What Will Be the Consequences of the Democratic Debate on Tomorrow’s Nevada Caucuses?

Wednesday night’s debate was the first one during the Democratic electoral campaign that Michael Bloomberg participated in, and it did not disappoint. The debate, I mean, because the former New York mayor emerged bruised and beaten. It is no coincidence that at least three of the five candidates who have debated each other time and again since June 2019, already eight months in, had their best night on Wednesday. The Nevada debate was by far the fiercest, most dynamic and, ultimately, most passionate one of this long race.

I am referring to Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. I’ll start with the last: The former vice president has been performing poorly since this race began. It is not without reason that he has lost more than 20 points in the voting intention polls since last June. However, this time he did well. Yes, well. Not incredibly, but he did not flounder in his usual mediocrity. And next to Bloomberg, he even seemed quite leftist.

Sanders, for his part, endured harsh attacks from his moderate opponents for leading in the polls. Bloomberg even called him a “communist,” which evoked a “whoa, whoa, whoa” from the veteran Vermont senator. But Sanders managed not only to avoid struggling, but also to offer his best version to weather the storm.

And, finally, Warren. The Massachusetts senator shook off the turbulence into which her campaign had entered when she fell in the polls. It was her left hook that sent Bloomberg to the floor when she questioned him about the non-disclosure agreements that the multibillionaire has signed with women who sued him for workplace harassment or for sexist remarks. “How many [agreements] is that?” she insisted in response to the feigned deafness of the ninth richest person in the world.

On the other hand, it would be unfair to call Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar losers. But at a time when Biden has lost endorsements and Bloomberg is buying them with his daily investment of $7 million in advertising, the terse exchange of personal attacks between the two did not help them; especially when they are competing for the same moderate voters. In any case, a tie in points in the ring benefits Buttigieg, who is third in the polls in Nevada.

When the Democrats are gathering in state gymnasiums and venues to elect their leaders, though, Bloomberg will not be eligible, because he has opted to risk it all on Super Tuesday, March 3. So we will have to see what the new polls say.

After his good performance, Biden may manage to recover from his humiliating fourth and fifth-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively. The South Carolina primaries to be held on Saturday, Feb. 29 will be crucial for him, given that in that state, 60% of Democratic voters are black, and the assumption is that Barack Obama’s former vice president will take that group by storm.

Further to the left, Sanders has no need to worry, as he has a solid lead in the polls – double that of Biden and Buttigieg in the Nevada polls – and he emerged from this debate stronger. Warren should improve her results after her solid performance on Wednesday, but how much? Because it is difficult to imagine that one good debate on its own can get her campaign back on track.