,在内困外变中稳住大局,防止把对方当成主要问题或问题主要原因。

  在经历2009年的高开高走、2010年的激烈震荡之后,2011年的中美关系也可谓困难重重:一度平静下来的两国关系,又在下半年受对台军售、南海争端等事件牵累再起波澜,新一轮战略博弈悄然开启。展望2012年这一特殊的历史节点,恐怕将有更多结构性风险和不确定因素困扰中美关系。唯有正视问题、迎难而上、主动作为,才能确保变局之年的中美关系“稳中有进”。

  对中美关系而言,2012年将是异常复杂的一年。这不仅因为两国都要大选换届,更重要的是整体国际环境、双边关系结构在同时发生深刻变化。从国际环境看,不仅“东变”(亚太之变)、“西乱”(中东之乱)、“北降”(发达国家经济疲软)、“南升”(新兴国家群体崛起)引发的格局变化将加速发展,以“阿拉伯之春”、“欧洲之夏”、“华尔街之秋”、“莫斯科之冬”为标志的全球连锁风潮也将持续发酵,并引发一系列后续效应,2012年的国际形势将比2011年更加复杂难测。从双边关系看,两国在反恐、防扩和共管“第三方”等方面的合作,或趋于常态,或面临瓶颈,拉动效应持续减弱;而双方在经济、政治和安全方面的竞争,则因两国实力对比日益缩小、世界权势重心加速东移、双方地区秩序构想分歧凸显而进一步加剧。尤其是在世界经济前景暗淡的情况下,中美两国都面临既要维持或提振经济增长、又要深化经济结构改革的重大难题。可以说,这些内外挑战同时出现、交互作用的情况,不仅近年未有,甚至是自冷战结束以来双边关系所经历的最严峻局面。

  2012年,中美两国还将面临如下“共同但有区别”的挑战。一是地缘之变。全球几大经济和政治板块将继续深刻变化,开启新的地缘政治与地缘经济时代;二是路线之争。围绕世界经济出路何在、发展模式孰优孰劣等重大问题,美国内两党、西方国家内部、西方与非西方国家之间的争论会进一步升温;三是转型之痛。持续的危机揭示并激化各国政、经和社会的结构性失衡,各国不得不在发展动力减退、政府权威削弱、民族和民权主义抬头的情况下艰难决策;四是治理之难。不仅主权国家的社会治理难度增加,原本效率就不高的地区治理和全球治理更会群龙无首或群龙相争。这些不确定因素将极大考验处于转型磨合期的中美关系。如处理不好,中美关系难免进一步波折震荡,不仅对双方不利,对世界也非利好消息。

  因此,2012年中美关系的首要任务是“维稳”,在内困、外变中稳住大局,防止把对方当成主要问题或问题的主要原因,为真正搞好各自国内的紧迫议题腾出精力、打好基础。为此,中国应强化三种意识:一是危机意识,充分认识到2012年内外形势的严峻性和中美关系的阶段性风险;二是统筹意识,在对美工作中更注重多部门、多手段、多途径、多层次协调并举;三是进取意识,既要做好危机管理,更要主动做好危机预防,并开动脑筋,危中寻机,开拓合作新领域,实现中美关系“稳中有进”。
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